Member Info for Minecheck

Good evening all,

I’m a relative newcomer to these boards. Ignoring the banter, I’d like to thank those who contribute in a sensible and civilised manner.

Personally I’m expecting some clarification on Araguaia 1 financing this week, but as always there’ll probably be more questions than answers. That’s likely to have a moderate effect on the SP but I’d be surprised if it pushes much above 10p.

HZM have been clear that we can expect a steady stream of news through Q4. This is what I base my views on. I’m invested in HZM for the long term because we have the right resource and management. So I’m not expecting fireworks. Well, more the occasional Roman candle, but I’m not expecting duds either.

DYOR.

My view is that, particularly if you’re say in the UK and constantly bombarded by group-think about how EVs are going to take over the entire world, then it’s easy to worry about future demand for Rh.

But putting aside the fairly obvious nonsense hype, and ignoring the nascent energy crisis which the Uk is driving itself into (even before EVs and electric heat pumps are even widely adopted), I find it useful to look through the lens of less woke states where most of the world’s population actually live.

Here, in China, India, Russia etc, we can see clearly that there is no pretence that everyone will soon be driving a Tesla at 30-50k a pop. We can see that ICE cars are still the immediate future.

But we can also see in states such as Japan that hydrogen, not EVs , is the future path.

In all probability, as infrastructure and energy become even more of an issue, the UK will realise that it has bet on the wrong technology. These problems are one ugly advertisement to the rest of the world about not just so called ‘green energy’ but the pitfalls of massively ramping up demand for electricity whilst betting on intermittent sources for that power.

From a global perspective therefore I steady future demand for autocatalysts. The UK market is insanely woke and that’s why, IMO, SLP is insanely under-valued.

DYOR of course.

I don’t mean to be critical MrT because you are an admirable source of knowledge. But on this I think you’re on a crusade borne of emotion rather than logic.

In the real world, market prices of electricity and gas are rocketing. This is at least in part due to the premature closure of coal and gas fired stations, the failure to invest in nuclear, and an over-reliance on intermittent renewables. In the real world, more real people will face fuel poverty as a result. Nobody likes fuel poverty, and it won’t be long before they’ll lose their enthusiasm for ‘green’ energy.

UK world leading virtue signalling is all very lovely, but the world needs fossil fuels for the next few decades, and without continued exploration then oil, coal and gas prices will continue to rise.

Fossil fuel explorers will continue to raise money from elsewhere, and the UK finance sector will be the poorer for it.

Too much fear-mongering and hyperbolic shouting leads to bad policy. We’re already starting to see the problems with UK energy supply (and no it isn’t Russia’s fault). Gestures do not change reality. Fossil fuels will be needed for decades.

As ever, it depend what you’re looking for. SLP appears to me to have a good management team and a sound business model. On fundamentals it looks cheap and aside from the vagaries of PGM prices, it fits the criteria in my book for a good long term hold.

Of course it’s not a 10 bagger, but it is solid with a decent dividend and a proven management we can trust…….. I value the latter highly.

Great question and not one that I can claim to have an answer to. But macro trends are poor for the West. Their various obsessions with expensive and intermittent ‘green energy’ and massive quantitative easing are likely to cause an economic shock. This is exacerbated by ludicrous valuations of some tech companies.

Societally the social structure is also weak and lacks resilience as collective institutions such as family, church and nation have been deliberately weakened in order to champion individualism and globalism.

This lack of resilience will merely compound the economic shock when it comes.

Long term the $ is being undermined by crypto currencies and by the growing strength of the China-Russia axis. Even ignoring baked in inflation, IMO long term prospects for gold are excellent.

EVs are clearly over hyped and over priced products the elites are trying to foist prematurely on the public. Great for the virtue signalling wealthy, but impractical for the majority.

So those who write off Rh demand for ICEs are very much engaging in the fairy land group think beloved of western elites. Remember the vast majority of the world is not the ‘West’.

My problem with THS is therefore not Rh demand at all. It’s the over active social media of management which invariably promotes the company but in a somewhat hyped and un-realistic manner.

I’m uncomfortable with this, and IMO so is the market at large. The key question for me is whether Management are credible or too lightweight? THS looks too cheap to be true. We all know the saying about that. I hold but with rising concern.

Europe only has a gas shortage because of its own energy policies. Russia is a reliable partner should Europe want to take more gas.

For various political reasons it is reluctant, but I’d ignore the Russophobic nonsense spouted in UK media.

I agree the case for uranium is strong, but politics and group think in many western states are still stronger. At some point the absurdity of many energy strategies will force a reckoning. But it may be a while off yet.

My understanding from Boark’s link is that there will be a 6c + 4c (the interim divi) distribution payable 21/9.

I could be wrong but that’s how it reads to me.

Good point Dibs, and I agree with you. The question is whether the market understands this about silver in general and POLY in particular. I suspect that it’s not widely or fully recognised. FRES is a good example of how even prime silver plays are not currently highly regarded.

I think it’s always been the case that markets tend to over-react on both the up and down side. But recently, and this is admittedly just a theory, the UK market has bought into woke environmentalism.

In ‘green’ theology, miners are generally frowned upon because extraction tends to be dirty. Obviously some metals are acceptable as necessary for the ‘green revolution’, but gold isn’t one of them.

So Poly simply isn’t trendy and doesn’t attract so called ‘ethical investors’ or form part of ‘green’ pension funds.

In the real world value will eventually be realised, but the UK of all markets appears currently to be going down a particular path whereby funds are attracted to green plays. I view this as another manifestation of the long standing market proclivity for irrational over-reaction.

I bought in yesterday at 5.3p after much debate. My principal reservation has always been that the tin grade is low.

Against this I acknowledge that AISC are reasonably low too, plus there is a decent prospect of commercial lithium and tantalum.

Another significant indicator for me is that the management team appear competent and credible. I value this intangible factor perhaps more than I should, but equally we’ve all seen companies with great resource prospects very badly managed and this is destructive of shareholder value.

So overall for me this is a long term hold with considerable upside unless management start causing me concerns. GLA.

I have a holding in Tharisa. But I’m increasingly sceptical for a number of reasons.

1. The management team do not seem to have the confidence of the market and some big institutional investors. This is always going to weigh on the SP. Is there a governance or credibility issue? Big questions we’re not well placed to answer.

2. THS needs to diversify its asset base and eventually production, both geographically and in terms of metals, in order to reduce risk. I know this is an aim. But until it happens ……

3. I despair at the THS obsession with social media. They’re good at that, but they’re not engaging successfully with the right targets. Social media has a role to play, but majoring on it can perpetuate an appearance of being lightweight. Are management are light on credibility?

I’ll continue to hold but I need to see more from them before I’ll consider THS a better investment than SLP.

CAPD is a solid relatively low risk exposure to the African mining sector. As others have said, rig utilisation is a key metric, but on fundamentals it seems a sound company.

Hold for a 12 month view and don’t worry about daily movements, particularly when there’s a general sell off.