RE: A new chapter21 Dec 2025 01:02
Incidentally Skelly, the previous was based on a DCF calculation basis.....when compared in real terms to Keliber, see below;
7️⃣ Sensitivity: Conservative vs Optimistic
Scenario Assumptions EMH Value
Very conservative 60% discount to Keliber ~£1.38
Base case 50% discount ~£1.70
Optimistic (EU strategic premium) 40% discount ~£2.10
Parity with Keliber (post-FID) Minimal discount £3.40+
8️⃣ Why This Method Is Powerful
This Keliber-based approach has several advantages over pure DCF:
✅ Uses real market transactions, not assumptions
✅ Reflects EU strategic value, not just commodity pricing
✅ Automatically embeds permitting, ESG, and jurisdictional risk
✅ Aligns with how industrial buyers value assets
In practice, large miners and automakers think this way, not in isolation DCF spreadsheets.
In my opinion, whatever way you cut this now that the DFS is out, we have got to be on a winner.