RE: Need info!14 Feb 2022 20:07
Hi Cygnus. You obviously need to do you own research and make your own decisions but, as someone who holds both UFO and XTR, I’m happy to offer a few thoughts:
1. Lots of similarities between the two companies: big projects in Aus plus other projects elsewhere; mcap in the same ballpark; major projects to some extent derisked by drilling.
2. XTR’s mcap is 45% higher at current prices.
3. I’m not sure about your comment that XTR is known to have at least one major actively interested. AA has in effect a right of first refusal over Bushranger, but is it known that they are likely to exercise the right, or even seriously interested in exercising it? I’m not sure it is. As an XTR holder, I’m certainly not counting on AA buying.
4. I actually think it’s a major strength of both companies (and a key reason for me investing in both) that they don’t necessarily need a deep-pocketed partner to get their projects producing. At UFO, Hanc0ck is a simple, low-cost start up, with such quick payback that loan finance or a finance deal with an offtake partner seem likely to be possible. EH may be similar; and even if not, profits from Hanc0ck can fund other projects if necessary. At XTR, the Africa assets should help enable a debt finance package for Bushranger open pit if necessary.
5. At present, XTR has scale, while UFO has grade. UFO may also add scale.
Overall, I really like both companies and will be amazed if holders don’t make lots of money over the next few years. I actually think UFO is both safer and with higher upside (and consequently I hold more UFO). In particular, despite the AA option, I think the risk of a struggle to get to production is slightly greater at XTR, while UFO offers a shot at a 50-bagger that XTR realistically does not