Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I agree Mr Tibbles, and anything dreamt up this hastily involving UKG is likely to be of dubious sense.
However, in perspective, the liabilities are not open ended, and they are nominally asset backed. This isn’t exactly RBC, and I don’t expect UKG would be keen for this all to go horribly wrong for HSBC given that London is getting to prove what a great environment the UK is for tech firms.
Having said that, they managed to kill energy investment by the windfall tax, so I suppose none of us can say anything with any confidence about this matter.
Yesterday’s missile strikes were a timely reminder of the fact that:
1. Despite western media propaganda, Russia is not running out of missiles.
2. Western supplied air defence systems are increasingly attrited and ineffective.
3. Ukraine had no hope of ‘winning’.
4. Until there is a negotiated settlement based on realistic facts in the ground, FXPO will become increasingly worthless as it loses long term supply contracts.
FWIW I bought back in at 226p. I’m not trying to guess the low, but now seems a decent entry point.
Fundamentally SQZ needs to diversify out of the UK which is basically not a safe jurisdiction for oil and gas companies. Indeed, it could get even worse under a Labour government whose ‘green’ credentials may lead it to increase WFT further.
I’d like, over time, to see SQZ cease all NS exploration and development and seek a listing on TSX. It should be clear to SQZ, as it seemingly is to Shell, that the UK is too far gone up its own green rhetoric to ever make NS an attractive investment environment.
So I’ve reluctantly bought for a trade more than anything. At some point the market will re-evaluate SQZ and its ability to utilise tax losses. But I don’t feel it has a long term future, not unless current management can see the UK investment environment for what it is.
Fwiw I increased my holding earlier today because the valuation and risk / reward are good.
Like many on here, I found the placing to be irritating as a retail investor. But having bought more below the placing price I’m less irritated now.
Someone mentioned that prices often drop below the placing price before re-bounding, and I’ve seen that with HZM.
In any case, IMO DEC remains a sound business case, and that’s without considering the yield which looks reasonably sustainable. I’ll continue to hold.
Prospects for Ukraine look very bleak as its western backers are privately realising that Russia will prevail in this war. This leaves FXPO is a parlous position given the geographic location of its assets.
IMO this is not an investable company, but the market has not yet woken up to the forthcoming Russian victory. For me FXPO is worthless.
I know many are still drunk on western propaganda, but the reality is that Ukraine is already a zombie propped up by vast western aid transfers. Think about it - a population of ca. 40 million early last year, less 12 million refugees/displaced, less 5 million now living in so called ‘occupied’ territories, less say 0.5 million dead or wounded.
Ukraine is therefore now about 23 million, facing a state with a population and military potential about 10 times that of Ukraine.
The truth is inescapable no matter how much nonsense is spoken by western politicos who desperate to prolong Ukraine’s destruction.
Doubling down on UK assets does not seem smart and the market is responding accordingly. London is a hostile regime as regards oil and gas. SQZ had the opportunity to diversify their asset base to somewhere more stable but blew it. I’m out.
It was alarming to see that the entire UK political class and media yesterday blamed Russia for a strike in Poland. Nobody apparently thought that they ought to wait for facts, or wondered why Russia might consider an obscure field in Eastern Poland a target worthy of potentially starting WW3.
Such is the degree of groupthink and Russia hatred in the UK that it was almost with glee that the media contemplated NATO’s response, seemingly oblivious to the risks of escalating a possible war with a state capable of destroying the densely populated and tiny UK.
So it was left to the US to be the adult in the room. A worrying state of affairs, and a reminder that FXPO remains an incredibly high risk investment whilst the west props up the Ukrainian military.
Ukraine would have negotiated peace long ago were it not for the West keeping it going economically and militarily.
So the crucial determinant is the attitude of Kiev’s patrons in Washington and London. Do they want Ukraine to continue fighting or not? Can they square their rhetoric of ‘Russian defeat’ with the reality of Ukrainian territorial concessions? Can they sell negotiations to their public who have been conditioned to equate diplomacy with the dreaded ‘appeasement’?
It is a mess. The reckless absolutism of western rhetoric militates strongly in favour of continued war in Europe.
The problem with that is that this is a war Moscow can’t afford to ‘lose’. And, lest anyone has forgotten in the propaganda fest, Moscow can destroy Ukraine if it needs to.
So yes, I prefer negotiations over perpetual war. Call me an appeaser if you like, but I don’t think fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian is morally or intellectually superior. It’s callous.
Look, a serious point here about G20. The West has talked itself into a corner - Russia must be defeated, Putin must be shunned, Russia must withdraw completely, no territorial concessions.
That’s a position which leaves no room for negotiations. It’s an all or nothing strategy predicated on an assumption that Ukraine can drive Russia out.
Russia and Ukraine were talking about exactly that in Istanbul in March and April before allegedly the Uk convinced Ukraine to break off talks.
The negotiation ball is not in Russia’s court. If the West wants perpetual war (and previous history says it probably does) then it’s gone the right way about it. But if they want peace then there will have to be territorial concessions. That’s the reality.
For FXPO, perpetual war is probably the end of the road.
Well it says something when those calling for negotiations are derided as foreign trolls and propagandists.
If you think that constant war fought largely in Ukraine against a nuclear super-power is the right prescription for Ukraine and FXPO then knock yourself out.
I’m afraid that it still hasn’t dawned on many people that Ukraine will not prevail in this conflict. Western media sound you an awful lot of nonsense about Kiev’s so called victories, but that’s entirely to justify the continued transfers of your own money in the form of military and economic aid.
The brutal truth is that the longer the west continues to prop up Ukraine, the more it will be destroyed and the more lives will be lost.
Russia’s military potential is magnitudes greater than Ukraine’s. That’s just a fact. As Russia mobilises and deploys over the next few months we’ll start to see Ukraine retreating once more.
People can continue consuming the hopium and lies served up by media if they wish. But it defies facts, logic and even common sense.
Those who think that continuing a war to ‘victory’ against Russia are dangerously mad. The West should prevail upon Kiev to negotiate now. The UK sadly is encouraging them to continue dying in a hopeless cause. Fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.
@CleverThoughts - not often I agree with you but I think you’re mostly right. Who benefits? The US.
But it’s not such a jolly deal for Europe. Doubling their energy costs by substituting cheap with expensive will make them poorer, their businesses less competitive. Increasing defence spending and purchasing expensive US arms again makes them more poor. It’s a bad deal for Europe. Subservience to Uncle Sam is rarely a route to peace and prosperity let alone independence.
As for China, I’m not sure what you’re getting at. It’s largely removed from this conflict.
For FXPO of course they’d better hope that negotiations happen real soon. Maybe they should lobby Washington.
The cessation of operations is another dose of reality for FXPO holders. The problem is that the company can’t be successful whilst Ukraine is at war, and no amount of Russia hating hopecasting can erase this inconvenient truth.
As I said repeatedly, the only way out of this war is negotiations with Russia. Perpetual war is going to destroy FXPO and lead to the deaths of un-told more people and the destruction of more of Ukraine.
The Anglo-Saxon world is of course united in fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian. But even their appetite for war stops short of a wider war, and as the grim reality of Ukraine’s total dependence on them for money and supplies dawns during the long winter, I suspect the US will pull the plug on Zelensky.
And frankly, if you an FXPO holder, you’d better hope for negotiations fast. Because FXPO will soon be in default on deliveries and lose its customers. And honestly that’s a best case scenario should war continue.
As always with geo-politics, it’s not about right and wrong, it’s about reality. FXPO is on the fault line, unable to escape reality.
I keep reading comments from people drunk on western lies about impending Ukrainian victory.
Of course, with or without western support, Ukraine can not expel Russia. Its attack on the Kerch bridge will reap escalation, and the longer this war continues and the more it escalates, the more Ukraine will be destroyed.
That is an inevitability, and I believe one that Washington is well aware of. But of course Ukraine is a worthy sacrifice in the cause of weakening Russia.
The biggest threat to FXPO is of course the absence of negotiations and the continuation of war. Shareholders who see peace coming through a collapse of the Russian government and its replacement with a pro west regime are backing a virtual 3 legged horse in a race with thorough-breds. That’s a non starter. The real horses are not so appealing for FXPO.
I don’t see any prospect of peace any time soon.
Russia has got a lot of work to do to control the rest of the Donetsk oblast it doesn’t currently control. The retreat at Liman has only strengthened the hawks in Russia who believe it has been fighting with one hand behind its back.
For Russia the mainstream feeling seems to be increasingly that the West is basically determined to destroy it, weaken it, split it up. There’s plenty of evidence for this in repeated statements of certain leaders in the Anglosphere world.
Russia is currently preparing for a major offensive. I think there’s little doubt about that. It probably won’t be for a few weeks yet.
My thoughts are however that Relations with the West are fundamentally ruptured, probably for the long term. In this scenario, I believe Russia will in time also seek to capture Odessa and cut Ukraine off completely from the Black Sea.
This would leave FXPO in a very difficult position. The markets are of course currently gloating in alleged Ukrainian victories. That means there’s still plenty of downside potential for the FxPO price as the grim reality of Russia’s many times greater military potential hits home this winter.
Carnivora - I get your points and you make them in a fair manner which is a credit to you.
I’m a former investor in FXPO not a bot, troll or keyboard warrior. My problem with the company is that it operates in a country which is at war, is losing territory, and is entirely propped up by a bunch of states with Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya on their recent CV. Moreover, Ukraine is fighting a heavily armed state well prepared to fight NATO. The West has left long term carnage and instability wherever it intervenes (and it has never dealt with a well armed state actor, focusing instead on robed warriors in pick up trucks), and it’s easy to ignore that in the virtually dissent free western world we live in. So I hope you’ll excuse my realism about Ukraine’s chances.
So I can’t view FXPO is some purist vacuum of resources, financials, previous reading record etc.
Now we all make risk assessments and ultimately they’ll be different. And I know we all have different views. But if my posts can act as something of an alternative view to the narrative of glorious Ukrainian victory supported by our heroic efforts, then I think that may serve a tiny useful purpose for others in considering FXPO investment.
FWIW it’s on my watchlist and I’ll go back but only when I can see a realistic prospect of a peace accord. Currently I see none.
OracleofOldham clearly thinks war is a joke, or rather that Russia is an incompetent joke.
It’s easy to mock when you’re fighting Russia using Ukrainians as your stooges. It all seems a long way away, and media can print a lot of nonsense about Ukraine’s brave fighters and Russian incompetence.
But it’s a morally bankrupt and vacuous stance which will unravel before your eyes.
Russia will likely to consolidate its territorial gains and Ukraine’s manpower advantage will be negated by Russian partial mobilisation. Ukraine is entirely reliant now on western arms, and has already run through its own male population in mobilisations.
The West faces a choice between escalatory war in which Russia has escalation dominance, or acknowledging Ukraine’s inevitable eventual defeat.
Joking isn’t going to help because this is tragic.
Little point in discussion with those who are beyond reason.
Nobody should want nuclear war. Really. Think about it.
But if our leaders say (and they have) that Russia must be defeated, they are setting off on a path of destruction. Because to defeat Russia will entail the destruction of much of the planet.
Do Truss or Johnson really think about what they’re saying? The UK isn’t threatened, isn’t at war, but says Russia must be defeated.
How is it expecting this to happen?
What does it mean?
What are they talking about?
Russia must be defeated. They all say it. How do they think this will happen? They think Ukraine, a state with multiple times smaller military potential, will defeat Russia?
Think about the rhetoric. It’s dangerously insane.
Dismissing anyone who isn’t a fan of waging a proxy war on Russia through Ukraine as a ‘troll’ or ‘bot’ is puerile.
The West has no treaty obligations to defend Ukraine, no vital interests there, and neither can it afford to be spending $bns on supplying it with weapons. Neither, one presumes, does it want to run the risk of escalation which would destroy civilisation.
So the West’s bellicose position is not a trivial matter. Russia is fighting an existential war for its own survival. Western citizens have not yet realised that this escalation dominance is a problem for them.
Because when Truss et al say ‘Russia must be defeated’ she may not realise that what she is implying is that the UK must risk a nuclear war which would certainly see the destruction of the UK.
Let me ask, is that something citizens would sign up for in the defence of what’s left of Ukraine? Do we want to see our loved ones dead in a radioactive waste land because we’ve talked ourselves into a rhetorical confrontation in defence of a non NATO country most people never even heard of 6 months ago?
I don’t think so. The West ultimately won’t escalate against Russia because it knows Russia is capable of destroying it and will do so if pushed. The West also knows that Russia is not directly threatening the West in this war.
That’s what escalation dominance is. Forget FXPO, bigger things are at stake. The West needs to back off before it gets dragged into Armageddon by its own actions. I hope it will. We’ll fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. We should never have gone down this road of using Ukrainians as a proxy army. It’s immoral and disgusting.