Member Info for mathsprof

Sorry folks, I'm feeling very negative today.

I don't regret being sucked into the Valirx story in 2011, because I was also drawn to what I thought were similar stories (more than 4 of them) which have made me a decent return.

However I don't believe the Valirx story any more, and think that only a largish capital investment in the company might bring any eventual returns. How can this now happen with current zero confidence? Can any constructive dialogue with the BOD actually take place? Are the compounds actually worth anything?

Sorry, I've more questions than answers. Perhaps its time to call it a day.

I think I finally understand the 76p RNS - we know no reason. . .

There never was a reason. . . it doesn't bloody work!

That's good. Val was working on their test kits many years ago. Just a few more tweaks for coronavirus and they should be ready in 2025.

It's a gamble at the moment. As soon as coronavirus drops out of the news, this will be worth looking at again...., unless you want to gamble!

The £5m came from the RNS 14Jan, as quoted yesterday by maidit308.

The presentation - I downloaded it in January 2018, if not from the Valirx site, I don't know where. Maidit308 - I expect you are correct. But the point is that I'm more convinced by a company needing £20m for a properly costed full scale P3 trial, than £5m for I don't know what??? And indeed one that might try to start something, even without a full £5m.

The £20m plan never happened, no-one was convinced by the weak P2 data, I assume.

maidit308. Yes Black cat has agreed to raise up to £5m, but this worries me that it won't be enough - or they will attempt to do the next trial on a shoestring and again not have a decent statistical sample. The £20 costing came from a Nov 2017 presentation which has now been removed from Valirx's website. It included almost £16m clinical trial costs, involving 200 patients, and taking a little over 3 years.

" they easily got hold of £5m funding for 401"

I don't know where you got this information from. The RNS stated:
"The LOI provides that, subject to Black Cat raising a minimum amount (details of which are commercially sensitive), ValiSeek will revoke its license for the VAL401 patent portfolio and Tangent would execute a new IP licence with Black Cat and Black Cat would be responsible for funding and executing future clinical development of VAL401."

It has not been confirmed that the finance has been raised, and anyway I thought it was going to cost £20m to do the phase 3 trial, from information previously published.

And as for 201 - we just don't know whether the current trial extension will produce any worthwhile new data.

Sorry Dracula1, there's no extra data for 401. Just 7 patients with a dodgy looking statistical analysis.

It was the 401 patients that all died.
I believe there were 4 patients that continued to the escalated dosing stage of 201, so that would make 10 (max) on last part of 201 trial.

I've found the March 2017 report on their website. Only 8 patients reported on. At least 11 recruited by then so some patients excluded.
What a difference having 50 enrollments would have made!

Interesting update to clinical trials site.
They were still recruiting in July 2019, but would be no reason to update just to say recruitment had stopped. So study is now complete. But notice that only 18 were ever recruited, not the 50 anticipated. Will 18 be enough to get any meaningful efficacy data? It's better than 7(!!!)
(how many were reported on ages ago when we last had any actual data?)
Sorry. folks, I'm not too hopeful for good news, now. Like 401 it may be very hard to convince anyone to take the trials further.

Valju - No and no. But I think (1) is the more likely way of getting some money back if 201 is any good. If its not then it hardly matters what happens to the company.

roses is probably correct - I've just read all through the last RNS and it states:

10. Effects on Options and Other Instruments

The entitlements to Ordinary Shares of holders of securities or instruments convertible into Ordinary Shares (such as share options) are expected to be adjusted to reflect the Capital Reorganisation.

I've been away and come back to a seeming lot of irate posts which I don't quite understand and I can't be bothered to read back further than yesterday.
The situation seems clear to me. The company has to consolidate and ask for further authority to issue shares (and some of the warrants in last fund raise) because the SP was hovering around the nominal value.
I think any other alternative would end up leaving SHs with nothing.
Consolidation is a result of past mismanagement. The company is practically worthless. My original investment of £1833.60 would now be worth £1.92. Amazing!!!
I don't like it but I can't see any point in voting NO.

Sadly, I suspect that the overhang may not have gone. Many trades are buys and sells from traders, which won't clear things.
I wonder whether any warrants have been cashed and then sold off at a small profit?

VAL401 on its own should be worth at least 0.17p a share to Valirx. (According to late 2017 projections from Valiseek.) The big question is - have Valiseek been persuaded to sell it off cheaply because no-one else is interested in coughing up the necessary capital needed. That is my primary worry.
No cash for Valirx here, simply different paper, from a company that may have no intention of going public.

Quite correct ValJu. RNS states GM needed to approve potential issue of a balance of warrants.

My guess is that they will throw in a consolidation at the same time.

I'm afraid the inevitable happened today. I reckon this cash will last 6-8 weeks. I bet they are hoping to have some sort of decent results before then. The amounts raised get smaller and smaller each time.

What idiots we were to pour cold water on the EHGO arrangements. At least there would have been finance for 2 years. Would SP have reached 0.1p by now? No way of telling. I can now see the BOD's reasons for the dreadful EHGO finance.

Don't think so. 4m sold around 8.18, then 10m around 8.24.
Out of hands of mms, except their defensive action in reaction to sells.

Looks very worrying to me. All the pointers are wrong for buying at the moment. Why issue last week's RNS with no real positive news, unless there is no proper news to release before the next begging bowl?

Keep your money until after the next placing. . . . .

Oh dear. In the old days I would have been quite pleased with this RNS. But today I find myself treating it with intense cynicism. Why issue an RNS with no real factual information unless the coffers are empty again?
Very sad. Yes, me and the situation.

A bit strange though - after hours trading brought price back over $0.42
Something's afoot