Member Info for Metalhead25

Surely easier just to say hope it’s good news. If it is, it doesn’t matter that it was released on a Friday. If it isn’t, it doesn’t help that it’s released on a Monday

FK, as one of the people who has proposed something vaguely like your point 2, can I clarify that I am not in any way suggesting that Kav would do anything improper or illegal, including wrongly manipulating any prices. In fact, quite the opposite - what I am suggesting is that it would be ethically or even perhaps legally problematic to exercise the option while holding back inside information, and that the absolutely right and ethical thing to do is to get the information out and then, if it warrants a new negotiation over the option, to have one

Ella, yes, if they had been able to release the KSZ news earlier, that would also have fixed the issue I’m conjecturing. But perhaps they were not able to release it earlier (for whatever reason - many have been kicked around this bb over several weeks)

Ella, because they can’t tell the Molopo counterparties the reason for wanting a 3-week extension, until the KSZ news is out. They can’t say “we’ve got some big news, we need to release that on Monday and then renegotiate”. Because that itself would be insider dealing. They can only say “please can we have just have a few more days”. So you make the minimum request necessary to create the window to get the news out. Then you are free to explain why you need a longer extension

Legalwolf, the problem is that the propriety of holding back the inside info could be disputed.

Let’s imagine that the KSZ news is bad and that if it had been released 10 days ago the 10-day VWAP would have been 3p. Instead Kav holds the info back and exercises the option at 4.9p. If you were the sellers, wouldn’t you be furious and cry foul? Of course you would. And it would be a recipe for litigation, not to mention completely alienating a JV partner.

And on the other side, say the KSZ news is good and in three weeks time the Kav SP will be 15p. Yet Kav hold the info back and exercise the option at 4.9p. Now the effect is that Kav has paid three times too much (suffered three times too much dilution) for the Molopo interest. As a Kav shareholder, aren’t you annoyed? I am!

I do think that in practical terms they have to get the info out before they exercise. And that the news is likely to be good for the reason I mentioned

Cox, if I’m right there’s no need at all to pump the price up before close of business on Monday. The option will just be extended again on Monday. All that is required is time to get the inside info out

Hi all. I have thought about this in more detail and increasingly think we are likely due some good news on the KSZ on Monday morning. DYOR of course, but here’s my reasoning for anyone interested:

1. I start from the premise that the KAV directors have inside information about the KSZ. Surely by now they must do.
2. That means that the 10-day VWAP for the Molopo option is currently artificially low or high, compared to what it would be if the inside information were released.
3. I can see that there would be real issues with exercising the option in these circumstances. If the current price is artificially high, you can’t exercise and then release the inside info as the counterparties would be furious. If it’s artificially low, you can’t exercise and then release the info because that is needlessly detrimental to Kav.
4. Accordingly, if the option is to be exercised, Kav needs first to publish its inside info. I think that’s what the extension is for.
5. I don’t think the option will be exercised on Monday as the 10-day VWAP would then still include 9 days of artificial pricing. Instead I think the option will be extended for renegotiation on Monday so the pricing becomes fair again.
6. Why should the KSZ news be positive on this view, rather than negative? Only because I think if it were negative the short term impact on the SP would be such that the option would then not be exercised at all. And in that scenario there’s no need for the extension (inside info is not an impediment to allowing an option to expire).
7. I don’t think “awaiting results of Molopo work” is an adequate alternative explanation, because it doesn’t engage with the fact that Kav has inside info. Even if work on Molopo is being done over the weekend, I still don’t see how Kav can exercise on Monday if they haven’t released what they know about the KSZ. So I think the MAIN driver for the extension has in any event to be the need to release the inside info

Thanks Ella. I suppose it could also be that they just need the weekend to make a decision on the option - it could be nothing to do with pricing

To those who have been looking at the option terms, is the following a reasonable inference:

- Kav basically wants to exercise the option
- Kav couldn’t exercise by the original deadline because of VWAP issues; therefore if forced to choose Kav would not exercise
- On Monday Kav expects to release news which will push VWAP up
- Accordingly, on Monday afternoon, Kav will be able to exercise

Does this stack up?

Silver’s RSI is only 67 so could run a bit yet…

Honestly, I have a day without looking at this board and return to 75 posts - unheard of!

Looks like very good news re Avonmouth and I would have thought this is very likely to be the reason for the delay to the financial close news.

Re Tring Rd, do we know that an application was made but rejected? Or could it just be that no application was made in this round? I couldn’t see any reference to Tring Rd either way?

Slight note of caution re timing: if (a) there is a deal ready to go but it has been awaiting this news, and (b) there was a single deal covering Avonmouth and Tring Rd, and (c) an application re Tring Rd was actually rejected, then it could be that some rejigging of the deal is needed before financial close can occur, resulting in some more delay. Not saying this will happen - it’s only in a very specific scenario. Just mentioning so people can factor into their timing expectations

Pedro, Mambare is a JV with an Australian company called Battery metals and they are the principal operator

Disagree about the SP - all miners were down the last couple of days on Ukraine. The SP here has basically been steady around 5p

It is Mambare but not the mining licence

That’s not the Mambare mining licence is it?

CP, agreed. Whatever is holding this share back, it certainly isn’t the size of the PNG resources!

Just noticed that the current company presentation does say on page 11 that “debt repayment / refinance” is to be in early Q1 2022. Notably, it is scheduled to be slightly in advance of the peaker close, the inference perhaps being that the peaker development fee is to be used to do more FGS projects rather than for general costs

Well I’ve never had an overly high average as I try to have the discipline not to buy on anything that could by any stretch of the imagination turn out to be a spike! I prefer to accumulate while we’re drifting around medium term lows with a sentiment best described as “meh”. Hence buying today. I also sometimes sell a few (small proportion) when we move up. So for example I bought at 1.57 a few weeks ago, which in retrospect wasn’t a great move, but that money was funded from selling the same amount at 1.9 a week or so before that. This feels like a good buying window to me, although can always be wrong of course

Mike, you keep beating my buy prices :-)

Ah well, when the nickel MOU was reported we were all saying it was a bargain around 2p and nothing material has changed, so I feel very confident anywhere around this level

CP, I disagree. The company has made clear its commitment to avoid discount placings into the market and has delivered on that commitment here. It doesn’t make sense to me to assume that, before delivering on their commitment, they tried but failed to renege on it!