Member Info for Minecheck

On a board about FXPO it takes one almighty act of delusion to pretend that the war is not the single most important factor impacting the FXPO share price.

The precipitous decline in the SP reflects this rather strongly.

Papucel - By all means report me for having a view which is different to yours. If that’s your version of a liberal tolerant society then I think it speaks volumes.

If reflecting reality as I see it is now ‘criminal propaganda’ then I fear for the future of my country. You are free to believe what you wish, and if that’s to parrot western media then knock yourself out. All I ask is that others should be free to respectfully disagree.

JohnNth - I agree with you regarding Russian war aims.

The original aim was the restoration of the 2 separatist republics of Donbas within their full administrative borders. This hasn’t changed.

The problem with Russia declaring a ceasefire is that it can’t be a unilateral one. Ukraine and its western backers still ostensibly have maximalist demands. Peace will take a willingness to negotiate on both sides. There is little sign of that from either side given the hot headed rhetoric and volume of weapons being pumped into Ukraine.

Let’s try to put a few things straight.

1. I’m not a professional investor and never claimed to be. I’m a realist not a ‘supporter’ of Russia or Ukraine. This isn’t football. It’s geo-politics. FXPO is a price taker when it comes to geo-politics. Investment decisions therefore need to be based on reality not hope.

2. Ukraine does not have the support of the whole world as Papucel bizarrely claimed. Indeed, it has the support of a minority of the world, mostly Europe, North America and a few Pacific states.

3. Most of the world is de facto neutral in this conflict. Part of the reason the West’s sanctions have been disastrously self harming is that only the West is prepared to shoot itself in the foot. Russia’s alleged ‘isolation’ is simply a propaganda lie. Russia is not sanctioned by most states. Fact.

4. US and UK have intentionally created a false narrative of threat inflation to justify the risky and self harming actions they have taken. There is literally zero evidence that Russia wants to re-create the Soviet Union much less invade further into Europe. Indeed, Putin has repudiated this nonsense.

5. But threat inflation creates unfortunate side effects. It makes diplomacy harder. And the absence of diplomacy is bad news for FXPO which sits in a war zone.

6. Anyone thinking ordinary Russians now despise Putin and want to join the ‘western club’ has consumed far too much propaganda. Russia is a regional nuclear armed power with different geo-strategic interests to the West. It isn’t going to fold, radically change, or surrender those interests. Note that geo strategy is founded on geography. History repeats because geography can’t be changed.

7. Ukraine will always face its larger neighbour to the east. The current Russophobic regime in Kiev which has engaged in a disastrous war will eventually need to change to one which accommodates geographical reality. That needs diplomacy not war based propaganda based on un-reality.

My view is that people should be aware that western propaganda of great Ukrainian resistance and the power of western support is aimed at western citizens. It shouldn’t, IMO, be factored into rational decision making regarding FXPO.

Some fantastical predictions in here of imminent Ukrainian victory in Kherson followed by humiliating Russian withdrawal from Donbas.

The western propaganda machine has been hugely successful in mis-leading its populations in an attempt to maintain an economic and proxy military war on Russia.

The only problem is that reality catches up. The sanctions are impacting Europe far more than Russia, and impoverishing your own citizens is not sustainable.

On the battlefield Ukraine has never launched a successful counter offensive, certainly not on the scale of Kherson. Swallow the hopium all you like but it isn’t going to happen. It’s pure propaganda. Kiev’s forces are de-graded, its military still retreating across most fronts, increasing numbers of units are surrendering or simply retreating. On its 4th or 5th round of mobilisations, it is running out of fighting age people.

Objectively, even BBC shows the map. It is Russia which is advancing. There’s nothing that will change that short of NATO direct involvement, and that’s not going to happen.

So yes, delude yourselves if you wish, believe that all will be different thanks to Himars as you once believed the same of Neptunes and javelins. The media will feed you until Washington decides that something must change.

In the interim Ukraine remains a sacrificial pawn to great power politics. London remains willing to plunge its economy into recession and citizens into grotesque fuel poverty. And we’ll all be fed the lies to make us believe it’s all worth it and Ukraine can prevail.

It can’t and it won’t, and Washington knows this. Meanwhile FXPO remains vulnerable. The longer this goes on the more likely Russia will be to continue to the Dniepr.

Conflict cheerleaders should be careful what they wish for.

There’s no doubt in my mind that we’ve passed peak ‘green’ enthusiasm. The euphoria of COP26 where the UK loudly proclaimed the end of coal is a distant memory of a by-gone age.

Even the UK is now planning to keep coal plants open through the winter. But what will really kill the ‘green’ band-wagon is a combination of inflation, falling living standards and geo-political events like the West’s kamikaze rush to eschew Russian oil and gas.

Because the truth is that when people can’t afford to heat and eat, they certainly won’t be buying electric cars or heat pumps, and politicians trying to sell this mantra will be laughed out of office in short order.

Yes of course the well off will continue to take advantage of subsidies for virtue signalling, but the cruel economic reality for ordinary people is that being ‘green’ is a third order priority in contemporary Britain and much of the West.

None of this means that HZM isn’t a good long term investment, but it’s a reality check for those with their heads in the clouds.

Come on people - I’m a realist not a Russian troll! The school of realism is alive and well in academic circles. It starts from a position of seeing the world as it is not as we would like it to be.

Blaming Russia for all the West’s ills is literally absurd. Pretending that Putin has no real support in Russia is equally delusional.

You may denounce me and report me but to be honest, if the UK has got to the state where anyone expressing a view which deviates from the ruling polemic is silenced, then the so called ‘free world’ has got serious problems.

As a realist I would suggest that Europe will not have peace and security until it learns to live with Russia. The consequences of failing to do this are too terrible to contemplate. Remember we have to operate in the world as it is, not as we would like it to be, acknowledging that our power is really not what it was.

Whilst some of you swallow the hopium which is served daily on western media, the reality is that Russia continues to make slow but steady gains towards the ‘liberation’ (as they call it) of the remainder of Donetsk oblast. It’s also manifestly true to say that Ukraine does not have the people resource base that Russia does. The West can pump in weapons but it can’t create fighting age Ukrainian men to replace the literally tens of thousands of men killed or injured.

Eventually Ukraine will be unable to continue because it can’t match Russian resources. Western media pumps out a different tune, but there’s no escaping reality, even for the old former imperial powers who so loudly cheer from the sidelines.

Another reality is that the FXPO share price continues its inexorable downward slide. War in Ukraine will cripple this company. The longer it continues the more crippled FXPO becomes.

Shareholders won’t like that, but FXPO needs peace asap and that means negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

It’s always convenient to blame Putin for everything, but also fundamentally wrong.

Western countries do have agency, and they are voluntarily prolonging war by supplying weapons, whilst imposing economic sanctions on Russia which are at least as harmful to their own economies.

Moreover, most of the world (which isn’t western) has not joined their sanctions crusade. This means that relative to non western competitors, the west is in a relatively dis-advantageous position. Nowhere is this more apparent than with energy prices. China, India et al are enjoying cheap Russian energy whilst western industry is crippled with high prices.

Finally, it’s not Putin it’s Russia. Putin is not a dictator who has managed, despite no support, to impose his will on a Russian population who really want to be ruled by some pro western liberal.

It’s time that western politicians started to be honest. Blaming Putin or Russia for everything is not being honest.

Not really sure how you manage to positively link RIO share price to a war in Europe and arms supplies.

Whilst this isn’t the place for geopolitics, since you mention it, Ukraine’s ability to coherently wage prolonged war is linked to competent fighting age men as well as weapons. Even with an unlimited supply of the latter I’m not sure how you think the former can be sustained indefinitely against a state with a much greater war fighting potential.

Exactly right Splice, couldn’t agree more. We’re entering a fundamental re-alignment, probably splitting of the old global order. Difficult to predict the future, but I suspect the West is accelerating its own decline relative to Asia.

Yes Poly is not a Russian company, but neither are any of the long list of virtue signalling western corporates voluntarily closing down or suspending their Russia operations.

Then there’s the threat that Russia will nationalise the assets in Russia.

Two can play at economic warfare. The West has torn up its own rules. Russia’s split with the West is now basically irreversible. It won’t sit back and do nothing, particularly with respect to UK interests.

The problem I have with this is that Russia is going to prevail in this war sooner or later but Western media and brain dead political elite continue with this ludicrous trope that Ukraine is going to prevail.

The UK is particularly delusional, and I’m afraid that in a fit of ever more desperate pique, they will continue to destroy the so called ‘rules based order’ that they created. In that sense I could see Poly being suspended or de-listed.

Because what is happening here is a disastrous humiliation of the so called ‘West’, and having talked so much complete nonsense from the start about how Putin must be seen to lose, it’s going to be difficult for Johnson et al to find an off ramp when the charade of Ukrainian victory becomes too much even for the partisans of Sky, BBC etc to sustain.

Johnson must be seen to be doing something. There’s not a lot else left he can do, except virtue signalling by such as ensuring that companies operating in Russia, paying Russian citizens, are de-listed.

There is some reason for optimism with an eventual ceasefire agreement. But it won’t be because of a ‘Ukrainian tactical victory’ as the western media like to describe. On the contrary, Ukraine will be the party making concessions such as neutrality, recognition of Crimea as Russian, and some movement on the separatist republics.

However, any agreement is good for FXPO’s share price. Russian occupation of the assets is not on the agenda and never has been. So I discount fear of expropriation. IMO at this price it’s now a highly speculative buy. DYOR.

I was a LTH here but sold out at some loss at about 800p because I could see that the West was determined to launch an economic war on Russia.

Now I’m considering buying back in, but not yet. The issue for me is not what the West will do, and I discount (indeed ignore) the absurd Russophobia and Offenbachi fake news of western media.

This issue for me is what Russia will do next in the way of counter sanctions. I think the barely hidden Russophobia in the recent Poly RNSs is a mistake.

I note statements by both Mishustin and Peskov today which are explicit. Russia will take counter measures against western interests.

I’m waiting to see what those measures are before investing. The problem with economic war and tearing up your own rule book is that two can play at that game.

DYOR and GLA.

I don’t think the US is going to permit Kiev to negotiate a ceasefire. That want to prolong conflict as long as possible.

The risk remains that Russia nationalised the assets. Economic war, as the West proclaims it, is not a one way street.

I can only see a very significant fall tomorrow. Following the West’s mutual back slapping over Russia’s selective expulsion from SWIFT and the freezing of its US held reserves, they would be unusually delusional to expect no Russian response.

That response has been hinted by Medvedev this weekend - the nationalisation of western owned assets. Gold mines would fit that bill nicely.

I have been a long term holder of Poly but no longer. Western governments are about to make all of our investments worthless through their much hyped economic war on Russia (and it is an economic war). Russia won’t sit idly by supplying gas etc whilst the West tries to selectively kill it without harming its own economies. You’re welcome playing with fire.

Also, I hold little hope of negotiations being successful. The West probably believes its own propaganda about how wonderfully Ukraine is doing. They will double down on the policy of fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian.

Pedrobull,

Putin is not a nazi. That’s historically illiterate.

Secondly, you accuse others of ‘selfish’ views whilst saying he must be stopped at all costs - including presumably a nuclear war which would kill millions of innocent people. Isn’t that view extremely selfish?

Either way, presume you agree that FXPO is worthless now.

The West has now virtually guaranteed through its weaponisation of SWIFT, that investments in FXPO are now worthless. Russia will retaliate and FXPO’s assets will likely sit in a Russian controlled area.

Thank your own governments for your losses.

Truth is the first casualty of war, and the western media have managed a very slick media campaign to date.

But that doesn’t change hard facts on the ground. Ukraine is going to lose this conflict, sooner or later. Most of the world outside US and Europe are studiously neutral if not actively backing Russia.

There isn’t going to be a ‘palace coup’.

Russia will retaliate and seizure of western assets looks very possible - as Medvedev stated yesterday.

Evraz is no longer investable IMO.

Certainly not selling here. Western markets, in keeping with their elite’s xenophobia, are in Russia bashing over-drive.

Still no invasion, no blitzkrieg on Kiev. In fact Russia has merely done what it has been accused of doing for the last 8 years - namely occupying what used to be Ukrainian controlled territory in Donbas.

Against this back-drop, and as the west slowly realises that its ‘sanctions from hell’ amount to shooting itself in the foot, the intrinsic value in JRS will become apparent again.

All IMO. DYOR.