Member Info for mathsprof

This is what I posted on 28 May:

My theory is that the sells in million multiples, always reported in pairs with a T trade, are EHGO offloading stock. I wonder whether the size of the trades are a function of the buys the day before, and actually the MMs are selling off their stock the day before each new sell appears. This ensures there is an orderly market, and they are not left with millions of shares they cannot sell on.
The trading patterns are so predictable - two large sells in the morning, followed by two smaller ones in the afternoon. Why does anyone buy in the current circumstances, when there is a high probability that the SP will be a bit lower tomorrow. And EHGO still have well over 20m to sell.

I haven't been counting this time, and I am not sure my original theory about the size of the trades was correct. T-trades seem to be a way of the MMs confusing the punters like us as to what is happening.

I posted the reason foe the 2 x trades last month. I'll look for it and repost.

I'm not really sure what your problem is. Note 26 shows the 2 f/t directors' pension payments from Valirx. The fees in note 22 are different, in that they are fees charged for work done by the p/t directors.
What was the query about notes 8, 12, 16?
Directors' fees seem above board and to be expected.

SP not holding - now 0.1843p to buy. Anyone tempted?

Roses. Absolutely right. But why does this stop them forward selling? Imagine what will happen if the resolutions 5 and 6 are not passed.
No shares for them, no placings, no cash alternative to pay them. Would the SP drop further? or be suspended?
No real risk for EHGO I would think.

Do remember that EHGO might be forward selling. The selling pattern is identical to when they were selling off their tranche 1.
The MMs are not holding stock in any quantity. That's why the sells are coming in in relatively small blocks.

It's in EHGO's interest to get the SP as low as possible before their new shares are priced. What a **** arrangement.

Disaster is likely to strike tomorrow.

As soon as the AGM authorises new shares, EHGO is likely to accelerate their selling to decrease the SP ready for their allotment of free shares. At present SP of 0.18p they get 118m. This can easily increase towards 200m as the SP heads for 0.1p. All EHGO will be interested in is getting around £150k by selling whatever they get. Eg, if they get 118m and sell at an average of 0.13p, that will do nicely.

Sell now while you have a chance. By all means buy back when the EHGO shares have been issued and/or traded on. But I suspect the price will be a lot lower first.

and I can sell at 0.4038p. Strange. Wont last for long!

Here's my wild conjecture about the large trades etc.
Monecor buy 75m in the placing (they're a broker) mostly on behalf of EHGO who were expecting to get another 71m in tranche 2. EHGO had already forward sold these - this would explain all the double trades of the past weeks when EHGO were selling. So EHGO has gone short and agree to pay 0.25p for 72m shares - these were reported yesterday as a t-trade pair of 12m+ and 59m+. EHGO, Monecor both make a good profit.

I suspect the triple reporting of the 59m will be corrected to show it's a single 59m trade and the other two should have been a positive and negative pair.
End of detective work (guessing). Have a good evening all.

I finally sold out in disgust after the last company RNS, having bought back in the day before - I should have known better. I probably should stop posting here, and stop following the sad saga.

Roses, I think you're mistaken. The tr1 of 26 April was issued before the dilution of 1 May.
In addition the recent tr1 shows a holding of 100k before he adds 72m. So I believe he sold almost all his holding immediately after the EHGO announcement.

1 NS has reported that he purchased 72m (in the placing, presumably).
2 Almost all the reds are buys. A few small sells under .215p initially, plus the 5m @ 0.215p. Net buys around 6m.

My guess is that the buys are covering some of the placement shares, and the stock was sold in 10m chunks a few days ago, or is yet to be reported.
The overhang may well clear a lot sooner than we thought a few days ago.

Came across a book recently - "Little Unexpectations - the story of Valirx."

I hadn't seen the AGM notice when I suggested the doubling figure of 902m headroom. I presume they will stick to 752m.

The reason it says £752k is that this is the nominal value (@0.1p a share) of 752m. No more, no less.

We used to do stats experiments with lots of students and coins. . . . to553rs the lot of them!

When we lived near Windsor, the Green Line coaches would run up to 2 hours late! Then several would come at once, with some just marked "Private" to let the passengers off and then run back empty on the motorway to central London to try to catch up time.So it will be 3 buses, yes, but will they be marked "Private"?

That's my assumption too. And its now 0.2245p to buy.

The 10m trades are restatement/correction from last week. Now 0.2255p to buy large quantities (eg 3m).

Tells me the price may still drop a little this week.

A bonus for them raising now is that the new mandate will give headroom of extra 902m shares, I expect.

year1970, I quite agree. I should have called this thread - "EHGO a slightly less horrific deal".

The point I was making was that it was not in Valirx's interest to cancel the first deal, once it had been made. The damage was done, and I agree it is now worse, but I think their hand was forced by EHGO.

The 213m shares are the 3 tranches that would have been issued to EHGO - caveatemptor - read back a few RNSs.