Member Info for mathsprof

Can't see news on this site yet - but AIDA cruises have just announced sailings for August in a rather limited way. But its a start.

I've noticed this too. Have a look at the CCL vs CUK comparison graph, eg on Yahoo Finance, over the last month. Since they're both priced in dollars there's no exchange rate involved. The discount of CUK is now nearly 40%, compared with around 15/20% a month ago. The only thing I can think of is the exit from the FTSE and managers dumping stock. A discount of 40% makes no sense at all, and I suspect it will gradually return to historical levels in due course, which would add over £1 to the uk CCL price.

In short, no. I bought into VAL after the February 2011 placing at 0.6p - now equivalent to £93.75
The SP has slid ever since with a few excited high points on the way which have allowed some to make a good profit if they sold at the right time.
Its been a story of placing after placing at diminishing intervals of time, punctuated with poor "investment partners".
Don't judge the new management by the failings of the past. Except - how much truth is there in the actual value of the compounds? How much of teh previous news was only spin?

So what's going on? Lots of early trades and then a very few for an hour and a half. Now a gap up to 0.57p mid. Look out for a large or very large buy coming through at 11.20 or so. MMs were obviously trying to scrape together some sells by lowering the SP and not offering stock at the advertised ask.
Feeling a bit more positive today.

Sorry, correction. I've just read that shares in issue was 684m, so adjusted calcs are: 367/1051 = 0.35
So only 35% dilution - ie £40 to £26.

CorunnaB - You've got to do some sums from the various moneys raised. There's the new shares (RNS 7 Apr) (just under 72m @ $8) plus the convertible bonds 2023 (estimated 295m new shares to be issued in 2023). I think there were 600m shares before, so new shares/ total shares = 367/967 = 0.38, ie around 40% dilution. It hasn't all happened yet, but when dividends are hopefully paid again in full by 2024, there will be the dilution of dividend by around 40%. The dividend may be further reduced because of teh paying off of the new senior debt, too.

So I reckon £24 is absolute tops for the next few years.

Remember that there is a 40% dilution to factor in to the eventual recovery price, with all the new shares and conversions to account for. So £40 then means £24 now for the same amount of dividend (eventually). But there may be a gap in dividend payments for a more than several quarters, so don't expect much more than £20 by the end of this year. Indeed, this figure is too high for me, I'll be more than happy to see £15 by the year end.
However I won't be surprisd to se £9 tested in the near future.

Tradegurus - has there been another announcement today about cancellations?

How did this reach £17.75 this morning? Crazy.
£14.50 still overpriced, ni my opiniom.

The difference between the two dates is that the 2019 one is before the June placing (at 0.4p) and the 2020 is after. Actually the SP as judged by the placing price is 50% higher than last year. I could cope with the next placing being at 0.9p next year, although of course a deal and a proper re-rating would be much preferable (so no placing would be needed next year).

No advantage of one over the other if you discount the dividend. Include the didvidend (and shareholder benefits) and the UK is definitely my choice.

The two SPs are very closely linked in the very short term, and may fluctuate a little mid-term, and then there's the value of the pound which fluctuates too.

The issues you need to consider are:
Exchange rate variations. If pound loses 10%, say, so does the US SP relative to the UK and vice versa.
Dividend. When the dividend returns, since both shares pay the same dividend, there can be no long term appreciation of UK or US share relative to the other.
The premium of the US share over the UK share does vary over the short term between 10% and 20%. Recently it has been around 18%. I can't see it getting much higher - my guess is that the lack of dividend may be casing a shrt term increase in this premium increase.
Ther UK shares are better long term value if you are expecting a healthy dividend in the future - the yield is higher due to the US SP premium.

The £1930m refers to the Instrument market cap - which I believe is the value of the London shares. The majority of shares are US listed and the total market cap would then incude these.

FTSE is overshadowed by the US stock. UK price is heavily linked to US price, can't see the UK discount widening much beyond present 15%.

I had the same question for a long time too.

The US shares include a special voting share (with no dividend) which makes them 10%-20% more expensive. It dates back to the takeover of P&O/Cunard by Carnival years ago.

Life may be getting back to nearer normal, but cruises involve the ship with crowded facilities like theatres, and trips on coaches etc when in port. I think some will still be reluctant to cruise in the near future, how full does a ship have to be to be profitable? We are in two minds about our early October cruise to the Med, but I'm not cancelling yet!

I feel £11 is a fair price for the present, on the assumption that the summer/european season will be mostly wiped out. If cruises don't start in earnest by mid-October, then £11 is far too generous. But you may think you will be able to fly to Malta in August or September for a Med cruise, or sail from Southampton to Norway etc. Then perhaps £11 is a bit too low.
And then what about the main US brands? Too much uncertainty to make it a buy at this price.

HSBC target £12.80 (buy). See today's share news.

How interesting you mention Luke Johnson is chair of ICR. I wasn't aware of that. I think he's the most financially sucessful of my former students!

Also - I think I saw an $11 price tag to the NCLH shares. Perhaps this puts a floor all 3 companies for teh time being. CCL did bounce nicely off the $8 offer price.