Member Info for miavoce

The RNS issued today says 'The New Shares rank pari passu with the existing issued Ordinary Shares. Following the issue of the New Shares, the Company's enlarged share capital comprises 791,917,828 Ordinary Shares with voting rights. '

So it certainly looks like these new shares can be used for voting at the GM.

AB124

at the last GM 59% of shares (i.e. 440m) had been voted, and of these approx 70% we're for (308m) and 30% (132m) were against. Assuming the 132m against stays roughly unchanged then the for's need about 88m additional votes to get to the 396m necessary to win (i.e. 3 times the 132m against). Redmile now have 53m of these so just needs 35m from PI's or other II's.

Bear in mind that 310m shares hadn't been voted at the time of the last GM, so it only takes about 15% of these to have now voted 'yes', in addition to the extra 53m Redmile votes, to pass the resolution.

The extra 53m will be over half of the extra votes needed to pass the resolution (assuming no significant increase in votes against). Hopefully the PI's who have now voted plus the votes of whoever the holders that were referred to in the adjournment RNS, will be enough to close the remaining gap.

Hi LL

Hargreaves Lansdowne also allow you to inform them of your proxy vote by using their secure message function.

Here is my hypothesis on the Redmile investments.

When Redmile made their first investment I believe they already fully understood the potential of Scancell’s products. They are a top class biotech investor and I don’t think they invested in a tiny UK biotech without first doing their research.

I also believe that they had 2 clear objectives from the beginning:-

1. Take a big stake in Scancell in order to get a large return.
2. In doing so, provide Scancell with sufficient financial firepower to progress their products rapidly so that this return comes as quickly as possible.

So, if this was their objective what did they not simply invest £40m back in August ?

I think the answer to this is that to raise £40m at 5.5p Scancell would have had to issue 727m shares. Given that there were only 465m shares in issue at the time this would have meant that Redmile would be getting 60% of the company for £40m. Not withstanding the take-over implications, I’m sure that all major shareholders and many PI’s would have voted against such a cheap give-away of most of Scancell.

So, I believe that Redmile are making their investment in a series of tranches where they build up an increasing stake at prices that are acceptable to the shareholders (i.e. will be approved at the related GM’s). They will of course always try go get the largest stake they can get voted through at the lowest cost - maybe the parties voting against think the current fundraise amount of £30m priced at 13p gives Redmile too big a stake for too little cost ?

It may be that this investment will be Redmile’s last tranche, or they may be back for more in the future at a higher price - I suspect the former because if the motion is approved at the GM Scancell will have enough cash to get solid data on several products and, if the data is good, will be able to strike deals or will get bought out for (IMO) significantly more than 1 billion.

I voted for the motion btw.

It is going to be a very tight vote....

Moonparty - in my example 2 additional lots of 10 apples (i.e. 10% of total apples) are needed to go from 70 / 30 to 75 / 25.

Indeed Falsedawn I fully agree. An additional 85m million (or thereabouts) are needed if there are no additional 'against' votes.

Remember, the 'for' side needs more than an additional five percent 5% of shares issues in order to get to a 75 / 25 position.

Imagine there are 200 apples.
I have 70 of them and you have 30 (100 are still in the basket). We have a 70 / 30 split in our positions.
If I take 10 more (5% of the total) I have 80 and you have 30. In percent terms this is 72.7% to 27.3%.
To get to 75% vs 25% I need to take a further 10 apples from the basket so that I have 90. This means I have taken 20 additional apples from the basket (10% of the total apples)

Hi katnick

by my reckoning from the RNS:-
Votes representing 435m shares had been cast before the AGM (59% of issued shares)
Votes against were approx 130m (30% of 435m)
Votes for were 305m (70% of 435m)

To get to a 75% position for the motion the for side needs 390m votes (i.e. 3 x the against side who have 130m)
This means 85m additional for votes must be obtained.

Also worth noting that Vulpes came in while we were on our knees and have picked up most their shares for an absolute steal. Redmile are willing to put in much bigger money at a much higher price....they really must sniff a huge return here.

Thanks LL. I used the Secure Message facility as pointed out by ciaskin.

Vote submitted.

Thanks ciaskin.

Anyone know how I cast a vote if I hold my share in a HL SIPP ?

Thanks LL.

If we don't submit a vote is this automatically counted as a vote in favour, or do we have to actually submit a vote ?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54696873

This seems to play in favour of Scancell's vaccine. Seems that the presence of antibodies falls quite quickly after infection.

Douve, ref the min price of any takeover offer that Redmile might make. I believe that the min. would be the highest price that Redmile have paid, not the highest price that has been paid in the market. The min. offer price would therefore be 13p (although clearly an offer at this price would fail).