Member Info for mathsprof

Read the RNS, and follow the link for the results on one page:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/VAL/valiseek-clinical-update-val401-cz7yuaik319u7vi.html

401 results were published in 2018.

Since then valirx have been trying to fund PIII but have no real takers. It was estimated in Nov 2017 that around £20m might be needed for PIII trial. As you know BlackCat is currently trying to raise the funds.

We had much discussion on the results 2.5 years ago, and some (including me) felt that the statistcal basis and methods used were a bit inconclusive, especially since it was based on a sample of 7 patients.

I think that is why BlackCat has not yet found enough backers to proceed.

The initial reporting of the trade contained some error. Later on, it is corrected by deleting the first trade, and re-reporting it, hence the negative trade.

SatuV-
The problem was never really with the science, research or medical side of things.
The problem lay in the inability in being able to finance the work properly. Effectively you ended up stealing from your investors to carry on (by repeated massive dilutions and consolidations).
It got worse and worse over the years. Many of us were supportive years ago.
It's not surprising that you are the butt of jokes and rudeness. A lot of investors are still angry with you.

The 3 Sept date only applies to the older (12.5p) warrants. There are still 1.51m of these left.

We can only guess on the proportion of holders that will want to hold their warrants/new shares for greater gains, so the size of the overhang will remain an unknown for some time.
Clearly some are happy for a few pence profit on shares that are a bonus, but the more the SP rises the more risk there is in holding "risk-free" warrants. The risk comes from losing the potential gains on cashing in (should results be disappointing . . . )

MCAP £27m since I have been following in 2011.

Agreed, but not a miracle - hard work by certain shareholders (to whom I'm very grateful) to force the changes.

oops 13.25p - mind you not long ago the sp was 0.1325p pre-consolidation

ob- in short - no chance.
My original investment here of 180k shares cost £1116. They are now worth £1.53 (ie 11.52 shares @ 0.1325p). I need a share price of £96.86 to break even.
Go back another 5 years, and I believe there was further erosion of the SP.
The only way I have kept my head above water is by buying more and trading from time to time. I 've even bought some more @ 13p a couple of days ago to reduce my average below 40p

I agree with much of what you are saying.

But the problem is that without any lockdown the covid deaths could have been more than 10 times greater in many countries. So its hardly fair to compare the deaths with flu.

Perhaps by thjis time next year we will have a balanced view of what are sensible precautions, and what activities should be shunned in their pre-covid form.

Its to do with the voting rights attached to the US shares (dating back to Carnival's purchase of P&O and Cunard). There is always a premium, and I've seen it vary between 10% and 25%.

2nd largest volume since consolidation. $2m traded. I expect news on 737 very soon.

Sorry Mithun, it says nothing.
However good or bad the results are they will need to publish them properly. Poor results can contain info that will persuade someone to continue the research rather than bin everything.

JennyT
The original plan was to recruit 50, a sensible size. Then by February they reported there were 18 actual patients. Subsequestly 6 have disappeared. There are some statistical methods that can make a good case for significant effects in smaller samples.
Clearly 18 would have been more compelling, and 50 ideal. If we have 12 patients progressing all through the dose escalating plan (perhaps replacing some of the earlier ones who dropped out??) there could be some good statistical evidence for psa reduction with incations on dose size effect.
Time will tell.

Don't have to assume news is good.
Say I estimate p(good news)=0.25, and SP rises to 50p from 16p. Gain= 34p
So p(indifferent news)=0.75, and SP falls back to 8p. Loss=8p
Its worth a punt, since the expected gain = 34*0.25 - 8*.75 = 2.5p
You can tweak the figures to suit your estimate of success, but my net conclusion is that the gains are likely to outweigh the losses, which is why I can remain invested and pessimistic of good results.

Sorry, I'm being unduly pessimistic. Its partly a reaction to those posters who see no downside and expect a very high Mcap by the end of next month.
It would be surprising (and excellent news) if there were no deaths in the 4 years of the trial.
The cynic in me says that the previous management might have been clutching at straws, hoping that extending the trial would give more conclusive results, so that their gravy train could continue.
I have every hope I'll get my 41p back eventually, and with decent 201 results this should be possible. But I would be surprised to see a sustainable SP of over 50p in the near future.

Why not dose at 16mg?
1/ You've run out of money.
2/ 8mg shows no improvement on 4mg dose, so no point in going to 16mg.
3/ 8mg has side effects. We have been told this is not the case. Presumably MTD not reached.
4/ Patients no longer in study.
Any really positive reason to stop at 8mg, bearing in mind that results for 4mg were good enough for an extension, but not good enough to shout from the rooftops for all to clamour for a piece of the action?

If you're new here its worth having a look at the whole sorry history of the Val201 trial:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/history/NCT02280317?A=7&B=12&C=merged#StudyPageTop
Enrollment was supposed to be 50 initially, reported in February as 18 actual, now we're back to the 12 of the report from 2018 RNS. Extension was supposed to dose up to 16mg, now we hear it only went up to 8mg. Why???
Has anything new been achieved in the last 2 years of trial extension? If not don't expect very much from the published data.

What is needed is a critical appraisal of MrNation's factual posts, as well as the posts themselves.

There are some caveats to the facts, eg:

401. Results were out almost 3 years ago, on a dataset of 7 patients. Valiseek have been trying to find partners and money for several years, and promises so far have come to nothing.

201. Trial extended 2 years ago without publishing intermediate results. Have enough patients been recruited now? Does anyone expect good or indifferent or poor data? How can we assess the likelihood of getting results that will lead to the next stage? I'm pessimistic, based on the reluctance of the previous managemnet to publish any data, but I realise that many are much more optimistic.

Mcap. What would you actually expect the mcap to be of a company at this stage of development? Have the past woes been banished? Here I'm much more positive. Even at this stage, £15-20m is not unreasonable.

What will the short term effect of warrants being cashed in be? Should I wait to buy when the price returns to 13p next week?, or will we never see 13p again?

Conclusion. Worth a punt under 20p. Expect more volatility.

No vaccine for flu?? Rubbish. But yes, its not a coronavirus.
I bet there has been little incentive to created a vaccine for a common cold. More lucrative to sell "cures" with paracetamol plus colour and flavour.