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Very difficult this.

The problem with the UK’s ‘security guarantees’ is that the whole point of this war, from a Russian perspective, was to prevent NATO troops in Ukraine.

In that sense therefore, being a realist, I regard the European initiative as being at best a non starter, and at worse a deliberate provocation to Trump perhaps as well as Russia.

I’m accept that there may be a genuine moral case for security guarantees, but I think they are best provided by non NATO states. That’s more acceptable to Russia.

Ultimately I have a very low opinion of the UK’s position. They have been aggressive and confrontational throughout. They remain so. I think they are all about theatrics and trying to prolong the war. They are now a malign influence diverging from their US patron. That’s not good policy.

We have two dichotomies here. On the one hand there are the ‘morally virtuous’ who believe that policy should be informed by ‘right and wrong’ and international law (but only when they feel like it). On the other hand we have realists who believe in dealing with the world as it is rather than as it should be.

Most of you are moralists. From your perspective Putin is the personification of evil and Trump is is dumb lackey, whilst most Europeans are virtuous and righteous in supporting Ukraine and their heroic leader Zelensky.

Unfortunately your moral absolutism leads to some rather bad policy prescriptions. In this case, you advocate forever war since the ‘just peace’ you seek requires de facto Russian surrender and humiliation.

Realists of course start from where we actually are. On this basis Russia is slowly winning, Ukraine is running out of men, the state is being destroyed, and Zelensky is an impediment to peace.

I believe that realism usually prevails in the state system and therefore it’s a better guide to policy making. The UK is a bit part player barking loudly on the sidelines and trying to sabotage negotiations in favour of more war. To put it mildly, it appears to be on the wrong side of history, and certainly on the wrong side of reality.

@johnsilk

Yes, of course you are right to a point. But economic entanglements can clearly be in-wound in extremis. We have had a war in Europe for 3 years and all sides have suffered massive economic damage.

Ultimately, given sufficient provocation, Russia chose to sacrifice economic integration for what it saw as a matter of vital national security. I don’t think we’ll see Russia so westward facing for generations.

At his press conference this morning, Peskov stated that he had nothing to add to the earlier Foreign Ministry statements that European troops in Ukraine were unacceptable.

What I find amusing is watching the UK government slowly, like a little parasitic worm, change its position on Russia. Now apparently we believe talking to Putin is a good thing! Now apparently we couldn’t rule out Russia’s return to the G7! Yesterday we were too weak to veto a US text of a neutral UN Security Council resolution calling for immediate peace in Ukraine without blaming Russia.

Oh what fun it is to watch those erstwhile Trump and Russia haters, Starmer and Lammy, contorting their precious absolute moral certainties in order to try to stay relevant in the real world.

Perhaps soon, without any shame, they’ll admit that fighting Russia by proxy to the last Ukrainian was actually a disgusting, morally repugnant policy, and that Ukraine never had a hope in hell of expelling Russia.

What Trump meant is that the West could easily have avoided war. In fact it literally followed a path to war and then refused for 3 years to even talk to Russia. The West has spent that time vilifying and demonising Russia and pretending that it will magically collapse and disappear.

The great peace loving democracies of the West basically made it a quasi treasonable offence to even suggest that realistic diplomacy and talking was the way to end this terrible war.

The detachment of European elites from reality remains palpable, as is their irrelevance.

Maybe some of you are finally going to realise that neither Ukraine nor most of its ‘European partners’ actually want peace. They are still living in a delusional world of maximalist Ukrainian ‘victory’.

Maybe you’ll also realise that Ukraine is not a rules based open and transparent democracy.

But I doubt it.

If you are an FXPO shareholder you’d better hope that the Europeans and Zelensky don’t get their way. Because there was is literally forever war until, hopefully, Russia withdraws some time in the next 10 years.

None of that will happen. But the parties of war are busy trying to sabotage peace talks.

A more plausible hope is that the CIA or Ukrainian military replace Zelensky in a coup with someone who actually wants to end the war before more lives and territory are lost.

I don’t think Zelensky can negotiate realistically. In that sense I agree the US-Russia talks are fairly pointless.

But equally I think the Americans and Russians know that. The days of the Trident wearing actor/comedian touring the world with his begging bowl and delusional speeches are probably limited.

Having digested Trump’s pronouncements on Ukraine I’m even more bearish on FXPO.

Trump seems to believe that the way to end the war is through threatening Russia with more sanctions. It’s almost mind-boggling to believe that continuing the West’s failed policy of 3 years will produce different results.

Whilst Trump merrily accused Putin of destroying Russia he appeared oblivious to the condition of Ukraine. Western media dutifully and gleefully lapped it all up, as though Russia is losing this war to an ascendant and largely unscathed Ukraine.

I take no joy in any of this. This war is a tragedy. But if Trump’s real negotiating strategy is bluster and threats, then FXPO’s price, like Kiev’s remaining military, will sooner or later collapse. The alternative to real concessions to Russia is now a global nuclear war. The West’s idiotic policies of sanctions and selected aid will not save Ukraine now.

FXPO has rallied recently on peace hopes. I believe however that peace remains a long way off. The West still remains unable to contemplate a realistic settlement and the Europeans are desperate to embed perpetual war before Trump takes office.

Even with Trump in office, the warmongers in London and Paris are currently talking of picking up the slack and escalating further. As for Trump, is unknown what approach his administration will take.

The risk therefore remains high that Ukraine and perhaps the world will be turned into a steaming pile of radioactive ash. Indeed recent escalations suggest this risk is rising. Under such circumstances, investing in FXPO is literally a gamble with a 100% downside risk.

FXPO remains un-investable IMO due to the huge uncertainty about this conflict. It remains official policy in both London and Washington to prolong this war for ‘as long as it takes’.

Is that going to change under Trump? I have my doubts given the Deep State /MIC influence.

However, if Trump does change policy, then London is left exposed as an Uber fan of Biden’s attempt to sabotage peace. With Lammy having made personal attacks on Trump, this festering island led by geopolitical idiots will look peculiarly exposed. I expect the UK’s much hyped ‘storm shadows’ would be quietly withdrawn from Ukraine’s use when Trump takes office. Hopefully Lammy will follow.

I had hoped that the legions of the brain-washed would have seen sense by now. I had hoped that they would have realised that their hopes for Ukraine’s victory were a preposterous fantasy lie fed to them by irresponsible western leaders who were themselves either grossly mendacious or unimaginably dumb.

But I was wrong. Biden is prepared to snatch Ukraine’s and perhaps the world’s destruction from the jaws of peace. Backed by his warmongering poodles in the UK, war must continue at all cost.

I hope some of you who ‘support’ Ukraine would see recent share price action as indicating that its salvation comes from negotiations not forever war. But then I suppose most of you self appointed lovers of ‘democracy’ and freedom and virtue in the fight against ‘evil’ and ‘autocracy’ have already blocked views such as mine. What an ironic twist to your contorted logic.

BP’s share price is mired, at least in part, by its main London listing.

The UK government is hostile to O&G, and London investors are often still obsessed with ethical investing.

The disparity in BP and Shell’s valuation metrics compared to Exxon and Chevron are at least partly due to the London listing. North America is fundamentally more O&G and indeed mining friendly.

I don’t think BP has helped itself with its dallying with renewables and ‘beyond petroleum’. For me there are too many negatives which will suppress the share price irrespective of commodity prices. I see more value elsewhere.

Much excitement from the war parties about Ukraine receiving permission to use western missiles to strike military targets in Russia. This is of course just the latest ‘game changer’.

But in a war where Russia holds escalation dominance this really means more destruction and death for Ukrainians.

As always, the cheers and optimism will soon turn to tears and wailing about the need for another wonder weapon.

But in a game of escalation dominance

It amuses me how those who have appropriated the moral high ground and blind self righteousness to themselves post the most abusive nonsense about ‘Russian scum’ with virtually no reasoning.

Meanwhile, as FXPO continues to plumb new depths, they seem blissfully unaware that the company’s future is threatened not by and peace in Ukraine is being scuppered not by Russia but by their own governments prolonging a war to the last Ukrainian.

The disconnect from reality of those who demonise Russians (you might argue it would be hate speech if it were directed at any other nationality) is stark. Because no matter what you think of Russians, that’s irrelevant to Ukraine’s prospects for ‘winning’ this war.

Anyone versed in realism sees that the expulsion of Russia from Ukraine is not possible through a military path. It is inconceivable at this point that, without direct NATO ground intervention (which won’t ever happen), Ukraine can win.

So perhaps the Russia haters can explain to us how this all ends. Does it continue to the last Ukrainian with FXPO worthless? Or is there going to be a western wonder weapon? Or a coup in Moscow?

What is the exit strategy?

It’s an awkward fact for the NATO cheerleaders that the more NATO props up the failing Ukrainian state, the more damage is done to FXPO.

I don’t expect those who so loudly proclaim their righteous commitment to democracy will even read this because they choose to block voices who don’t agree with them …….. go figure that one.

But here we are. FXPO is close to new lows, Ukrainians are still dying, the Ukr military is still slowly losing, and western taxpayers are becoming less supportive of this endless war in Europe.

Meanwhile western political elites still spout the rhetoric of how Russia must be defeated.

That’s a grim and dangerous situation to be in. Because, as has always been evident and I’ve repeated ad nauseam, without a direct NATO intervention Russia will defeat Ukraine. And a direct NATO intervention won’t happen (as NATO repeats endlessly) because Washington understandably isn’t keen on risking nuclear destruction and the end of the world.

That almost all politicians in the UK are unable to grasp what is at stake here, and how their own ‘support’ for Ukraine is actually destroying it, is truly alarming.

It’s time for realists to end this awful carnage and that means a negotiated settlement which recognises the situation as it is, not how ‘we’ would like it to be in our rhetorical delusions.

Alex1978 is an intelligent guy. But in his post below he falls into the same trap as so many.

Ukraine is apparently developing its own ballistic missile. That might be true. But what advantages would this bring for Ukraine?

Well, if Russia had no means of retaliating or other escalatory options then it could change Russia’s behaviour. But if Ukraine was able to strike deeper into Russia, particularly Moscow as Alex suggests, there would almost certainly be an escalatory Russian response which might well focus on Kiev.

Last week western media were getting all excited about Ukraine’s invasion of some pine forest inside Kursk oblast. Yes it’s embarrassing and annoying for Russia. Now much of Ukraine is left without reliable electricity whilst its frontline in western Donbas is crumbling.

Who suffers most? Which society is going to collapse first?

It’s all about potential and escalation dominance. Western media have no understanding of this. They simply uncritically parrot Zelensky’s latest bout of bravado or begging.

But look at reality and have a think. A strike on Moscow, if they managed it, would elicit a response. Alex et al seem to think it would be Russian capitulation. Most rational realists know that it would lead to more destruction for a Ukrainian state which is near the end of what it can take.

Russia is fighting arguably the cleanest war in history in terms of intensity and civilian casualties. You only need compare the western sponsored Israel aggression in Gaza to see an ugly comparison.

Sadly we live in an alternate reality when it comes to western media coverage of Ukraine. History pre 2022 has been erased, Russia has been cast as the embodiment of all evil whilst Ukraine itself is re-cast as a thriving democracy with no culirtuption, definitely no extreme nationalists, and led by a man of saintly qualities.

All complete nonsense and fiction. Reality will prevail because we live in the real world. You can escape reality but not for ever.

You can talk of ceasefires all you want, and this war will end in a ceasefire and negotiation. But until Zelensky and the West drop their maximalist demands of Russian capitulation, all talk is meaningless nonsense.

Because negotiations will be based on battlefield realities. And the actual reality (as opposed to the propaganda many people have swallowed) is that Ukraine is losing and its society simply can’t sustain war for much longer. Russia has multiples greater military and population potential and will continue to inflict more damage on Ukraine than Ukraine can in Russia.

It was always so. There is no escape from this reality. Which is why the West’s support for fighting Russia by proxy is morally indefensible as well as stupid. I don’t know whether western leaders are too dumb to realise this, or whether they are in fact monstrously manipulative in sacrificing Ukraine for their warlust.

Either way, FXPO is not worth buying until we see signs of sanity from the West.

One reason for the drag here is the geo-political risk associated with Mexico and the hostility to mining of the Morena party.

https://www.mining.com/web/proposal-to-ban-open-pit-mining-advances-in-mexican-congress/

Some very sensible posts on here from LoungeLizard and Fog among others.

It’s interesting that the Americans claim to have know nothing about Ukraine’s Kursk interjection. They would say that anyway, but it it’s true it indicates that Zelensky’s time may be coming to an end. The Americans don’t want a non compliant leader doing dangerous things with Russia …… they expect obedience for their money.

We haven’t yet seen the Russian escalation. Escalation dominance doesn’t mean that you have to escalate quickly or often. But I’m sure it will happen and then the West will cry into their collective hands about how awful and barbarian the Russians are (they have no such problem when it comes to Israeli actions in Gaza!).

It still baffles me that supposed FXPO investors cheer lead more war and more military aid whilst viewing proper negotiations with horror. Some sort of cognition dis-connect.