Member Info for mathsprof

Technically not, but the effects are the same with the "make whole" provision.

And then just think of the effect of trying to dump 213m shares on the market at a rate of 10-20m a week for the next 10-20 weeks.

Did someone want evidence of a death spiral?
Now we have it. It doesn't matter to EHGO what price they sell at, as long as the SP on the 21st June is lower, they are laughing all the way to the bank.
Yes, I'm assuming EHGO are the sellers, and I agre some of the larger trades are likely to be buys.

So final results in next few days, and AGM w/c 17 June would fit the bill.
AGM was 8 May last year.

ValJu
I think we must have the AGM before June 21 in order to agree to issuing the convertible loan. However that doesn't mean we'll get any more news on the progress of talks or drugs. We might do, but I expect VAL have no control over when news will break on talks, and I think they've told us all about the drugs progress for the time being.

Hello Dracula1
Some people will buy anything if the price is low enough. And some are judging that around 0.4p is a good gamble - I'm happy with that. But I'm wary of buying back until when and if I know more facts about the current funding arrangements - how 21 June pans out and whether the SP appears stable.
I fear another drop to 0.3p or less in the next month, and don't see any immediate upside.
Doesn't mean I don't think a good rise is not on the cards in Q3 or4, but from what base? There are still some positives to come, and money to be made this year.

I think it is important to remind ourselves what the RNS said about funding:

The funds from the subscription and initial monies from the convertible facility, will be used to conclude the current VAL201 trial and for general working capital purposes. The funds will also be used in the further development of VAL301, the completion of its pre-clinical studies and in the progression of the compound towards a Clinical Trial Application (CTA). Furthermore, should technology acquisition opportunities arise, ValiRx will apply funds to the strengthening of its pipeline.

It says nothing about further funding for 201, and the details for funding for 101 and 401 has not yet been announced, other than in saying LOIs are in place. We don't know the terms of proposed JVs etc.

now now, I mean now no!

After studying the trades of the last 3 days, I have come to the conclusion that the CF stock has by now all been sold by the MMs. Taking out the CF sale and the 6m buy, there have been around 14.5m other shares traded. I reckon there were around 90% buys, until about 1340 today, which would account for over 11m net buys. Add the 6m back in and the implication is that the overhang probably finished a bit earlier, the price rising well just before lunch.

So if there's now now overhang, I'm looking for more rises next week, even without the next RNS.

Pity you've had to sell on the majority if these. Why not keep the last couple of million.

You really can't tell. I was quoted a higher price to sell than to buy a moment ago!!!

Time will tell.

But they didn't delay the big sell by very long, so perhaps if here are some, we'll see the big buys tomorrow.

panda1 - I can't see how the MMs could possibly have shifted 16.3m shares before the trade was timed at 13.34.

Not even in the last 2 months. I think they were still struggling to sell the remains of the first 5m. The only way to shift this quantity of stock was to keep reducing the SP, as they did this afternoon, and then they have miserably failed so far - total other trades today being around a mere 6m.

So the question for me is, how much more will the SP need to be reduced to clear the the remainder of at east 10m?

For the record:
Today's sell is for the exact number reported on their last holdings RNS.

Hello Uncanny.
I'm afraid I sold 1.39m last month at a loss of around £7k, having previously made a lot more when I sold much of my holding at just over 7p at the flurry of 2017/2018. I felt the SP of 7p was unrealistic at the time, and bought back in quite a bit lower.
In the past 8 years in have been invested for 95% of the time, and have funds in the pot to reinvest. However the current financing arrangement with EHGO, because it seems to have all the bad points of the previous one with Bracknor, makes me very wary to re-invest before June 21. Then there might be a window of opportunity after that, if the credit is taken up, and the SP has steadied around its current level. Val could come good with decent 201 results.
I'm almost tempted to say **** that lot at Val, and never think of investing again. But I haven't got to that point yet.

Agreed - but it's easy to pay for shares that have gone up in price, since they can be sold straight away! The warrants are effectively a free ride, giving the financier the freedom to sell the original shares, and make a bonus killing anyway if there is a good price rise.
Having sold the subscription/conversion shares there's cash available for the next "investment".

YA, Bracknor etc all still have plenty of warrants, but since the SP has dropped since, they will probably never be exercised now.

Uncanny -
Do we have any evidence that EHGO actually keep their shares, rather than sell into the market at the earliest opportunity?

Its a fail-safe strategy (to sell the shares), because they will reap the rewards of a successful company/rising SP with the warrants they are issued.

and of course, if the SP is over 0.6p by 21 June, then the break even SP is the 0.4695p already quoted by Freddie.

Sadly, I'm afraid our "new investor" will sell enough to prevent the SP returning to 0.6p before then. 213m is a lot of shares to churn through. EGHO can't really lose the first stage of the game.

Roses 1646.
Roses I think you've muddled the two lots of tranches. The make whole amount refers to the first convertible funds not the first tranche of shares (issued on the first).
So we won't owe them the £350k until the first drawdown, but I agree it effectively reduces the value of the 213m shares that will have by then been issued to £650k. So I agree that the break even price is currently around 0.305p.

Thanks, Freddie, I'd meant to listen to that yesterday. It's very interesting that the IP of a bankrupt company is sold off for peanuts in the fire sale. Good job VAL had balked at paying a lot more last year.

So the main reason for FIT bio's demise was a government loan. However the last resort funding of Bracknor and ABO can only enable to help a healthy company survive.

Either ABO/EHGO will make a good profit at the expense of the LTHs, or we'll all loose everything! I feel that the odds are currently stacked against us, and am not on the least bit surprised at a 0.4p SP.

I have been trawling through the recent history of FIT bio to see if I could find the reason for their demise.

here are some facts:
Terminated funding agreement with Bracknor late 2017 to take up Alpha Blue funding instead.
31 Dec 17 - 225m shares in issue.
30 June 18 - 3109m shares in issue,
23 Jan 19 - 3715m shares in issue,
May conversion price 0.0005e
Aug/Oct conversion price 0.0004e
Dec conversion price 0.0003e
Jan 19 conversion price 0.0001e
Feb - filed for bankrupcy

Alpha Blue stopped paying for new tranches after August 18. I can't find the original agreement, but I suppose they had paid the minimum number under the contract, and then felt the business was too risky?

Difficult to find SP info, but in Feb 17 Bracknor were issued shares at 0.082705e. And you thought VAL's SP slide was bad!

Conclusion:
I think we will come to different conclusions as to reasons and blame. There are some similarities to VAL though.

What will need to happen at VAL to prevent the same outcome? I guess part of Alpha Blue's model is that they will invest in some companies that come good and give them big rewards, some that struggle on for 2 years and give them moderate profit, and some that go under, possibly leaving them with a big loss. Which will VAL be? It depends on getting good proper, non-woolly clinical results.

Who's still up for the gamble?