Member Info for Mirasol

"In present circumstances, 10% pa would appear to be conservative. Page 56 of the CPR provides a range of alternative discount rates."

Companies often spend a lot of time arguing the toss on this one - you can be super scientific and actually try and see what your cost of capital is but in bigger outfits people start to play games - those backing a project that pays back big and soon want a really high NPV rate to make them look better than one that is mid life loaded or (worst) produces a lot of money in 10 years.

Of course when you actually arrive 5, 6, 10 years down the road NPV means nothing - it's actual cash flow at that point that counts

I think most O&G companies seem to use NPV10 these days

Another 2 - 2.5 Bn shares needed to finance Turkey...............

"There are risks in the CPR, of course, Mirasol, that's why they use a discount rate of 10% pa to arrive at the net present value at 01/01/20."

Economics 1.02 - the Discount Rate for NPV has nothing to do with the risk - it's to do with the "cost" of money - you discount future income supposedly at the cost of finance to get a number NPVx which allows you to compare different investments.. Different companies may use different rates- years back oil companies would use 15% or even 20%. Generally it's a rate decided by the BoD - an investor may use their own rate to suit their own circumstances.

CPR risk is the probability number P90, P50, P10 - which should be generated using a Monte Carlo program. So a P90 of £ 10 million says, using the inputs determined from the data and some experience , there is a 90% chance that they will make £ 10mm and there is a 10% chance they won't.

Similar with P50 and P10 - the bigger numbers are less likely - which is common sense of course

The risk is that they don't produce the volumes they plan to Ocelot. That's one of the risks in the CPR

Even if they do the project is very small by oil field standards - the CPR is net 15-43 Bcf over 15 years The UKCS produces around 2 bcf A DAY - so yes - still a small oiler.

ANGS should money but it's not a lot. The CPR has net cash flow of £21- £64 million net post tax spread out over 15 years - max cash flow (P10 reserves) net post tax is £ 7 mm a year in year 4 of production from the field - last year they had corporate Admin expenses of nearly £ 4 million - so there's not a lot of headroom TBH

"banks are desperate to lend against quality book. I think there will be mixture once SP is a lot higher ."

Banks often don't want to know about small oilers - the risks are well known, they don't understand them compared to say property and TBH the amount someone like Angus needs is too small. I was told that Barclays had a specialist UK oil group but they closed it 20 years ago as "people only wanted to borrow £ 50 million "- the fees were too low - only a couple of million - low and the amount loaned was "insignificant" compared to other deals they could do.

10p - you've spent 8 months telling us you're a long term holder - but now we find "its all about profit" - a trader in other words

Tho honestly I don't think you own any shares at all -

No system publishes accurate Buy/Sell information. This site rates it as a sell (red) if your TRADE Price is lower than the mid price in the published range - if your TRADE price is above the mid point of the quoted range it's rated as a BUY (Blue)

It's really useless - why they persist with it is beyond everyone................ and before you ask there is no way you can actually tell the difference - you'd need access to the order books of every trader all the time and that isn't possible for anyone - not even the Stock Exchange

Agreed - that and the constant fear of another raise.................. this is a share for short-term traders now I'm afraid. I can't see anything transformational onshore UK for a long time here - Turkey may be the get out of jail free card but it's risky

"all 3 options for the future use of HH-2z remain open at the present time."

That means that 8 months after drilling the well they still don't know what they're going to do with it I guess - a long way from the large flow rates predicted I'm afraid

Thanks - do they ever stop to think what hypocrites they are? there was an objector over at Broadford Bridge/Loxley who runs a business flying g people on special holidays all over the world.................

Tony - you need to post a link - we have no idea what you're talking about............

I'd guess its the XR idiots out and about but there nothing on DoD yet and the Fool isn't posting anything either

Anyone remember the sweep? Tymers was in at 3000 bopd from HH1 & 2z.................. hell - I was in at 800..........

Poster HH1 HH2z Total

Tymers 3000
Scallywag3 620 820 1440
Sting69 560 650 1210
Ibug 400 500 900
Mullins 410 420 850
BLSHFTW 825
Mirasol 400 400 800
Ohmetoe 780
Tetrolite 360 410 770
Profit00 320 380 700
Skwizz 600
Captain Stanley 250 320 570
Penguins 450
Backwoodsman 400
Mickybee 1

"in my opinion there are that many shares held at different levels that each upward movement will see a fair degree of sell-off as punters try to reclaim lost value. "

Correct Camperdown - that's why I think I'll never get my money back ( I need just over 2p...) - there are 11 billion shares and an awful lot of them were bought below 2p - what we see is a sudden burst of irrational enthusiasm, or ramping, or rumours, or something different and the price goes up 10% - at which point 10p et al rush in, dump their shares and go down the pub claiming they're Warren Buffet. As the price subsides again they buy and rinse and repeat

It's a sad reflection on this share that we're dependent on news from a local council meeting rather than the drill bit to get the shares up for 3-5 days. I'd expect the next pump to start about 10 days before the council meeting and the rampers exiting if it gets up 10-15%

English is starting to slip already 10p..... as a major international businessman & investor I'm surprised you can't afford classes.........

Wait until 16:00 - then the tidal wave of "new" rampers arrives for the long weekend - all showing 10,000 previous posts, all on here (apparently) since 1066 but they've only posted on UKOG in the last 30 days and their post count doesn't go up however much they post.

Usual mixture of those claiming to be LTH, those who think they own the Board, those with the same tenuous grasp of English as young 10P and the simple straight abusive - it gets wearisome

very true - but they were never part of the plan nor have they been shared with the UKOG shareholders AFAIK

At best the well has to be "disappointing"

Thanks for that info Ocelot

I think it's fair to say that the HH2z well has not worked as planned - we were all hoping for 800-1000 bopd but if one of the options is turning it into a water injection well it says there is absolutely no chance of that. They clearly need a new geological model to consider a side track (and more money) and the risks also go up.

I can see why Turkey starts to look interesting..................

10p speaks!!

"Hey Rich. I'm going no where fella. "

Now isn't that the truth............................. stuck in his garret in Mumbai

"From the Planning Statement: 2.1.13 Previous exploration activity, with flowrates of 1599.6 bbls/day (254 m3/day) per day, has provided Angus Energy confidence that the Balcombe 2z well has the potential to be developed further into an appraisal well."

As anyone who visits the ANGS chat that is a RATE extrapolated from a very short time period - in fact they had high water cut, and they never shipped any oil off site. Most people think that ANGS are only keeping the application going for news flow and that , like the famous test (NOT) at Brockham last year , it will be cancelled at the last moment.

The continued silence from UKOG about the Kimm at HH tells you all you need to know

ladies & gentlemen - we're in sight of a major occasion and I think we need someone to volunteer to be in charge of organising the festivities!

On October 23rd it will be the 5th Anniversary of the only purchase of UKOG stock by a Director!!!!!!!

I think we should have a whip round and buy Mr. Kiran Morzaria a small gift to show our deep appreciation of his bravery & fortitude in sticking with us through ... thin and thin