Member Info for Minecheck

Good luck Astro - you can only do what’s right for you.

Personally I hold and will not sell.

I expect that Russia will formally recognise the independence of the separatist areas later today, and will move its military to the current ‘line of control’.

From there we may see a Russian move into the parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts currently under Ukrainian control. This would first require suppression of Ukrainian air defences and assets, command and control sites , ammunition dumps etc. I think this is likely.

This second stage may be paused to allow for diplomacy. Much will depend on whether Kiev and its western allies want to see a significant destruction of its military infrastructure and the loss of further territory.

The effect of this second stage occurring will shatter European markets (the Russian market already being heavily marked down).

Having a strong cash position seems wise to me.

Dodger - I understand that many so called progressive liberal minded democrats are actually completely intolerant of views that don’t correspond to their echo chamber. So I get where you’re coming from.

But let me assure you that Rbrand and I are different people.

I hope you can comprehend that there are many people who don’t swallow the one sided nonsense served up by UK media in particular. Did you ever stop to wonder why, in its 24/7 coverage in a non existent ‘invasion’, they only ever feature the view from Kiev, London and Washington?

Nobody can accurately predict the future, although US intelligence is very good at inaccurately predicting it.

There is obviously a risk that if the West chooses to impose what would be illegal sanctions under international law (great guardians of the sanctity of international law they are!!), then Russia would retaliate in some way to harm western interests. After all, two can play at breaking international law.

One phone call from Biden to Kiev could avert war. Ukraine is basically a weak puppet state. All the US needs to do is tell it to implement Minsk or the money and aid will be cut off.

But there’s zero chance of that happening. The English speaking world wants war. They want Ukraine to fight Russia, although they’re not daft enough to do it themselves. Thank London if our Poly shares become worthless because Russia nationalises the assets.

It’s a mistake to view Russia through the woefully one sided prism presented by western media. One of their most egregious mistakes is the way they characterise Putin as a one man dictator, an aberration imposing his evil will on an un-willing people.

This is a total nonsense. Putin is a product of the Russian people, and when he goes he will be replaced by someone equally committed to the pursuit of Russian interests.

And this is the kicker. Russia is a great power whose interests tend to clash with those of the West. This has been the case for centuries. It is delusional for example to think that any future Russian leader will give Crimea back to Ukraine and behave as the US wants. Because it’s antithetical to Russian interests as an independent sovereign power to do that. Nobody would do that.

The personality cult thing is really a way for the west to say ‘we’re not anti Russian we’re anti Putin’. That might ease their personal consciences but it’s an exercise is self delusion.

The reality is that states have permanent interests, and while leaders come and go with different styles, they can’t escape those interests.

My contention is that the West, drunk on a brief period of US hegemony and some wars (many of them disastrous) on defenceless nations, is unable to deal with its own relative decline. The current Anglo hysteria is a product of this, a rage against reality.

I have POLY as a buy because fundamentals will win out eventually - whether company specific or geo-political.

DYOR

Yes exactly Astro - although it might be a long and bumpy ride.

My view is that market over-reaction presents great opportunities. Poly is marked down, not on fundamentals, but because its assets are in Russia. But they’re about as far from Ukraine as London is.

Gold meanwhile is now touching 1900USD / oz. This is now a steady and notable gold rally. Fundamentals suggest Poly should be re-rated accordingly.

It isn’t yet because of noise. But it will be eventually. IMO of course.

Hi Astro.

What u turn are you referring to? If it’s something from Sky or BBC then it needs heavily caveating given the totally one sided coverage.

The Moscow exchange was down 3.7% today and I suspect it’s related to the incidents in Donbas.

The Anglo-Saxon world have been talking of imminent invasion for 2 months. Even Ukraine is dis-agreeing with them.But of course the US / UK actually want a war because it would weaken Russia. Ukrainians are mere sacrificial lambs in their geo-political games. That’s why these self styled defenders of ‘democracy’ are happy to send weapons and trainers and warm words of support, but will be nowhere to be seen if conflict starts. Russia doesn’t want conflict, it wants negotiations to improve European security. But it can’t control the crazies in US and Kiev. If anything starts it will be due to Ukrainian aggression or some sort of US sponsored false flag. POLY is a hostage to fortune and will remain volatile. But in the long run it looks very good value at £11. DYOR (and ignore western media!).

Lots of good posts.

A decent bounce today following the Franco-Russian diplomacy. But I imagine the parties of war in the US and UK will be deeply un-happy about this turn of events. I’m sure that they are as we speak doing their best to ensure that France is isolated. As this diplomacy revolves around the Minsk Agreements, which Kiev has no intention of implementing ever, I feel confident in saying that the talk of war will return soon enough and French efforts (however sane and laudable) will be scuppered.

So for POLY we can expect more volatility although the inherent value of a low PE and high and sustainable yield remains. DYOR and GLA.

Great post Olderandwiser.

I’m a value investor with a particular specialism in geo-politics, certainly not a TA - that’s way outside my area of understanding.

I feel there are opportunities to capitalise on the West’s dismal understanding of geo-political realities. The hysteria over an ‘imminent’ invasion has dissipated somewhat but markets have marked POLY down because it’s mainly a Russian play and Russia is a truly evil country which needs to be taught a lesson by the benevolent West.

I see no fundamentals for this mark down. POLY’s trading update didn’t indicate any concerns to me. Its assets are so far from Ukraine that they may as well be in a different continent, and the only threat Russia faces is western sanctions which most likely will have no or little impact on sales and distribution. Could London force a de-listing of POLY? I see that as highly unlikely given the degree of reputational harm to the UK market that it would do.

So for me POLY’s mark down is driven mostly by Russophobia and hysteria. I know that London is in desperate times and listing for war in Europe, but even these madmen don’t want a war on Russia.

This old weather trope is actually a nonsense. Mechanised units are trained to operate in all weathers, and equipment is designed to operate in mud as well as snow. Of course mud is more difficult than frozen ground, but it would be a mistake to swallow this nonsense that Russia needs frozen ground.

It really is best to ignore most western media with their hysterics and fake news.

Rich - what American troops? The ones that the US and UK are deploying in Poland, the Baltics, and anywhere but Ukraine?

Russia has escalation dominance. The West knows this. They are diligently supplying Ukraine with more weapons with which to ensure that, in the event of a conflict, more people will die but the outcome will be the same.

Whilst it’s difficult to under-estimate the degree of lunacy which the Dr Strangelove types in London and Washington are capable of achieving, even they will likely stop short of ejecting Russian banks from Swift.

Swift seems to have been quietly dropped from the daily hysteria rant, and the reason is most likely that Europe would be unable to pay for the Russian gas which keeps its economy alive.

My personal view remains that the US and UK would be happy to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian (a very principled position!) and their hysteria is partly because some of them would quite like for this to happen and partly for domestic political reasons.

EU states clearly don’t share their enthusiasm for war in Europe and are probably working hard to put their English speaking friends back in their straight jackets.

Either way, I think that the markets have probably priced in most of the reasonably likely scenarios.

Great post rbrand.

The Q4 update was in my view fairly positive. Net debt is under control, AISC is rising (as with virtually every miner across the world) but Poly’s margin is very comfortable whatever the reasonable vagaries of the gold price.

The SP has been knocked down by all the hysteria led by the US and UK. This hysteria serves their malign agenda of stirring up tensions and justifying the re-militarisation of Europe - a project they’re already rushing to implement.

But it gives us a chance to pick up Poly at a ridiculously low forward PE ratio and high dividend yield. And when the invasion hysteria disappears (as it inevitably will over the next few weeks) the SP should rise. At least there are ways for PIs to prosper from western aggression and hype.

Rbrabd is one of the few knowledgeable people commenting here. He is right - the Minsk agreements are the negotiated solution to the separatist regions. Everything has been agreed but Kiev refuses to implement parts it finds difficult.

Meanwhile, thanks to the hysteria of the US/UK axis, FXPO’s price continues its decline. Even Kiev is tiring of the constant war drums because they are ruining Ukraine’s economy even more. Who would invest there?

FXPO is suffering, but not because of Russia’s words or actions.

All rather amusing to see NATO described as a ‘defensive alliance’. Is Afghanistan part of the North Atlantic area? Was the bombing for 52 days of a defenceless Serbia part of it’s ‘defensive’ actions?

I’d also be fascinated to know how the UK and US sending arms to Ukraine, not even in NATO, part of diplomacy.

What are the ethics of sending arms to a country which you claim will be invaded by an overwhelming force? You know it won’t change the outcome but more people will die. Perhaps someone can explain the logic and how that’s all part of the well known ‘defensive’ nature of US / UK policy?

POLY is % down by more than FXPO. That also makes no sense on any objective basis. After all, if the west’s claims are true, FXPO’s assets are about to be seized by Russia.

Markets are of course sometimes highly irrational. But the sell off of Russian assets looks absurd. After all, the West bangs on about what it calls the ‘world order’ whilst lusting after sanctions which would effectively destroy that order by forcing Russia to permanently join the Asian axis led by China and creating a bi-polar world.

I’m not saying the West is led by intellectual pygmies, but it does seem to have been losing the great game played between world powers, stuck in some post imperial denial of the reality of its own decline.

FXPO down another 5% on opening.

Seems that wrapping oneself up in a narrative of Ukraine as a cute aspiring democracy being bullied by evil Russia isn’t helping FXPO escape geopolitical reality. Kiev’s erstwhile western saviours are not coming to the party despite their warm words.

Who’d have thought?

Bravo Shakhtar!

But it is you who has the agenda of hate, launching your vitriolic attacks on Putin and Russia. I never mentioned him!

If pointing out that FXPO is being buffeted by a geography it can’t escape is ‘defamatory’ or ‘inciting hatred’ or ‘false information’ then you’d have a point.

The share price is at 12 month lows. Why? FXPO can’t escape geopolitical reality, and your pathetic attempts to silence people with whom you disagree are risible.

I agree that FXPO is under-valued on fundamentals, and that there’s a geo-political discount. The problem is that geo- politics tends to be semi-permanent.

It’s extremely difficult to see how geo-political tensions will resolve quickly given that neither RU nor the US are likely to accommodate meaningful diplomacy. They try again tomorrow in Geneva.

Whilst Kiev continues its vain attempts to cuddle up to NATO there is no resolution. FXPO is a hapless pawn of geography and Ukrainian politics.

Well, I think that the Western sponsored armed coup in 2014, followed by the West’s arms sales, gifts and training of the Ukrainian military, has led Ukraine to the brink.

And let’s be clear, the West will happily fight Russia to the last Ukrainian but no further.

I can’t be confident that FXPO’s mines will be in Ukrainian hands for much longer, and I’m even less confident that FXPO’s distribution routes will be open for civilian purposes for much longer.

The West has made FXPO un-investable. Bravo!!

Financial markets are often irrational, and this creates opportunity for contrarian investors.

Inflation is rising and clearly not the ‘transient’ problem western central banks assured us it was. Gold is steady, falling again today. Western markets are near record highs whilst rising he media glibly talks about a Russian invasion which would bring inter state war to Europe.

None of this makes any sense. But that’s the point. Markets are highly irrational at the moment.

Incidentally, my advice would be to digest Russian media as well as western media. In fact, ignore UK media completely if you want a remotely nuanced understanding of the security dilemma in Europe. Far from it being ‘all Russia’s fault’, the rising insecurity in Europe has been building for 20 years as NATO broke promises, expanded eastwards, and engaged in wars outside Europe. We are now reaching the tipping point, the point when the security dilemma comes to the boil.