Member Info for Mirasol

Nothing strange - I think I was in Florida at the time with friends - but here's a more recent one (which I moderated) on production levels - same result

EVERYONE was far too optimistic - interestingly by the same margins

The Uber- optimists are 10 times too high
The Dark Masked trolls are 2 times too high

So if Penguins says he reckons it'll be 0.3p it'll probably be 0.15 p and if TrollHunter says 10 p it might reach 0.5p

Poster HH1 HH2z Total

Tymers 3000 <400
Scallywag3 620 820 1440 400-600
Sting69 560 650 1210 500-700
Ibug 400 500 900 600-800
Mullins 410 420 850 700-900
BLSHFTW 825 800-1000
Mirasol 400 400 800 900-1100
Ohmetoe 780 1000-1200
Tetrolite 360 410 770 1100-1300
Profit00 320 380 700 1200-1400
Skwizz 600 1300-1500
Captain Stanley 250 320 570 1400-1600
Penguins 450 1500-1700
Backwoodsman 400 >1500
Mickybee 1

Troll hunter was 20.7 p and young 10pTymers was being restrained at 8p

and we have lost so many posters (at least under these names)

... at the going down of the sun and in the morning WE WILL REMEMBER THEM

Even the worst prediction (Seadoc) was 0.48p - and this morning we're at 0.22p

UKOG price prediction 31/12/2019 (23.59pm)Today 09:52
Entry Now Closed Good Luck On Your Predictions Entries !!!)

Lonely_Shooter: 33p
TrollHunter2: 20.7p
Legalease: 20p
DavidWK: 13p
Free-Money: 11.73p
Vaghellis: 9.6p
SandyBugler: 8.86p
johnnybbad: 8.09p
Ontheotherhand: 8.04p
Tymers: 8p
TheReverand: 7.8p
Dinero: 7.6p
Strummer: 6.73p
Stockraiser: 6.66p
LifeO'Reilly: 6.60p
wilsona07: 6.5p
Redheadedrager: 6.5p
GoldmanSachs1: 6p
andyparkins: 5.7p
Bubafatz: 5.5p
scooterstan1: 5.1p
JTTALV: 4.80p
northfork: 4.77
jmhy: 4.6p
Vulcan998: 4.5p
robbiec1480: 4.30p
scottydott: 4.27p
Nippy: 4.2p
****neyles: 4.17p
Fufighter: 4.15p
Mkx007: 4p
Joey86: 4p
wasred: 3.9p
Plasmerman: 3.9p
Ngapali: 3.88
soupy61: 3.81p
InvesterInvester: 3.8p
Tobep8: 3.8p
BIGHOW: 3.75p
s7eve: 3.75p
Petercraigscot: 3.65p
mayforddriver: 3.57p
Tetrolite: 3.55p
Gilders01: 3.50p
biscuit68: 3.45p
JimmyRustler: 3.33p
roganjt: 3.25p
chromeinvestor: 3.20p
james-darby: 3.2p
kernowlad: 3.15p
Greggie3383: 3.15p
Spider11: 3p
Phil7390: 2.98p
GSYMAN: 2.95p
Stocktaker01: 2.92p
Groover: 2.86p
oneandonly1: 2.75p
Lancs-Lad: 2.65p
oilybloke: 2.60p
Lionsden59: 2.57p
Ohmetoe: 2.55p
Haybob: 2.54p
copland: 2.53p
Garrold: 2.48p
Justdabbling: 2.41p
Ste_J: 2.40p
Rmnm: 2.38p
Sorpresa: 2.33p
hikeaholick: 2.32p
ipadtrader: 2.30p
Cardinal3: 2.25p
Joeyjoejoe: 2.20p
CaptainStanley: 2.20p
Teelin36: 2.15p
Slaine202: 2.15p
breconchap: 2.15p
ben1093w1: 2.12p
TheWildcard: 2.10
robone: 2.05p
Neostars: 2p
FootieladBaz: 1.99p
JRoiler: 1.95p
Ongold: 1.89p
max19: 1.86
Poole-Gems: 1.85p
Geode: 1.84p
ertfed5: 1.80p
Labbloke: 1.77p
Yorkshireman1954: 1.76p
Ttso: 1.75p
Yare: 1.73p
merlin_andrew: 1.68p
loadsawedge: 1.68p
gezza: 1.66p
Jeremiah99: 1.63p
Bigjamie: 1.61p
DMac1973: 1.60p
FJones: 1.56p
MickyBee: 1.55p
Ashes999: 1.54p
Ninetails: 1.50p
Crocqman: 1.48p
Handy111: 1.46p
Ewqwe1234: 1.45p
RupertBear : 1.42p
toftshaw: 1.39p
Qwerty59: 1.35p
figaro3: 1.30p
Beevorma: 1.30p
LeoLazarus: 1.27p
Hully145: 1.25p
rich3648: 1.23p
ANSELMO: 1.21p
Skwizz: 1.20p
Rosewall: 1.16p
TimeNotTiming: 1.15p
daltry: 1.15p
fiftypoundnote: 1.12p
Insidious: 1.10p
pokerock: 1.10p
strudel: 1.075p
dsfat: 1.07p
Ap90: 1.05p
Ibug: 0.99p
pennydealer: 0.98p
JayKay1: 0.80p
Picardy: 0.59p
seadoc: 0.48p

No problem Ocelot - although we are normally on different sides of the forecasts here I believe you try and engage in a reasonable argument -and look up the facts

I''d assume they are coring the well but it 's brave man who starts coring "just above the reservoir" - you could easiy be out by 50-100ft in which case that's a lot of time and expense gone missing.

On the other hand I think there are still far too many wells drilled without coring - it was notable that in the Falklands second drilling campaign ALL the wells HAD to be cored - elogs are fine but they are still interpretative - nothing like seeing the real rocks - and you can go back to them in 10 20, 30 years when techniques and ideas change

Wondered when they'd arrive..... everyone back at home now the UNI has closed in Mumbai and all fired up to post......

Mammmmam
Cperkin
dubed
goliath
TSSZ

All notable by their absence previously

And you'rd really hope Troll hunter was cleverer than to have an alter-ego called Troll Finder wouldn't you............

Sorry you are wrong

the moment the drill bit enters the reservoir (assuming hydrocarbons are there) then the gas gets into the drilling mud and is circulated (as usual ) to surface - this may take 20 minutes. At that point the mud loggers will see a rise in gas dissolved in the mud and then any gas will be separated out and put through the flare - if the gas is at pressure they may well see a change in the rate of mud returns first - a kick - and start to weight up immediately. If you look at any well log it has a track for instantaneous gas readings.

Without specialist coring gear any core recovered has only a little movable gas left in it when it reaches the surface as any movable gas escapes as the core is pulled to the surface.

"Why have you remain invested in UK onshore for 25 years, Mirasol?"

it's never been a big piece of the portfolio - probably 5% of my stock is in oil companies because, long haul, people like BP & Shell are pretty safe and often pay decent dividends. The onshore is romance and the (very rare) chance to make a really great return. Even offshore isn't certain tho - Rockhopper for example (:(((( )

I was lucky enough to get out of Infrastrata & Northern ahead and I did OK out of Egdon at one point

It's a fascinating sector but it's a bad place to make a guaranteed return

It's been a sad decline I'm afraid - from a potentially game changing explorer to another small UK oiler who have had to take a punt overseas to keep going. It's not the first by a long way and I doubt it's the last - however good Saltfleetby is for ANGS (and I have some concerns) it'll never make them into a decent sized company and they too will be buying tickets for strange locations in a year I'll bet.

I just about washed my face with Egdon and have some residual holdings there that may crawl into the blue in the next year or so - upside there is really offshore. UJO are another possible but the reservoir may be their downfall and they only have 16% of the discovery.

At the end of the day the real problems for the onshore sector are two fold - lack of scale in the finds - all too small to generate big value or to attract a medium sized outfit in and the fact that the Govt provides no support whatsoever with things like planning, the EA, XR etc etc

I've been invested in the UK onshore for 25+ years and getting out at break-even over the whole period is the best I can imagine right now.

even the rampers have given up here - hardly a single post over the weekend from the usual suspects......

"RNST posted Main Rig on site and Constructed: 22nd Sept - 24th Sept (8-10 days)
Main Rig Drilling reaches TD: 10th November to 19th November (49-56 days)
This assumes the the main rig arrives as soon as the conductor is finished and that drilling goes according to plan."

they should only encounter gas or hydrocarbons in flareable amounts near the bottom of the hole so no sooner than Nov 1st IMHO. Of course they'll test it as it's hooked up and probably at least once a week while drilling so be ready for amass over-excitement every time

I think the workovers , which have been a constant at HH, may well be due to wax - I'm sure it was mentioned somewhere over the lat 4 years. You'd expect more in winter I guess as the surface and near surface tubing gets colder. If it is for wax there'll be relatively little kill fluid involved.

A quick look at Brockham shows that water cut reached about 10% after 5 years and then eventually reached over 50% after 15. it's true fractures can be an issue but if they hadn't seen any water in HH1 for 2 years I doubt there's much of a Portland fracture system there - now HH-2z is clearly different

Absolutely - but Brockham has been on production for over 18 years - HH has been pumped for about 2 years

if you get lots of water you really want to re-inject - ANGS latest CPR on Saltfleetby had trucking and disposal of water costed at $ 20 a barrel!!

If we reckon they're clearing $30-35 a barrel after OPEX that's income (gross) of $ 165,000 - $ 190,00 a month or $ 6000 - $ 6500 a day.

Maybe Alba get a cut or maybe some of it is used to pay off the EWT costs they didn't meet.

I can't see that covering all the office and other costs at UKOG - it's certainly a big help but they really need to be averaging over 300 bopd I think to break even.

Well if they still had to pump it out its clearly affected the amount of oil they 're getting - which suggests they're limited to around 200-250 bbl of fluid a day on average.

See my post just before you got in Pboo - finger trouble on the train..............

AFAIK it's very unlikely in sandstone reservoir to see a jump in water from less than 1% to 9% in a month - apparently such things happen in limestones or fractured reservoirs (like the Kimm) but very unlikely in the Portland - unless they are mixing in HH2z production volumes-. Again this seems unlikely as the overall fluid production is still much the same as earlier months. So some sort of intervention fluid seems most likely as you pointed out

"Average of just under one truck per day (if they run seven days/week)."

Skwizz - they don't run Sat afternoons, Sunday or Bank Holidays - hence the "TWO OR THREE tankers today" ramping every Monday last year.....................................

water cut is 9% not 19% of course........................... apologies

"ibug , where are the figures?"

https://data-ogauthority.opendata.arcgis.com/search?tags=Production
https://ogauthority.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=984eeea3b1664049b12c02a28478bdaa

Thanks for the numbers IBUG - sad we have to trawl the web to find the numbers when the company could provide them so easily.

I suspect Pboo has a point - total fluids are still around 210 bpd but that rise in water cut to 19% is a surprise and could well be returned kill fluids. The Specific Gravity numbers for the oil at 0.846 in April and May indicates an API of 36 degrees - which means this is all Portland production (the kimm has higher a API number).

We're not seeing any increase yet in total fluids produced so the work-over either hasn't been completed or it has had no effect.