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The cessation of operations is another dose of reality for FXPO holders. The problem is that the company can’t be successful whilst Ukraine is at war, and no amount of Russia hating hopecasting can erase this inconvenient truth.

As I said repeatedly, the only way out of this war is negotiations with Russia. Perpetual war is going to destroy FXPO and lead to the deaths of un-told more people and the destruction of more of Ukraine.

The Anglo-Saxon world is of course united in fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian. But even their appetite for war stops short of a wider war, and as the grim reality of Ukraine’s total dependence on them for money and supplies dawns during the long winter, I suspect the US will pull the plug on Zelensky.

And frankly, if you an FXPO holder, you’d better hope for negotiations fast. Because FXPO will soon be in default on deliveries and lose its customers. And honestly that’s a best case scenario should war continue.

As always with geo-politics, it’s not about right and wrong, it’s about reality. FXPO is on the fault line, unable to escape reality.

I keep reading comments from people drunk on western lies about impending Ukrainian victory.

Of course, with or without western support, Ukraine can not expel Russia. Its attack on the Kerch bridge will reap escalation, and the longer this war continues and the more it escalates, the more Ukraine will be destroyed.

That is an inevitability, and I believe one that Washington is well aware of. But of course Ukraine is a worthy sacrifice in the cause of weakening Russia.

The biggest threat to FXPO is of course the absence of negotiations and the continuation of war. Shareholders who see peace coming through a collapse of the Russian government and its replacement with a pro west regime are backing a virtual 3 legged horse in a race with thorough-breds. That’s a non starter. The real horses are not so appealing for FXPO.

I don’t see any prospect of peace any time soon.

Russia has got a lot of work to do to control the rest of the Donetsk oblast it doesn’t currently control. The retreat at Liman has only strengthened the hawks in Russia who believe it has been fighting with one hand behind its back.

For Russia the mainstream feeling seems to be increasingly that the West is basically determined to destroy it, weaken it, split it up. There’s plenty of evidence for this in repeated statements of certain leaders in the Anglosphere world.

Russia is currently preparing for a major offensive. I think there’s little doubt about that. It probably won’t be for a few weeks yet.

My thoughts are however that Relations with the West are fundamentally ruptured, probably for the long term. In this scenario, I believe Russia will in time also seek to capture Odessa and cut Ukraine off completely from the Black Sea.

This would leave FXPO in a very difficult position. The markets are of course currently gloating in alleged Ukrainian victories. That means there’s still plenty of downside potential for the FxPO price as the grim reality of Russia’s many times greater military potential hits home this winter.

Carnivora - I get your points and you make them in a fair manner which is a credit to you.

I’m a former investor in FXPO not a bot, troll or keyboard warrior. My problem with the company is that it operates in a country which is at war, is losing territory, and is entirely propped up by a bunch of states with Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya on their recent CV. Moreover, Ukraine is fighting a heavily armed state well prepared to fight NATO. The West has left long term carnage and instability wherever it intervenes (and it has never dealt with a well armed state actor, focusing instead on robed warriors in pick up trucks), and it’s easy to ignore that in the virtually dissent free western world we live in. So I hope you’ll excuse my realism about Ukraine’s chances.

So I can’t view FXPO is some purist vacuum of resources, financials, previous reading record etc.

Now we all make risk assessments and ultimately they’ll be different. And I know we all have different views. But if my posts can act as something of an alternative view to the narrative of glorious Ukrainian victory supported by our heroic efforts, then I think that may serve a tiny useful purpose for others in considering FXPO investment.

FWIW it’s on my watchlist and I’ll go back but only when I can see a realistic prospect of a peace accord. Currently I see none.

OracleofOldham clearly thinks war is a joke, or rather that Russia is an incompetent joke.

It’s easy to mock when you’re fighting Russia using Ukrainians as your stooges. It all seems a long way away, and media can print a lot of nonsense about Ukraine’s brave fighters and Russian incompetence.

But it’s a morally bankrupt and vacuous stance which will unravel before your eyes.

Russia will likely to consolidate its territorial gains and Ukraine’s manpower advantage will be negated by Russian partial mobilisation. Ukraine is entirely reliant now on western arms, and has already run through its own male population in mobilisations.

The West faces a choice between escalatory war in which Russia has escalation dominance, or acknowledging Ukraine’s inevitable eventual defeat.

Joking isn’t going to help because this is tragic.

Little point in discussion with those who are beyond reason.

Nobody should want nuclear war. Really. Think about it.

But if our leaders say (and they have) that Russia must be defeated, they are setting off on a path of destruction. Because to defeat Russia will entail the destruction of much of the planet.

Do Truss or Johnson really think about what they’re saying? The UK isn’t threatened, isn’t at war, but says Russia must be defeated.

How is it expecting this to happen?

What does it mean?

What are they talking about?

Russia must be defeated. They all say it. How do they think this will happen? They think Ukraine, a state with multiple times smaller military potential, will defeat Russia?

Think about the rhetoric. It’s dangerously insane.

Dismissing anyone who isn’t a fan of waging a proxy war on Russia through Ukraine as a ‘troll’ or ‘bot’ is puerile.

The West has no treaty obligations to defend Ukraine, no vital interests there, and neither can it afford to be spending $bns on supplying it with weapons. Neither, one presumes, does it want to run the risk of escalation which would destroy civilisation.

So the West’s bellicose position is not a trivial matter. Russia is fighting an existential war for its own survival. Western citizens have not yet realised that this escalation dominance is a problem for them.

Because when Truss et al say ‘Russia must be defeated’ she may not realise that what she is implying is that the UK must risk a nuclear war which would certainly see the destruction of the UK.

Let me ask, is that something citizens would sign up for in the defence of what’s left of Ukraine? Do we want to see our loved ones dead in a radioactive waste land because we’ve talked ourselves into a rhetorical confrontation in defence of a non NATO country most people never even heard of 6 months ago?

I don’t think so. The West ultimately won’t escalate against Russia because it knows Russia is capable of destroying it and will do so if pushed. The West also knows that Russia is not directly threatening the West in this war.

That’s what escalation dominance is. Forget FXPO, bigger things are at stake. The West needs to back off before it gets dragged into Armageddon by its own actions. I hope it will. We’ll fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. We should never have gone down this road of using Ukrainians as a proxy army. It’s immoral and disgusting.

There’s nothing to celebrate for Ukraine fan boys or FXPO in today’s news from Russia.

I guess those who have gorged themselves on all the lies about Ukraine’s invincible army are probably beyond help. It will be a very hard bounce for you when you hit reality, although doubtless the western media which has already spun the loss of 20% of Ukraine as a stunning military success will be working hard to spin the next unreality.

And the longer this goes on the worse it gets for FXPO shareholders. Maybe this is evidence that metaphorically speaking, turkeys do sometimes vote for Christmas.

About half of today’s fall occurred after 2PM which is when the market got wind of the likely escalation of the war in Ukraine. In that sense the share deal is indeed a non story.

But I’m afraid that the Ukraine fan boys who feast on WMSM propaganda of impending Russian defeat are deluded and should be ignored.

FXPO will never recover until this war is over. The UK government’s policy of prolonging it until some illusory Ukrainian victory is complicit in destroying shareholder value in FXPO.

Anyone still holding might find a nasty shock awaiting them. DYOR.

Things are about to hot up in Ukraine as Russia is preparing for proper war. FXPO sits in a war zone.

I’ll say no more.

@Opp_Hunting - the cash figure excludes the gold inventory.

Banburyboy - it’s a fair and well made point and you could certainly be right.

My contention is that whilst it technically isn’t nationalisation, it would be an extra-legal state intrusion into a portion of a global market. In that sense, why would any potential O&G explorers bother investing in a UK jurisdiction which whimsically imposes a super tax followed by a price cap?

It would be a move directly counter to Truss’s often stated desire to get O&G exploration moving after years of government disdain if not contempt for the sector.

But the UK is in a fair mess, often of its own making. We can rule nothing in or out.

Interesting conjecture from Banburyboy, and to be fair you can’t rule it out although it’s a little implausible.

For Truss, a free marketeer, to basically seize NS assets and nationalise them, would further damage the UK’s shaky reputation as a stable business jurisdiction. It would also decimate attempts to encourage NS exploration.

That aside, I hold SQZ. But the ride might be bumpy.

Attempts to separate electricity from gas prices should have little impact on the price of gas. Moreover the market price of gas is not within the control of the EU to cap or manipulate. What they can do is cap the price to consumers /businesses and pay the difference. But they can no more control the market price (which remains a function of supply and demand) than they can control the weather or the price of any global commodity.

So for me this is more a reaction to the fall in market price today, noting that in the short term markets are prone to irrationality.

The fundamentals remain the same today as last week. On that basis SQZ remains good value IMO, cash rich, debt free, with upside potential from N Eigg, but DYOR.

I suggest that you read the post of JohnNth which contains a heavy dose of realism to counter the propagandised hope-casting which otherwise litters this thread.

I won’t repeat what John said. But I will add that Ukraine will ultimately fail in this much publicised ‘counter-offensive’. The reason for this is that whatever Ukraine might achieve tactically it is unable to match Russia strategically.

Russia has been remarkably restrained thus far. It has not for example attempted to destroy Ukrainian civilian infrastructure in the way that the West destroyed Iraqi and Serb cities in its own recent invasion /threatened invasion.

This has been interpreted in WMSM as indicating weakness, a lack of munitions frequently cited.

But the truth is that Russia has reserved escalatory options because it wishes to preserve escalation dominance.

Kiev may or may not achieve tactical victories (or what are presented as such) but the inescapable truth is that Russia will inflict defeat on Kiev because it has superior resources and military power and because this is an existential war for Russia.

For the West of course it’s vital that Ukraine continue fighting as long as it can (they don’t care one jot about how many more will die), and it’s important to present some ‘victory’ to the immiserised voters back home.

The ‘Kherson counter offensive’ is an important justification for continued fighting and for the poverty which is being extended to millions in the West.

I didn’t realise that one had to be invested in order to post on a particular board. That seems to be another rule made up by @Papucel, a rule which strangely he didn’t apply to himself when he posted on the RIO board warning everyone of my alleged status as a Kremlin bot.

I’ve made my point for now and will leave you to your own thoughts. But again I note that there are clearly some who seek to shut down debate by making inane and ludicrous slurs.

An example is the claim below that I am ‘intimidating’ others. By what? Encouraging thought? Suggesting that all may not be how it is portrayed by a media and elite who egregiously lied about recent past wars?

That’s an appeal to inquisitive critical analysis. Do your own research.

Oh please, those who think they know Russia’s invasion plans because the BBC told them ……. grow up. Russia had a force of 200k and supposedly intended to occupy Ukraine in 5 days. Even my cat knows that is ludicrous.

Again …… think! Don’t invest in FXPO purely on the basis of what UK media is telling you about Ukraine’s impending glorious victory. There’s a much higher chance of an escalating global war.

@Papucel - it’s wonderful that you have managed to find a few factually accurate statements among 6 months of western propaganda. But then they do report selective facts, and nobody disputes that Russia has suffered losses. It’s a war, and a prolonged one at that.

However, the accurate reporting of selective facts in no way obviates @rbrand’s contention that the West is guilty of mis-information and sometimes lies.

Who could forget the:

Russia is running out of missiles (March)
Putin is dying or even dead (for years)
Russian troops are mutinying
The whole world is against Russia
We will reduce the Rouble to rubble (Biden in March)
Ukraine is heroic and never guilty of anything
Ukraine is winning
Ukraine is just about to launch a devastating counter attack (still waiting)

I could go on. But it’s axiomatic that western media and ‘anonymous sources’ have fed the public a diet of lies or misinformation dressed up as informed sources.

Truth is the first casualty of war. If you want to believe western media as reliable and objective then feel free. I think that’s naive and foolish. Just as Russian and Ukrainian sources are likely to be equally biased.

Do your own research and think about FXPO. But open your eyes and minds to the possibility that what you hear 24/7, which almost entirely and intentionally omits any Russian perspective, is likely to be much less than a full picture.

On this board there are well meaning people totally brainwashed by western media, and there are realists. I hate to break it to you guys, but the Kremlin won’t be targeting this board with its ‘bots’.

As a realist I am of course dismissed as a ‘bot’. Perversely the reason I’m a ‘bot’ is that I don’t swallow the 24/7 western narrative. I don’t take the party line …… the easy option, the position believed by most in the west. This non conformity apparently makes me a brainwashed ‘bot’. Very perverse logic.

Yet what exactly is it that makes you so convinced that your elite, which egregiously lied to you about Iraq, is suddenly telling the truth?

Western sanctions supposed to destroy Russia’s economy appear to be destroying western economies. Recession, mass fuel poverty, inflation, interest rate rises, falling living standards ……. these inconvenient facts are blamed on ‘Putin’s war’ when really they are the result of the West’s reaction to Russia’s actions.

Someone even mentioned that India, China et al are reaping the benefits of cheap Russian energy. Yes they are. And who is really paying the cost ……. Europe as its international competitiveness is ruined.

Russia’s economy is suffering, but not anywhere nearly as bad as European politicians promised back in February when they singularly failed to mention that they would be crashing their own economies.

Meanwhile Ukraine suffers most of all. And while we wait for Putin to be replaced by a pro western leader (zero chance), and Russia to run out of ammunition (it won’t), and Ukraine’s glorious counter offensive (won’t happen), more people die and Europe sinks even further into the mire.

And FXPO weakens, its share price going nowhere, its production falling, its exports disrupted, its credibility damaged.

Realism.

It is pleasing that Papucel’s ludicrous defamatory warning on the Rio Tinto board has been removed. Childish attempts to stifle free speech should not be tolerated, and I’m pleased that someone saw fit to report his post.

My position is crystal clear. Pumping Ukraine with weapons is prolonging a war that Ukraine will not win. The UK and US are pursuing a morally bankrupt policy of using Ukraine as a hapless proxy tool to fight Russia. Ukraine is nothing more than an expendable pawn on the geo-political chess board.

So for FXPO investors, your interests are also being sacrificed because the longer this continues the more disruption there is to FXPO sales.

And let’s be under no illusions here. The US and UK have long histories of sponsoring ‘forever’ wars. The Afghan and Iraq debacles are the two most recent and egregious examples.

Ukraine is a tragedy which was years in the making. The war represents a lamentable failure of great power diplomacy and statecraft. History did not begin in February 2022. This should never have happened, but I’m afraid that US and NATO policy since the Bucharest Declaration of 2008 have one enormous assist in driving Russia to its military operation.

FXPO investors are rightly hoping for peace. We all should. Sadly, the decision makers in Washington, London, Kiev and Moscow seem to prefer war and the continuation of it - for their different reasons.