Member Info for Metalhead25

I like to think they did that on purpose for a laugh

There’s no way that tweet has anything to do with this drill! He’s just mooching about on Twitter while on his lunch break or whatever, surely

Oil tap, allow me to highlight for you the troublesome words in your post:

“ Ignoring the egotistical loons, , the operational update is very good. Hedge clearance in the *next* two weeks, *ramping* up production via the additional stopes, massive copper tonnage *forecast* … back to normal *soon* enough.”

Change those words to past tense and the company may have some investment merit again. As long as they’re in future tense, the company’s forecasts and plans are to be presumed based on experience to be wrong. The “massive tonnage” they’re forecasting for 2022 is in fact the very same tonnage they forecast for 2021, before royally screwing that year up. What will happen in 2022? CFO taken in by scam and sends placing proceeds to a wealthy investor who just needs a few million and he’ll send you back $50m in a month? Discovery of a derelict nuclear reactor in the LFZ which needs decommissioning? They’ve forgotten to obtain enough trucks to move the new larger amounts of ore around and there’s a 3 month lead time to get them? Place your bets!

It does but only if you believe the forecast. If you believed any forecasts in the previous year you were disappointed

Three months ago Rambler raised finance of $22m. According to the RNS, cash prior to this raise was $2m. Twenty million dollars spaffed up the wall in three months. And that’s after whatever revenue has been earned selling copper. Can this really be right? I suppose they used some of the $22m to repay previous debt. Even so, the last three months is revealed as an appalling fiasco. As always, the line from the optimists will be “yes it’s been bad but we’re nearly there”. But that is always the line. I’m afraid this company is just failing

This share certainly does require patience!

I would say the lease can’t have expired because if it had that would surely have to have been RNS’d this morning, whereas if it was extended that might not be deemed price sensitive and could just be the subject of the next general FGS update

Please can we keep this argument about ARCM off this board? No doubt there are strong feelings about it, but for most people here it’s just none of our concern. As for warning us, that may be well-intentioned, but I doubt anyone here has the spare time to research the rights and wrongs of this ARCM row so as to form a view; and even if we did, the maximum sanction anyone can apply is a green box. Seems to me there is more threat to this board from an over-spilling toxic feud than from any individual poster having a negative bias (or not, as the case may be)

I’m not surprised we’ve had a bit of a retrace today. The share price ran up pretty fast late last week, and moreover the rise came against a backdrop of many holders having been pretty grumpy (in some cases despairing) about the price action in the months prior - so I don’t find it surprising that some would rather “get out” in the 0.8s and 0.9s than risk their holding going red again. I think the psychology is extremely easy to understand and sympathise with.

On the other hand, according to my way of looking at things, anyone “getting out” now is making a poor decision because what they’re getting out of is a company which has three great projects in a top jurisdiction, all of which are known to contain high levels and grades of valuable metals, all of which are near surface, and at least two of which look like cranking out big profits a year and a bit from now.

I won’t go as far as to say I want the price to drop further so I can buy more (although I would). I’m happy with what I have. But I’m also not worried about the share price. In two years’ time we will be killing it. I see this as low risk / high reward, and the short term meanderings of the share price are irrelevant to that.

One final point. If disgruntled historic holders are rotating out as ambitious new holders come in, that’s healthy for all concerned. I’m glad those who were not happy got their exit, and I’m glad their shares are now held by people who believe in where we’re going. Win win!

I believe the geos have been happy to see coal because it is a source of sulphur enabling the formation of metal sulphides

My guess is they slowed down to do DHEM again. The best comparator from the past is December when we heard nothing for ages and then it turned out they hadn’t reached the target yet because they had paused for DHEM

I haven’t checked the old RNS but if it says expiry today that will mean end of today, so you would expect news in relation to it either tomorrow or within a few days

If they had gone through the conductor Thursday to Saturday as you suggest I would think we’d have had an RNS or a leak or both by now (whether good news or bad). I think the most logical interpretation of silence plus no big sp move is that they’ve been slowed down

Perfectly possible we don’t hear for several more days and then it’s explained they had to slow down for x, y or z reason. On all previous occasions, operational slowdowns have been reported only subsequently, not contemporaneously, resulting in periods where shareholder understanding had diverged from reality

“If not we probably didn’t hit”. Personally I think that is over-extrapolating from the known information (that we were at 410m whenever it was). In December everything thought we should have been at TD a week or two previous and then it turned out we were at 350m. The best thing to do is wait for confirmation one way or the other, not guess!

Haha, sorry Max, nicked that link off your Twitter but you also beat me to it on the board :-)

Apologies if already posted, but iron ore on a tear in Aus this weekend: https://twitter.com/commsec/status/1487878233970249729?s=21

My current positioning is based on a numerical analysis roughly as follows.

Let’s say hypothetically I have £80k in KAV at current levels.

Scenario 1: Drill perceived as failure. I anticipate a short term paper loss of c £20-35k. I continue to hold. I am confident the share price recovers in time (we have many great projects, plus more angles on the KSZ). I still think I come out ahead. No real harm done.

Scenario 2: Drill perceived as success. I anticipate a short term paper profit of c £80-150k. Longer term, I believe that continues to grow and grow, ultimately if things go our way past £1 million, even past £2 million, who knows where it ends.

To me, the big risk here is of missing out on scenario 2. And yes you can try to buy back in after positive news, but there’s going to be a lot of NT to buy and it will be hard to build a big position at any sort of decent price; you’ll end up with barely over half as many shares in my view.

As F79 often says, I know what the downside risks are. I prefer them to the risk of being out!

Yes, I also took from the webinar that Ditau, LVR and Kanye are more than enough and that we don’t need Molopo at the moment

I thought the webinar was good. Interesting that they are now looking into the possibility of sulphides at Ditau and planning to run a TDEM survey of I10 in the very near future. That means we have at least three geophysical results to look forward to in the near future:

1. DHEM at A2
2. AMT at GRS
3. TDEM at I10

I’m particularly interested in the AMT. The company is keeping its cards close to its chest about what’s in the Proterozoic at the GRS but instinctively I feel excited about it and think there’s something there. That instinct is totally worthless, of course, in an objective sense. Still excited for the AMT :-)