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@Alex - really you’ve got to free your mind to read between the lines and think for yourself. Russia hasn’t been targeting civilians. If it had then there would be hundreds of thousands dead by now and cities like Kiev would have been abandoned. Israel has killed far more in a shorter time space but the ever so enlightened ‘west’ doesn’t seem bothered about that one.

Russia’s strategy remains the military defeat of Ukraine and its western backers. They focus on military and military industrial facilities. Unfortunately some civilians die because they may be in the wrong place at the wrong time, but unlike Ukraine, they don’t deliberately target civilian facilities during the day time (think Belgorod).

FXPO had a nice Santa rally on the back of grain export figures. But militarily Ukraine continues to weaken and until the Zelensky regime is replaced there will be no peace because he and his nationalist backers have set their sights on the wholly unachievable goal of defeating Russia.

I wish it wasn’t so, but it seems time that FXPO is a hostage to political games in Kiev and western capitals. Peace will see the shares soar IMO, but certain parties have talked themselves into an awkward position of expelling Russia from all of Ukraine. That’s a fantasy.

@Alex

Wars always end in a settlement, and in the absence of a clear victor it will be a negotiated one.

You’re right that Zelensky can’t negotiate. He’s already legislated to make that impossible. But Zelensky will be replaced when the US, or Ukraine’s military, deem it necessary. That’s just reality. It will happen because it has to.

You also mention that you hope the US gives Ukraine what it wants. Well, it really needs fighting age men. It won’t get them.

The latest wonder weapon, F16s, are going to get shot down and be ineffective if the US ever allows them to be used. I add that caveat because the preceding wonder weapon, western tanks, have burned. And I note that the US has told Kiev not to use its Abrams M1s on the front line.

Because videos of burning Abrams would damage export business.

We can all fondly hope that David is miraculously going to slay Goliath. But hoping doesn’t butter any parsnips and it’s a really terrible way of conducting foreign policy.

Who knew that, after 18 months of triumphing Ukraine’s inevitable victory over Russia, the West should be hit in the face by reality?

Ukraine can’t defeat Russia and realistic security negotiations (not capitulation) will secure peace.

Well, I knew this and a few others, but seemingly we were all ‘Russian trolls’. Reality is creating more ‘Russian trolls’ and eventually Washington will force the Zelensky regime to negotiate.

And only then, IMO, will FXPO stop testing new lows.

Agree. Out of interest, where are you visiting the UK from?

Your point about nuclear power is well made. I often think about how radical students were in the 1960s (a bit before my time), 70s and 80s. They were often occupied with anti war protests, anti capitalism, sit ins on university campuses etc.

Compare and contrast with now and they’re usually occupied by concerns about safe spaces, diversity and wokery whilst largely supporting the establishment, being stuffed with debt, supporting whatever war the government is sponsoring.

I don’t see any fire or radicalism for change in today’s UK students. They seem docile and weak by comparison. Not sure what this means for the future but the contrast is interesting. I guess I’m less convinced, to pick up Rookie’s point, that they are capable of either critical thinking, effecting change or being effective leaders. The same may however be said of today’s leaders.

@stupmy. An excellent post dripping in realism.

My only amendment is to point out that the UK is not the world, and that we are probably world outliers in delusional green and woke brainwashing of an entire generation.

But that said, you are so right. I don’t believe UK O&G is investable because politically I can’t see a future for it.

What FXPO needs is peace, and that will be preceded by negotiations.

Astonishingly, the biggest proponents of FXPO on this board are still talking of war, and incredibly enough, of Ukrainian victory.

The negotiations in April 2022, famously scuppered after Johnson’s visit to Kiev, would have secured a better deal for Ukraine than anything available to them now. Because the war is lost for Kiev. Ukraine is running out of men to fight.

It was always deluded to believe that Ukraine could defeat Russia in a war. Sadly that delusion has cost the best part of 500,000 Ukrainian lives since April 2022.

So whilst you lament the share price, consider that only peace can unlock the potential recovery. And remember the intellectual contortions performed by those on here who simultaneously talk continued war and a glorious future for FXPO. I think the truth is slowly percolating through to even the most brainwashed.

I wonder whether Zelensky will voluntarily head off to his new life in Miami, or whether his own military will call a halt and depose him. Either way …..

Talking of ‘war crimes’ it’s instructive that the ICC and its western backers have never once spotted anything worth investigating in numerous Israeli actions in Gaza, in the West’s wars in Iraq, Afghanistan etc.

Not once. Not so much as a possibility.

That should tell you all you need to know about war crimes, the ICC and western search engines.

And a big bravo to Alex for bravely blocking anyone with views which don’t correspond to his own. That’s a healthy ‘democracy’ chaps.

I’m afraid that the UK is a lamb that roars like a lion. I note that Sunak has humiliatingly corrected Shapps talk of UK troops training Ukrainians in Ukraine.

Which brings me to another point. Where is Ukraine going to get Ukrainians from? I know it raids bars and clubs to drag young men out to enlist them, and I know they’ve already mobilised up to age 60.

What next? Compulsory enlistment of women? Men up to 70? Boys from 14?

Because however much WMSM pretends that Ukraine can still ‘win’, you can’t escape the grim reality. Its losses are 400k dead based on independent geo-located analysis of graveyards. It has 50k amputees, probably another 500k injured, many of who will never be fit to return. 10 million have left, Russia being the largest single recipient of refugees.

Yes I know the West wants the war to continue. As Senator Graham said, it’s a great investment for the US to kill Russians by proxy for only $110bn so far.

But that’s sick. And so is this facade that Ukraine can win. And so is pretending that investment in FXPO is a great idea. Because the longer this continues, the greater the chance that FXPO becomes worthless, it’s assets become part of Russian territory.

Troajan - you can make as many points as you want about alleged ‘war crimes’ and how awful Putin is.

But none of that addresses my central point which is that Ukraine will lose this war. This is absolutely inevitable and always has been.

And as you know, victors in wars are never held to account for ‘war crimes’. The US and UK committed numerous alleged war crimes in Iraq, Afghanistan etc but nobody has ever been held to account.

So it will be with Russia which isn’t going to go away or surrender or elect a nice pro western president. Europe will have to live with Russia, as will what’s left of Ukraine.

Euphoric western propaganda, most of which is dis-information designed to stop anyone asking awkward questions or face being denounced as an ‘orc sympathiser’, is leading to this absurd dis-connect between what people think is happening (or about to happen) and reality.

Take a punt on Russian surrender if you wish. That’s what FXPO investment essentially is in my view. But it’s an incredibly unlikely long shot IMO.

@onsolidground is right - FXPO is a play on hostilities ending.

Ironically of course it is the West which scuppered negotiations back in April 2022, and the West which is prolonging the conflict by supplying Ukraine with weapons and money to pay salaries, pensions etc.

Without the West’s intervention, this conflict would have ended long ago and FXPO might be operating in a more normal environment.

It is in fact London and a Washington which are driving Ukraine to continue fighting a conflict which they can’t win. It is the endless war which western MICs have been yearning for since Afghanistan ended in debacle.

The next wonder weapon will have no bearing on the eventual outcome of this conflict. Ukraine is already lost but will continue to fight until it literally runs out of men or the military replace Zelensky.

Regarding the thread subject, ATACMS are the latest wonder weapon after javelins, Himars, Challengers, Patriots and Storm Shadows.

And Russia will adapt air defence systems to mitigate.

Meanwhile the destruction and killing continue. Anyone cheering this needs a long think. And some of those are in Westminster.

The much hyped spring offensive has been a total failure. Ukraine’s western trained, advised and armed offensive has done almost nothing except kill another 50k Ukrainians.

Meanwhile peace becomes ever more difficult and FXPOs future ever more uncertain. Yet many of you, brainwashed by ludicrous propaganda, continue to cheer on Ukraine in this impossible war they can’t win. The destruction of Ukraine just another casualty of western delusions, like Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria etc.

Geo-politically it looks to me that it’s the G7 states which really are most troubled, isolated, mature economies with poor demographics and a declining influence globally.

By contrast China sits squarely with the global majority, the dynamic young populations of Asian and Africa.Economic growth, if there is any, will most likely be led by or benefit China.

I discount UK media as largely the delusions of elite group think. I wish it wasn’t so, but I’m afraid that the G7 states, that cabal of imperial or former imperial powers, are unable to come to terms with the end of western hegemony.

China is lots of things, but I hold AAL because ultimately I believe that it will continue to grow at a faster rate than the sclerotic economies of the G7 which are themselves fast becoming ‘security states’.

January is right - it’s a great proxy war for the US.

But strangely, in focusing on Russia’s alleged losses, there is no mention of the real losers in all this. Because fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian is morally obscene, and let’s make no mistake here, it is Ukraine which is losing a generation of men at a rate likely many times higher than Russia.

Boris Johnson scuppered peace talks in April 2022. How many people have died since? America is making a point, but at the prime expense of Ukraine.

As the old saying goes, being an enemy of the US can be dangerous, but being a friend can be fatal.

As Mnawaz says below, Glencore has gone ex div today for around 23p / share. Which means that the litigation story is basically totally discounted in the price - ie not moving it at all.

Well, If you want to play whataboutism, I could raise you Baghdad, Pyongyang, Saigon, Belgrade, Fallujah, Nagasaki, Hiroshima ……..

When it comes to bombing of civilians there’s only one true champion.

But don’t let that obscure the fact that Ukraine is deliberately targeting civilians with its indiscriminate drone attacks.

Continued war of course is a disaster for FXPO.

Maybe I should remind Evanescent that it is Ukraine which intentionally attacks civilian targets (notably high rise flats) with its drones. Anything for a quick bit of publicity to take attention away from its failed counter-offensive and massive body count.

I’m sure that the more discerning among you will have realised already that Russia is not intentionally targeting civilian facilities - except where they are being used for military purposes.

Kiev would be a pile of rubble already if that was Russia’s intention.

How wonderful to see people like Alex finally letting realism creep into their consciousness.

But that realism has not yet permeated the consciousness of UK media and government who continue to ‘as long as it takes’ mantra.

This cruel and inhumane approach, which began with Johnson scuppering peace negotiations in April last year, will condemn many more thousands to their deaths. It is beyond my comprehension as to how the UK has collectively decided that sponsoring Ukraine to continue fighting a war it literally has no hope of winning, is in some way righteous, humane and virtuous.

And as has been obvious for 18 months, FXPO will continue to suffer decline and degradation until negotiations are successful. And for negotiations to be successful requires both parties to be at the table, recognising objective realities. London currently supports continued futile war, and that’s more bad news for FXPO.

Agree with @Karlo90.

A very high chance of losing everything invested in FXPO.

Of course, I’m already blocked by many of the starry eyed zealots who most need to read this, but we can only try.

UK media having a field day today because Ukraine has successfully damaged a Russian landing ship. All totally irrelevant to the ground campaign, but great publicity for those desperate to prolong war to the last Ukrainian so that even more people may die. A sad and sorry state of affairs.

Zelensky calling for a peace summit based on Russian capitulation and talks not involving Russia!

The truth is that until Z is replaced Ukraine’s de-militarisation will continue. Whilst the West can replace weapons it can’t replace humans, and on that score Ukraine’s losses have likely been multiples worse than Russia’s with a population base only 30% of Russia’s.

So look, it doesn’t take a genius to work out that Ukraine can’t win. That so many of you appear to have fallen for the UK propaganda is rather dismal.

Zelensky’s fate is linked to the prosecution of a successful war. So we know he’s not interested in peace. He is a dictator who has banned opposition parties and suspended elections.

The choice facing the West is either military escalation possibly leading to a world ending nuclear war, or finding a way to back out of its rhetoric without losing too much face.

Engineering a coup to replace Zelensky with someone who might seriously negotiate peace (and that involves reflecting reality on the ground) is increasingly likely.

Reality ultimately trumps pious self righteous rhetoric from states who have prosecuted plenty of illegal wars themselves. The West backed a loser (again).

Seems that Russia’s response to the Kerch Bridge attack is to devastate Ukraine’s port infrastructure. Having exited the grain deal, Russia is now free to do this.

I don’t know whether Yuzhny has been targeted yet, but it seems to me that cheerleaders for the Kerch Bridge terrorist incident have exhibited their usual short sightedness.

I feel it will be difficult for FXPO not to be negatively impacted , directly or indirectly, by attacks on Black Sea ports. The market will wake up to this when they get over the euphoria of decent inflation figures.