Member Info for mathsprof

Thank you so much Matt.
I have been trying for months to find out why the prices don't directly match up. A simple explanation yet complex arrangement - explaining why the dividends are identical - the premium effectively gives the US shareholders extra votes. It also explains why the ADRs are still trading in the US in spite of the fact there is common stock, and why the 2 sets of shares will always trade indepentently of each other.

I believe you're right. Each ADR is equivalent to a London share. So the ADR price pretty much mirrors the UK price.
The paradox is that each London share and each US share must also be equivalent. The dividend, for example, is the same paid in dollars or sterling at the appropriate conversion rate. But the price in dollars of the ADRs and US ords is clearly different!

There's no way to hedge between the two sets of shares because they're not interchangeable. So the premium is a bit like the premium/discount on Investment trusts, and varies eery day. Supply and Demand in the two markets. Who is "right"? UK or US? The US probably more optimistic about getting back to cruising?

It's a mystery I haven't been able to work out. Currently well over 10% premium in the US. Usually around the 10% mark.
£9.20 is approx $11.40 at today's exchange rate. Plus 10% is $12.54, but it's around $13.30!! Crazy. A 17% premium.

Th epricing at $11 should have a seyttling influence on the whole sector. Of the big 3 on NYSE I think NCLH is in the weakest position financially with proportionally the biggest debt. RCL looks healthiest, but is probably already refected in their SP.
Anyway, I don't expect CCL here to dip much below the current £9.20 or $13 in the US in the near future. My immediate target remains at £11.

I think wse'd had this discussion before about the warrants. I remember digging out this quote form the original RNS:
"The entitlements to Ordinary Shares of holders of securities or instruments convertible into Ordinary Shares (such as share options) are expected to be adjusted to reflect the Capital Reorganisation."
I raised the question (yesterday?) about whether the new 12.5p warrants were converted at the end of last week. I wouldn't be surprised if we heard in the next day or two that £220k of warrants have been issued @12.5p.

It's what I call a "1706" trade, usually reported on AIM companies at or around 1706, and always at the midpoint of the closing spread. SAR also has one today. I believe its like a UT, neither a buy or a sell - a means of MMs squaring up with each other.
Interestingly enough on SAR yesterday there was a UT as well yesterday (quite rare for AIM), and a 1706 trade came through at the UT price .

So they've corrected the error I poted about earlier. And we now have to approve the pre-emption clause that was rejected before!

Has anyone else spotted the error in the RNS? 18.069m shares raises £1.084m not £1.1745m

Cashing in warrants can put a damper on price rises. As has forward selling...

The question is, has ETX capital cashed in their 12.5p warrants yet? to the tune of £220k. Nice litle extra in the pot for VAL if they have. Then ther next lot of warrants to look out for is at 21.25p, I think.

see for example 16 April fdor another 1706 trade

The 1706 trade was a "1706 trade" of the type I've commented about previously. Always around the same time, always at midprice. Neither buy nor sell - I believe it is MMs squaring up at the end of the day.

can sell at 1p again!!

Interesting article, Violindog. I had got my calculator out last week and suspected the main conclusions myself.

What interests me is that the volume is still massive. Almost 40m in 3 hours - could be up to 100m again today. If this turns then it will catch folk out and be back to 0.7p in no time. If it doesn't it will retrace further. So place your bets, please. 0.4p or 0.7p close today?

Lets get the facts right. At 1425 yesterday the SP was 0.87p
So the trade is very very probably a sell.
However it was yesterday. All water under the bridge. Its tomorrow that's now important.

Hello borgie. I used to keep a list of all warrants, but gave up a year ago since the likelihood of them being exercised was remote! The last warrants to be issued were at £0.001 in January, I think. 220m of them, which would raise £220k if cashed. The strike price is now 12.5p.
The ones you refer to at £0.004 would now have a strike price of 50p and so would raise £3m. But they must be from some while back?? I don't remember them.

My guess for the end of year SP is around £11-12, and then it might reach £20-22 by end of 2023, all being well. A former strong attraction of this share was the dividend - I can't see much of a dividend being paid until ater the convertibles' interest is paid off. I think £9 is a fair price for now, perhaps a bit generous, but discouraging news could still easily push it back to £6.

1200 one was a buy, I believe. Don't be fooled by late reported trades. Why do you think the price rose shortly afterwards?