Member Info for mikemike

Sonic one of the MED due diligence has come in two weeks early, so that milestone is done and in advance, a first and a record for KIBO

Still do not know why he did not just have a mega RNS for KIBO ;)

All about MED

JD well spotted, looks like LC may be telling more.

Sonic go to the web page and scroll down to the bottom three slides. Click on the right one and it will direct you to the recent presentation.

Not easy to find

i am pleased they have reverted back to the older format as it was far easier for me to follow. Confused me at first as I was convinced it had not been updated.

drax you are wrong

Only LSE admin can remove posts, No one posting here has such authority.

As admin will have done the deed they must believe a post is inappropriate, for what ever reason.

''Folk tend to be as happy as they choose to be''

Abraham Lincoln

I choose to be happy that the minister has ''owned the process''

The following link is relevant to us as page 1 covers the SML situation for Peak resources.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190129/pdf/4424n4s4grvx57.pdf

Gillie

I asked St Brides by email if there would be an audio visual of any meeting. and for it to be placed on the web page.

As usual they have not responded

Joff

''I am registered on HC but can't navigate it to save my life.''

I had the same problem when they changed the format. Now when you sign in go to the very bottom of the page where the 'field' is black. The bottom click on is for ''old hotcopper'' that will take you to the easy to navigate version Top left box type in 88e and enter and you are in, suggest then just book mark

Lazarus has had a moment of epihany.

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-quarterly-activities-report-appendix-5b.4614037/page-23?post_id=37232613#.XEvLV1wzbIV

''A follow up to yesterday's initial observations....and wrt to my comments on Yukon Gold in particular. Upon reflection, I may have been taking too literally the wording "development" in the description of internal modelling of break-even price. It would not make sense for the 'under USD40' figure to only pertain to 'development' costs...as that would imply a USD3-3.5 billion development cost for what should be a few handfuls of wells and a near distance tie-in to Port Thompson facilities. Doesn't pass the sniff test. So, more than likely it is a modeled breakeven price at which NPV equals zero for full field development and full life-cycle resource extraction.

On that basis (using USD40 b/e)....and with similar assumptions used in past estimates of their NPV factors.... at a POO of USD61 (current approximate), the NPV of full field development and resource extraction is between USD 5 and USD6 per bbl. If POO hits USD70, then the NPV grows a bit to between USD 7 and 8. Obviously the lion's share of this NPV would have to go to the operator that funds this development and extraction....so the question becomes how much of that NPV is 'retained' by 88E by FO or SO. Perhaps USD1 per bbl?? Maybe more?

Each USD per bbl for 80m bbls at Cascade translates to an AUD 'value' of about one and a half cents per share on a fully diluted basis. But more importantly, gives the company a sizeable warchest to unlock value in Icewine.

Of course, a rising POO helps, but not so much as to dictate a waiting game for us as a seller. On these numbers, the time to deal on Yukon is now (i.e this year). A conclusion which is 180 degrees from what I implied yesterday. eek.png Oh well!

All IMO and as always, I may be totally wrong.''

Joff

Your response re small numbers made me chuckle

laz was responding to him on his HC name

In addition laz has been here from the start and has made more than a few very detailed and reasoned posts be they on side or contrarian. he deals at top board room end and knows his way about. his post was reasoned and is subject to you asking why? without it being an issue. you will never get an ''I am right'' and everyone else is wrong response from him.

Joff

Suggest you copy your post on HC for Lazarus. He is very quick to to give sensible detailed reasoned responses.

Moneyhawk

I had a quick read of this part.

''Yukon Gold is really all just about Cascade, and breakeven development price here (due to PT assets nearby) is under $US40/bbl.This sounds high to me as the difference between revenue (POO) and this development breakeven number would need to fund, royalties, opex, transport costs and profit margin...of which only the latter drives any value to this prospect''

I think from this Lazarus has only identified the costs relating to ''development'' which is capex only. The figure of 40$ for capex alone does look too high.

Lazarus has questioned this as if it does not include the Opex it just does not make financial sense. Unless ANS price climbs rapidly.

I will not be asking him now as I suspect he will follow this up with DW and report back on HC

Money hawk

Apologies for duplicating the post, put it down to a seniors moment. Anyway it is so good it is now posted twice:)

My impression is that the BE price covers capex and opex which includes royalties. I do recall back in the day we discussed this when the P50 figures were covered at 40$ for the HRZ and the tested figures did suggest that this was an all in BE . This may indicate that the Cheaper to get at Conventional should not be higher BE figure. I will drop a quick note to lazarus to see if we can get a better understanding of where he is coming from.

The below are just the views of another poster re the quarterly update.

''Quite aside from the mandatory nature of the reporting, I did take some new insights from the report. They may not be new to the market, but they were new to me. Or at least my interpretation was new to me. Key points for me (some new and some confirmations of known news):

While IW conventional farmout discussions are ongoing and potential partners interest and calibre "remained highly encouraging", it dawned on me that the feedback they are getting may be that interest is 'limited' to the Schrader/Topset leads and prospects - as the reservoir quality of the deeper Seabee and Torok formations are "deemed a key risk factor"... "due to depth of burial and compaction". While that is still 763m barrels (net mean unrisked to 88e), it is a far cry short of the 2,211m bbls (net mean unrisked to 88e) of the entire Western Play. This may explain the time it is taking...and is certainly conditioning my expectations as the extent of FO that may be initially delivered for IW conventional. A tempering point for me.

Reports of the demise of the HRZ shale play (IW unconventional), are plausibly premature. Indeed they may be as erroneous as many have argued, despite market sentiment. Independent validation of the work done so far, in conjunction with collaboration with USGS and newer tests that are now emerging, suggest that we may see a credible plan for a horizontal test flow test in the HRZ to "unlock its considerable value for shareholders". Analysis complete 1H 2019. An encouraging point for me.
Yukon Gold is really all just about Cascade, and breakeven development price here (due to PT assets nearby) is under $US40/bbl.This sounds high to me as the difference between revenue (POO) and this development breakeven number would need to fund, royalties, opex, transport costs and profit margin...of which only the latter drives any value to this prospect. ANS West Coast on 23/1/19 was $61.12/bbl. Royalties at that price is around $10, and we know from earlier work done by 88e that transport costs are in the order of $6.50 / bbl. Which leaves about $4.50 / bbl for opex and profit margin. We clearly need a much higher POO for Yukon Gold to unlock its value. A sobering point for me.
Winx-1 remains on target and we all know its potential.....nothing new here today. This is rightly where all the near term interest lies.

A lot of IMO applies to the above, obviously....but the quarterly has helped me calibrate where I believe we are and my associated expectations. I suspect that the current price fairly reflects the risks and uncertainties, as they have been portrayed and implied. The SOI is also a factor in that.''

The above from Lazarus on HC who has shared his views. My earlier post sharing the above was reported and removed

LTI

it is not possible to recommend your own posts unless you have more than one name here etc

The RNS does tell us how much is in the bank and the forward guidance on costs all in $AUS as the company main register is in Australia.

I understand that the debt shown is covered by SOA rebates plus credit monies due as the amount owed is larger than the debt. I suspect we may not see those funds this SOA fiscal year ending June this year.

There is a spud rebate from WINX, for 1.2m $ US, from memory of the RNS announcing the winx drill with partners plus terms and conditions etc.

I think that this alone means that there are no immediate financial concerns. Assuming that FO does not arrive until end of March, or until after completion of flow tests. there sufficient funds to take us through to the next farm out process for HRZ etc.

Should WINX be the success that most hope for. This may drive the SP to above 6c$AUS. The last time this price was achieved we saw the Options due on or before October 2021 getting partially converted adding to the bank account. The amount outstanding now stands at close to 8.4m $AUS.

How much of that will be converted if the price is hit, may be higher than last time, as time has moved on and the shares in issue are far higher than when those options were bought. Those options were bought for the HRZ play which has not yet showed us its potential. So the Options holders may be more keen to convert.

From Lazarus on HC

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-quarterly-activities-report-appendix-5b.4614037/page-10?post_id=37223103#.XErzZ1wzbIU

''Quite aside from the mandatory nature of the reporting, I did take some new insights from the report. They may not be new to the market, but they were new to me. Or at least my interpretation was new to me. Key points for me (some new and some confirmations of known news):

While IW conventional farmout discussions are ongoing and potential partners interest and calibre "remained highly encouraging", it dawned on me that the feedback they are getting may be that interest is 'limited' to the Schrader/Topset leads and prospects - as the reservoir quality of the deeper Seabee and Torok formations are "deemed a key risk factor"... "due to depth of burial and compaction". While that is still 763m barrels (net mean unrisked to 88e), it is a far cry short of the 2,211m bbls (net mean unrisked to 88e) of the entire Western Play. This may explain the time it is taking...and is certainly conditioning my expectations as the extent of FO that may be initially delivered for IW conventional. A tempering point for me.

Reports of the demise of the HRZ shale play (IW unconventional), are plausibly premature. Indeed they may be as erroneous as many have argued, despite market sentiment. Independent validation of the work done so far, in conjunction with collaboration with USGS and newer tests that are now emerging, suggest that we may see a credible plan for a horizontal test flow test in the HRZ to "unlock its considerable value for shareholders". Analysis complete 1H 2019. An encouraging point for me.

Yukon Gold is really all just about Cascade, and breakeven development price here (due to PT assets nearby) is under $US40/bbl.This sounds high to me as the difference between revenue (POO) and this development breakeven number would need to fund, royalties, opex, transport costs and profit margin...of which only the latter drives any value to this prospect. ANS West Coast on 23/1/19 was $61.12/bbl. Royalties at that price is around $10, and we know from earlier work done by 88e that transport costs are in the order of $6.50 / bbl. Which leaves about $4.50 / bbl for opex and profit margin. We clearly need a much higher POO for Yukon Gold to unlock its value. A sobering point for me.

Winx-1 remains on target and we all know its potential.....nothing new here today. This is rightly where all the near term interest lies.

A lot of IMO applies to the above, obviously....but the quarterly has helped me calibrate where I believe we are and my associated expectations. I suspect that the current price fairly reflects the risks and uncertainties, as they have been portrayed and implied. The SOI is also a factor in that.

GLTA.''

Monty 888

Yet another non viable post that is standard

So standard you probably copied and pasted it from Genl where you do not know that they cannot drill in the summer as the sand melts.

I understand from the Debenhams Bb you are the self confessed expert in Chinese mainland investing.

No end to your talents, O & G Uk retail industry, and all things China

TD

How do you know that lurker is accurate?

Lurke

why not go to the investors evening with your spreadsheets and nail LC down?