Member Info for Metalhead25

TA not my cup of tea but each approach has its place, and no I can’t beat your average :-)

Smiller, hard to argue based on current prices, but fair to say the generally accepted outlook for PGMs and silver is better than for iron ore. Myself, I’m happy to be diversified across various metals, with great projects in several arenas

Hi all. Haven’t followed the hundreds of messages that closely over the past couple of days so apologies if this is duplicative. However, while putting kids to bed I thought I’d have a bit of fun kicking some numbers around on our three projects which we know the most about - Hammersley, Munni Munni and EH. Lots of guesswork here and DYOR of course.

Hammersley. We know we have 10MT of DSO grade iron ore at Hanc0ck. There has been widespread optimism on this board that this will increase significantly through current and future drilling. Let’s assume 20MT for Hanc0ck. Then there’s Brockman. In their Feb 2021 note, TP gave a low case for Brockman of 67MT and a high case of 233MT. Let’s assume a midpoint of 150MT. That gives us 170MT for Hammersley as a whole. Current DSO iron ore price $130/t, opex per scoping study $60/t, shipping say $15/t, equals operating margin $55/t. 170MT at $55/t gives $9,350,000,000 lifetime operating profit. Reduce to reflect Alien 90% stake, round down for capex (virtually irrelevant in this calculation), inefficiencies etc and we get gross future value of c. $8bn.

Munni Munni. According to TP’s Nov 2021 note, this has a 2004 JORC resource which includes (current spot value in brackets): 1.14 MoZ Pd ($2.7bn), 0.83 MoZ Pt ($835m), 152KoZ Au ($270m) and 76KoZ Rh ($1.28bn). Total spot price $5bn. I don’t know what it will cost to get all this out of the ground but note that the resource is not especially deep. Let’s say AISC of $1200 per gold equivalent ounce, implying one third profit margin. So $1.67bn lifetime operating profit, round down for capex, inefficiencies etc: gross future value c. $1.2bn.

EH. The one everyone is excited about at the moment but also the one we know least about. A lot of guessing/hoping here but if you imagine we have an ore body 150m x 150m x 50m you get c. 3.375MT of ore. If we assume/hope 50 oz/t Ag, that’s about 170m ounces. Silver spot $22/Oz, AISC $10/Oz gives lifetime operating profit of c. $2bn. Round down for capex, inefficiencies etc: gross future value c. $1.75bn.

So much speculation, of course. But fun, eh? Then there’s Munni Munni North, San Celso, Los Campos, Donovan 2, and Greenland :-)

Yes, if the rate of progress has remained the same they’ll be there or thereabouts today and over the weekend. Then again, they may have been slowed down by something so no point holding breath - the news will come when it’s ready!

Thanks Mike, and good luck to you too. I’m not worried about the peaker negotiations and I obviously recognise they’re confidential. I just think if you’ve given a timescale for something and it has clearly slipped a bit you should just come out and say we’re still negotiating, new timescale is x. Doesn’t even have to be an RNS or detailed interview, a tweet would do!

Mike, good to see you on UFO board today - didn’t know you were in that one. Expecting big things there - top 3 small caps for me, along with Corcel of course.

Returning to the matter in hand, I think it’s about time Scott gave us an update on the peakers - even if there’s nothing to say except it’s on track but not quite there yet

I would really caution against anyone fixating on the short term share price. No doubt these results will pull in new investors, but whether that happens instantly or over a few days or weeks we will see. At the same time, there has been a lot of misery on this board of late and I am in no doubt there are plenty of holders who will take any rise as a chance to move on. It’s not always easy but it really is better to take a longer term view, to accept today’s RNS as exciting and a significant derisk event, and relax

Roofer, not a real premium - the share price is lagging because it’s NT most of the time and then the MMs have to catch up

Am I right that in terms of gold equivalent the 9.7m at 8326 g/t Ag is equivalent to 106 g/t gold? I must be miscalculating surely? I have never heard of an explorer finding 10 metres at over 100 g/t gold, or anything like that. I must be getting it wrong?

I’m mostly joking :-)

People are just waiting for the news now. 6p hard to crack unless and until we get a positive result. If it turns out it’s still hard to crack after that, I’m selling the rest of my portfolio and going 100% KAV!

Yep, fair enough Siennaj, hopefully the next move is in the right direction - it really should be given the value of our projects

Just noticed the K-M deal is 100m pounds, not dollars. Even better!

Siennaj, with all due respect, you’ve only been here about a month (I think) and in that time you’ve seen a major offtake MOU signed and you must be up 20+% on your buy in price. Saying things are going too slow seems a bit unfair! Fwiw, my experience of this company over a longer period is that timings may slip a bit but the board does deliver

My £4k at the bell :-)

Dicko, I don’t have shares in AMC, if that’s what you mean! Also, AMC already spiked yesterday, and I don’t buy rumours after spikes!

PS, it seems the rumour is true: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AMC/press-speculation-share-price-movement-aptrp1949kkfh3l.html

Hi all

Big rumour yesterday that Amur Minerals (AMC) have had an offer of $100m for their Kun-Marie nickel project in East Russia. Kun-Marie has 1.58MT contained nickel. Mambare has 1.53MT, Wowo Gap has 1.33MT. Also, Kun-Marie is beset with logistical problems - I believe (from following AMC in the past) that the project requires the construction of a new 200km+ road. I don’t think it’s fully permitted either. Makes our nickel projects look pretty darn exciting in my opinion

Parkboy, I’m not having a go, and I’m not saying you’re not entitled to be frustrated at the SP. All I’m saying is *you’re making it worse, not better*

I see nobody listened to my point that if you want the SP to rise then despairing ad nauseum on a public forum is not the best way to achieve it…

Bill can’t help the fact that there are lab delays affecting EH. And on Hanc0ck he is doing exactly what he should be doing with a view to early production - firming up and expanding the resource while no doubt also working on offtake, logistics etc.

Instead of all this endless hand-wringing, why don’t some of you do some additional research on the projects so you can come to this forum with something positive to say? God knows there’s plenty to be positive about! Wouldn’t that be a better use of time.

I’m telling you, if I was a newbie looking at this share for the first time and I saw you lot miserying on day after day it would put me off. You’re your own worst enemies