Member Info for ManxKippers

A forward price projection forecasts Crude to drop to US$49 per barrel by as early as March/ April 2026.

Not brilliant and may play a part in the terms of the deal for a farmout.

Just to be aware.

This is where the spread and strategy to include renewables makes MATD a much more solid company to be invested in IMO!

I have a happy sense that MATD's lot is going to come good for us and very soon.

The mostly positive RNS' should start to flow nicely and regularly starting imminently.

Nice to see some rockets 🚀 🚀 🚀 appearing but sadly there are still some spacemen who are so busy treading their own excrement that they are missing the strong and solid signs for proper lift off.

We will see who's right and who's wrong quite soon now, IMO!

The markets will return after the August holidays are over and done with. News will drop from MATD. Hopefully the sp will start on it's journey north on September never to return to these absurdly low levels.

Yes, Lockie.

We can expect a lot of RNS' in the next three or four months, roughly as follows but maybe not in this exact order.

1. RNS for H2 reworking with hopefully positive results. Within the next 2 weeks?

2. RNS for resolution of the tax situation with PC paying the withheld 30% amount. Anytime but could be weeks or a month or two.

3. Gazelle reworking and results by the end of September, perhaps.

4. Hopefully a farmout agreement after the findings of H2 and perhaps Gazelle. Hopefully by end of September but it could be October.

5. Gobi confirmation after reworking, one way or the other, hopefully by the middle of October.

6. Throw in a Sunsteppe positive RNS update at sometime for good measure too, with signed projects, schedules and funding.

All this within the next 3 to 4 months.

We will see.....

Happily cleared out of ORCP and piled more into MATD a week or so ago.

I pity those who had their head turned, like I did, by some very strong pumping, but who didn't take the small profit and run.

MATD news flows and prospects feel a lot more.wxciting after the last Q&A presentation.

Words of caution on MATD.

1. Huge crude oil surplus incoming projected in 2026. Crude price going down. Etc etc.

2. China invading Taiwan and all stocks going on hold, especially in that far eastern region. That could knock us for six for a bit.

Apart from those risks, this seems really l good to me.

Stockmaiden. I am sorry the raise came just now and the losses for many who had their head turned have happened like this.

It is a cruel world...

I think ORCP is an exciting prospect, but as stated before, this depends on the battle between raising funds with small raises such as this and the last one only 3 or 4 months ago, versus the RNS about the coal or gold or copper prospects being green lighted with sale or production happening.

Glad I sold out of ORCP and happy to have gone heavily into MATD, which despite your resistance to that company, seems to have a more immediate prospect of good news flows coming very soon.

Well that was a whiz bang, whollop of a run.

Firmly landed back at 0.018p then.

Until solid news is announced, this is where it will stay, or go even lower with another raise due...! IMO.

Agreed Margaritas.

Google stated independent share price forecast is 5.95p per share within the next year. I think this is a little conservative!

We will see.......

Well said, Lucky rambo.

I took a slight profit from orcp last week and bought more MATD.

ORCP could come good at any time, but revenue generation will take time.

MATD would get immediate cash from a farmout agreement and they can operate within current revenue streams.

The pointer is heavily in MATD'S direction, but as StockMaiden sees, ORCP does have a huge payload potential, but I don't think it will be sometime soon and dilutions of the share seems a repetitive occurance with an MD that relishes her status on boards yet fails to buy shares in the company she runs.

It was not a difficult decision to jump ship and back MATD for me at this stage of MATD'S development.

No they have not been taken at 4.8p per share. They were a three year option split into three equal tranches. Year 1 and year 2 have not been taken up at all due to the share price being lower . However, year three becomes available in May 2026, from memory. This last third of the options may well be taken up of, as expected, the sp is above that price by then. Again from a distant memory, was it circa 35,000,000 shares per year, meaning 70 million options have passed and 35 million may be taken up. I THINK!!!!

I believe so.

MATD would ideally seek to recover all prospecting and licence fees up front within the deal. So $60 million or so as a cash payment. However, the Farmee would recover 50% of this back over time as the agreement with the MG is that the licence with royalty clauses enables MATD to not pay the royalties due until after that $60 million has been recovered from sales revenues. So the Farmee would get say 50% of the sales revenues including 50% of the withholding of the prospecting costs. So the net result is they would recover $30 million of the $60 million paid to MATD, over time. MATD, would hopefully get $60 million up front from the Farmee and retain 50% of the higher price for the oil sold by avoiding the payment of the royalties to the MG, hence a further $30 million.

This kind of thing. But this will be diwn to the finished deal agreed to.

The MATD board must consider the offers and evaluate the best potential farmee for the company.

This will include the size of the cash offer, the % of the split of the revenues, the size and capability of the proposed farmee including their financial strength. Remember two years ago MB's statement that there is now the kit to drill through the winter, for example....!!

I think this will be signed up this year in order for the chosen Farmee to organise their schedules and arrange for the right kit to get into place for an aggressive attack starting in 2026.

No shares in MATD the company.

I believe they pay a degree of or all of the cash upfront, which could be up to the full cost by MATD for the site which is €60 million for Heron, and they cover all costs in the development and setting up of the Wells including the drilling of those new wells, for the rights to up to 50% of the earning revenues after royalties and cost of sales of the prospect in question.

No shares in MATD. MATD should get a few 10's of millions in cash and a plan to roll out very rapidly starting in 2026.

That is how I understand a farm-out works.

Not much luck needed here IMO.

No debt. Operational overhead costs covered by income generation already. Farmout terms being given out to interested party with other parties in discussion. Sunsteppe investment covered to the necessary levels with a land grab for future development being actively pursued for the large interest for renewable. Well results look a reasonably safe risk H2 at least. Heron field felt to be worth £200 million or 11p per share if sold. Company wanting to keep income streams and drive revenues for dividend returns. This is everything I want as long as most of this is delivered.

By Oct 1st, this will be a hugely different company. In at the very very sub-basement level.

My last top up here. Added a further 4,000,000 this morning.

Very happy and comfortable with over 21 million holding. A great share to hold.

I agree SM with your comment and sentiment.

The burning question is just how close are we to that factual, believable and point of no return RNS that takes the SP to a rerated level?

Soon I hope. We will see...

The low functioning level of posts here are quite amazing.

Children are better behaved than this!

I never quite know whether it is Math or Maths.

Which part don't you like the look of, Jimi?

Yup!

When you run the numbers it becomes something huge and amazing.

Can they deliver as confidently and competently as MB believes they can? That's the question here!

Having digested the points of yesterday and tried to make sense of the math, as follows:

MB said that they want a farmout and that the refinery needs 40,000,000 barrels by 2028/9 when it goes fully operational. Heron wouldn't be able to supply 10,000,000 barrels hence Gobi and Gazelle needing to to be delivering, or one of them at least, too. He wants to farmout block VII too and drive as much volume as possible and he wants to "shamelessly" supply as much of the 40,000,000 requirements as possible.

Farmouts give away 50% of the margin, on a standard and minimal deal at only 50/50 for MATD. Therefore MATD would keep $20 per barrel margin at least with oil at $70 per barrel.

At 10,000,000 barrels, revenue would be $200 million per annum. Double for a potential 20,000,000 supplied to the refinery. And he wants to pump more and do export onto of the refinery needs.

Add on Sunsteppe and income generated could be well over $500 million per annum. Company value at least £1 per share and possibly double that. Dividends certainly and easily 10p per share by 2030!

I am happy with that, IF that all goes to plan!