Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
It’s always convenient to blame Putin for everything, but also fundamentally wrong.
Western countries do have agency, and they are voluntarily prolonging war by supplying weapons, whilst imposing economic sanctions on Russia which are at least as harmful to their own economies.
Moreover, most of the world (which isn’t western) has not joined their sanctions crusade. This means that relative to non western competitors, the west is in a relatively dis-advantageous position. Nowhere is this more apparent than with energy prices. China, India et al are enjoying cheap Russian energy whilst western industry is crippled with high prices.
Finally, it’s not Putin it’s Russia. Putin is not a dictator who has managed, despite no support, to impose his will on a Russian population who really want to be ruled by some pro western liberal.
It’s time that western politicians started to be honest. Blaming Putin or Russia for everything is not being honest.
Not really sure how you manage to positively link RIO share price to a war in Europe and arms supplies.
Whilst this isn’t the place for geopolitics, since you mention it, Ukraine’s ability to coherently wage prolonged war is linked to competent fighting age men as well as weapons. Even with an unlimited supply of the latter I’m not sure how you think the former can be sustained indefinitely against a state with a much greater war fighting potential.
Exactly right Splice, couldn’t agree more. We’re entering a fundamental re-alignment, probably splitting of the old global order. Difficult to predict the future, but I suspect the West is accelerating its own decline relative to Asia.
Yes Poly is not a Russian company, but neither are any of the long list of virtue signalling western corporates voluntarily closing down or suspending their Russia operations.
Then there’s the threat that Russia will nationalise the assets in Russia.
Two can play at economic warfare. The West has torn up its own rules. Russia’s split with the West is now basically irreversible. It won’t sit back and do nothing, particularly with respect to UK interests.
The problem I have with this is that Russia is going to prevail in this war sooner or later but Western media and brain dead political elite continue with this ludicrous trope that Ukraine is going to prevail.
The UK is particularly delusional, and I’m afraid that in a fit of ever more desperate pique, they will continue to destroy the so called ‘rules based order’ that they created. In that sense I could see Poly being suspended or de-listed.
Because what is happening here is a disastrous humiliation of the so called ‘West’, and having talked so much complete nonsense from the start about how Putin must be seen to lose, it’s going to be difficult for Johnson et al to find an off ramp when the charade of Ukrainian victory becomes too much even for the partisans of Sky, BBC etc to sustain.
Johnson must be seen to be doing something. There’s not a lot else left he can do, except virtue signalling by such as ensuring that companies operating in Russia, paying Russian citizens, are de-listed.
There is some reason for optimism with an eventual ceasefire agreement. But it won’t be because of a ‘Ukrainian tactical victory’ as the western media like to describe. On the contrary, Ukraine will be the party making concessions such as neutrality, recognition of Crimea as Russian, and some movement on the separatist republics.
However, any agreement is good for FXPO’s share price. Russian occupation of the assets is not on the agenda and never has been. So I discount fear of expropriation. IMO at this price it’s now a highly speculative buy. DYOR.
I was a LTH here but sold out at some loss at about 800p because I could see that the West was determined to launch an economic war on Russia.
Now I’m considering buying back in, but not yet. The issue for me is not what the West will do, and I discount (indeed ignore) the absurd Russophobia and Offenbachi fake news of western media.
This issue for me is what Russia will do next in the way of counter sanctions. I think the barely hidden Russophobia in the recent Poly RNSs is a mistake.
I note statements by both Mishustin and Peskov today which are explicit. Russia will take counter measures against western interests.
I’m waiting to see what those measures are before investing. The problem with economic war and tearing up your own rule book is that two can play at that game.
DYOR and GLA.
I don’t think the US is going to permit Kiev to negotiate a ceasefire. That want to prolong conflict as long as possible.
The risk remains that Russia nationalised the assets. Economic war, as the West proclaims it, is not a one way street.
I can only see a very significant fall tomorrow. Following the West’s mutual back slapping over Russia’s selective expulsion from SWIFT and the freezing of its US held reserves, they would be unusually delusional to expect no Russian response.
That response has been hinted by Medvedev this weekend - the nationalisation of western owned assets. Gold mines would fit that bill nicely.
I have been a long term holder of Poly but no longer. Western governments are about to make all of our investments worthless through their much hyped economic war on Russia (and it is an economic war). Russia won’t sit idly by supplying gas etc whilst the West tries to selectively kill it without harming its own economies. You’re welcome playing with fire.
Also, I hold little hope of negotiations being successful. The West probably believes its own propaganda about how wonderfully Ukraine is doing. They will double down on the policy of fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian.
Pedrobull,
Putin is not a nazi. That’s historically illiterate.
Secondly, you accuse others of ‘selfish’ views whilst saying he must be stopped at all costs - including presumably a nuclear war which would kill millions of innocent people. Isn’t that view extremely selfish?
Either way, presume you agree that FXPO is worthless now.
The West has now virtually guaranteed through its weaponisation of SWIFT, that investments in FXPO are now worthless. Russia will retaliate and FXPO’s assets will likely sit in a Russian controlled area.
Thank your own governments for your losses.
Truth is the first casualty of war, and the western media have managed a very slick media campaign to date.
But that doesn’t change hard facts on the ground. Ukraine is going to lose this conflict, sooner or later. Most of the world outside US and Europe are studiously neutral if not actively backing Russia.
There isn’t going to be a ‘palace coup’.
Russia will retaliate and seizure of western assets looks very possible - as Medvedev stated yesterday.
Evraz is no longer investable IMO.
Certainly not selling here. Western markets, in keeping with their elite’s xenophobia, are in Russia bashing over-drive.
Still no invasion, no blitzkrieg on Kiev. In fact Russia has merely done what it has been accused of doing for the last 8 years - namely occupying what used to be Ukrainian controlled territory in Donbas.
Against this back-drop, and as the west slowly realises that its ‘sanctions from hell’ amount to shooting itself in the foot, the intrinsic value in JRS will become apparent again.
All IMO. DYOR.
Good luck Astro - you can only do what’s right for you.
Personally I hold and will not sell.
I expect that Russia will formally recognise the independence of the separatist areas later today, and will move its military to the current ‘line of control’.
From there we may see a Russian move into the parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts currently under Ukrainian control. This would first require suppression of Ukrainian air defences and assets, command and control sites , ammunition dumps etc. I think this is likely.
This second stage may be paused to allow for diplomacy. Much will depend on whether Kiev and its western allies want to see a significant destruction of its military infrastructure and the loss of further territory.
The effect of this second stage occurring will shatter European markets (the Russian market already being heavily marked down).
Having a strong cash position seems wise to me.
Dodger - I understand that many so called progressive liberal minded democrats are actually completely intolerant of views that don’t correspond to their echo chamber. So I get where you’re coming from.
But let me assure you that Rbrand and I are different people.
I hope you can comprehend that there are many people who don’t swallow the one sided nonsense served up by UK media in particular. Did you ever stop to wonder why, in its 24/7 coverage in a non existent ‘invasion’, they only ever feature the view from Kiev, London and Washington?
Nobody can accurately predict the future, although US intelligence is very good at inaccurately predicting it.
There is obviously a risk that if the West chooses to impose what would be illegal sanctions under international law (great guardians of the sanctity of international law they are!!), then Russia would retaliate in some way to harm western interests. After all, two can play at breaking international law.
One phone call from Biden to Kiev could avert war. Ukraine is basically a weak puppet state. All the US needs to do is tell it to implement Minsk or the money and aid will be cut off.
But there’s zero chance of that happening. The English speaking world wants war. They want Ukraine to fight Russia, although they’re not daft enough to do it themselves. Thank London if our Poly shares become worthless because Russia nationalises the assets.
It’s a mistake to view Russia through the woefully one sided prism presented by western media. One of their most egregious mistakes is the way they characterise Putin as a one man dictator, an aberration imposing his evil will on an un-willing people.
This is a total nonsense. Putin is a product of the Russian people, and when he goes he will be replaced by someone equally committed to the pursuit of Russian interests.
And this is the kicker. Russia is a great power whose interests tend to clash with those of the West. This has been the case for centuries. It is delusional for example to think that any future Russian leader will give Crimea back to Ukraine and behave as the US wants. Because it’s antithetical to Russian interests as an independent sovereign power to do that. Nobody would do that.
The personality cult thing is really a way for the west to say ‘we’re not anti Russian we’re anti Putin’. That might ease their personal consciences but it’s an exercise is self delusion.
The reality is that states have permanent interests, and while leaders come and go with different styles, they can’t escape those interests.
My contention is that the West, drunk on a brief period of US hegemony and some wars (many of them disastrous) on defenceless nations, is unable to deal with its own relative decline. The current Anglo hysteria is a product of this, a rage against reality.
I have POLY as a buy because fundamentals will win out eventually - whether company specific or geo-political.
DYOR
Yes exactly Astro - although it might be a long and bumpy ride.
My view is that market over-reaction presents great opportunities. Poly is marked down, not on fundamentals, but because its assets are in Russia. But they’re about as far from Ukraine as London is.
Gold meanwhile is now touching 1900USD / oz. This is now a steady and notable gold rally. Fundamentals suggest Poly should be re-rated accordingly.
It isn’t yet because of noise. But it will be eventually. IMO of course.
Hi Astro.
What u turn are you referring to? If it’s something from Sky or BBC then it needs heavily caveating given the totally one sided coverage.
The Moscow exchange was down 3.7% today and I suspect it’s related to the incidents in Donbas.
The Anglo-Saxon world have been talking of imminent invasion for 2 months. Even Ukraine is dis-agreeing with them.But of course the US / UK actually want a war because it would weaken Russia. Ukrainians are mere sacrificial lambs in their geo-political games. That’s why these self styled defenders of ‘democracy’ are happy to send weapons and trainers and warm words of support, but will be nowhere to be seen if conflict starts. Russia doesn’t want conflict, it wants negotiations to improve European security. But it can’t control the crazies in US and Kiev. If anything starts it will be due to Ukrainian aggression or some sort of US sponsored false flag. POLY is a hostage to fortune and will remain volatile. But in the long run it looks very good value at £11. DYOR (and ignore western media!).