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Zaza stated 4 to 6 weeks to fill a trainload, Therefore I will assume three train loads by 10th September 2018 (one for auction on 10th, one for auction on the 1st October and one from June seen in the Titter photos).That gives a total of 154 days from the start of T45 on the 8th April. Assuming 30,000bbls for each train load of light oil = 90,000bbls.
I have read somewhere 130bbls/d for the zone 9 wells x 154 days = 20,020bbls.
I will assume that T39 flows at 250bbls/d as the gas was increasing (Zaza podcast) x 68 days (from 4th July) = 17,000bbls.
Therefore, 90,000bbls - (20,020 + 17,000)bbls = 52,980bbls to come from T45 and Dino-2.
If T45 and Dino-2 flow without decline = 270bbls/d + 315bbls/d = 585bbls/d x 114 days = 66,690bbls.
Then T45 flowing without decline for the remaining 40 days (Dino-2 starte testing on 18th May) = 270bbls/d x 40 days = 10,800bbls.
The total for T45 and Dino-2 without decline is 66,690bbls + 10,800bbls = 77,490bbls.
If we deduct the 52,980bbls expected = 24,510bbls, which is 31.63% less than the flow rates without decline.
Therefore, deducting 31.63% of the flow rates gives average flow rates over the 154 days of 215bbls/d for Dino-2 and 185bbls/d for T45. As most of the decline will be near the start, I am going to estimate final flows of 200bbls/d for Dino-2 and 170bbls/d, for T45.
If my assumptions are correct, then FRR would have oil revenue around mid August, 25th October and 14th November for each trainload.
30,000bbls x $75/bbl = $2.25m for each trainload.
T45 + Dino-2 + T39 + Zone 9's = (170 + 200 + 250 + 130)bbls/d = 750bbls/d.
Add Niko at the same rate for zone 19 as T39 = 1000bbls/d by the end of the year if Niko is still drilled.

regdik - Well it doesn't really matter which takes place, a JV/farmout or a sale of Block 12. What matters is that it looks like FRR is having a mega deal with two super majors, probably being completed before the end of the year. Good luck and keep posting, as I find your posts very informative.

regdik - The two super majors think we have more hydrocarbons. Therefore, more than 18kMMbbls oil and 202TCF gas. Why would they want anything other than a total buyout. A few extra billion dollars at this stage gets them hundreds of billions when developed. IMHO the price I calculated of $11bn still stands, but as they're in competition, maybe in a 55/45 split between the two majors. FRR would get enough to make ZM and SN very rich, and then they go for round two with Moldova, with enough money to be in total control.

Thanks for asking about the production licence to clarify the situation.

Thanks Laks. All I need is for Cardiff to beat Spurs (unlikely). If your team beats Man City it's a bonus, as they're the one team I dislike, apart from local derby teams, Swansea and Bristol City. (I do support Liverpool when they're playing in Europe, and other British teams, even Swansea, but not Man City). It's not their players or the big money backers, but their obnoxious supporters. I haven't met one I liked, which is strange as most of the Man Utd supporters are fine, and the supporters of other teams I've met have been mainly good, with some bad.

tattiepicker - The EWT choke size might also be restricted while the gas is still being flared.

I agree tattiepicker and I have copied my post from the 19th July, with a link about chokes :-
Mole - I think that the 'production could be SIGNIFICANTLY higher'is probably due to the choke size of 8/64, as the pipe is only open for an eighth, which implies that it could flow at 8 x 529bpd = 4232bpd. However, the increased choke size does not give a linear increase in flow, as there are other factors. Furthermore, because of the pressure differences between the bottom of the hole and the surface, damage can occur if they get the choke size wrong. I think they will have a better understanding after the EWT as to the best choke size, and I'm sure they wouldn't want to take any unnecessary risks. If there is anyone on here with a better understanding of the physics, they could explain the other factors that link flow rates and choke size.
http://gekengineering.com/Downloads/Free_Downloads/Choke.pdf

Posted by Coggy :-
The most interesting comment was think of the largest oil and gas field in Russia. Then he smiled, intimating that we are bigger!

Richard1032's post :-
I think zaza has subtly told us the super major is BP when he said that little story of BP transferring oil through Georgia.

Sorry I copied the wrong link :-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Oil

Morning Laks. I like the reference to super majors. Exxon and BP IMHO, as the former was seen with Government officials and the latter has been building a pipeline through the country.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4160397-oil-supermajors-seven-sisters-battling-top-oil-honors

StarRage - Unless, we're going to get a suspension and then the NOMAD wouldn't be required.

One of the shorters, wshak posted the following on Advfn :-
Thefozzer,I know what was said at the meeting - it was laughable how easily everyone rolled over whilst getting precisely zilch in terms of hard news.The NOMAD wasn't present, however, which I find very surprising given the nature of what was said.I think Zaza has crossed the line, FWIW, and is taking the firm into an area where I can't comment as I'd like to.

This is why I think we might get a suspension, as I am surprised that the NOMAD wasn't present. However, wshak might be telling porkies having read a few of his previous posts.

We may now get a RNS stating 'Suspension of Trading'. IMHO that would leave YA with 2 x 15m lots of shares sold (assuming they sold the 2 x 15m over the last two days), which would have to be bought back at a much higher price, after a deal is completed with the super majors. Although Zaza talked about a JV/farmout, with the time and money spent on a CPR by the super majors, I wouldn't rule out a takeover of Block 12. Thanks for all the feedback on the meeting.

Part one of the previous post :-
With a Q&A the themes move around all the time – so I have tried to group them a little. Also worth noting that Zaza and Lev only stayed for a few minutes at the end – they were off to a conference call. Presumably US based given the time.

Have to say I take my hat off to the guy – 90 minutes of questions in another language and we could easily have gone on longer. Anyway – for those interested here we go – no particular order:

ARBRITATION, PSA, POLITICS

Authorities dragging their feet – basically Zaza is saying categorically that the GOGC interpretation of contract is wrong (and I assume this relates to areas beyond Tarabani and MK). Restated his clear view of PSA timelines etc
Meantime BAU
Has no impact on potential deals
Sees no issue re the regional politics – evidenced by plenty of other stuff happening
If farm in or operational agreement should be no issues – but each slightly different re how the PSA would operate
Repeated the view of Block 12 being a series of circles – each could be a different third party deal eventually
Is aware of the presentation at LSE next Friday. Sees as more about raising cash (bonds) for the Georgian Government but clearly also about reinforcing Georgia as a place to do business.
NIKO

Still waiting on hedge fund – plan is to go to Zone 25
No issues vis a vis the majors – would fit it in
End year 1000 bopd is dependent on this
MOLDOVA/UKRAINE

Moldova looking good – working through the database
At least one of the majors interested in the prospect
After Tarabani this will move up the priority list
Ukraine less so – not accelerating – too much going on
YA

Ongoing discussions – including earlier in the day
Taking a very strong line – stated we take on Govt/YA/Others when we are confident on our position
Repeated can/would pay in cash or shares. But agreement/payments is/are suspended because YA traded shares not awarded. Investigation/discussions ongoing
Nothing new really – repeating stance already RNSd

Laks - Posted by Devex on ii :-
WELL TESTS

Described T39 as “fantastic”. Exceeds all expectations
Z14 and Z15 – and Z9 - “going well”
Gas currently being flared pending new kit
Majors all over the tests – constantly demanding new angles. Hence EWT updates embargoed
MAJORS

Described them as Super Majors. These particular NDAs were signed in June/July
In competition with each other – one further forward than the other
Technical teams in constant day to day contact, plus commercial teams
One Major has developed a joint proposition that if proven would reduce Tarabani lifetime Capex by $300 million and increase revenues by $1-2 billion. Dizzy stuff if it happens
Interested in both oil and gas – including MK
FRR have had to significantly increase their technical team to deal with all of the activity
One major has completed their Tarabani Oil review – believes the oil estimate will consequently increase
Majors do not need a new CPR – their teams are hugely experienced and have been all over the numbers. Believes a deal will come ahead of any reserve declaration or any new CPR
Deal will be either a farm in or a joint operating model. The important element will be an upfront cash injection to allow an initial “carry” facility for the FRR Capex requirements. No discussion taking place re a take-over or buy-out
Believes UD2 was a great success – proving to others that gas will flow
Zaza seems to be working towards a year end deal – ahead of any AGM.
Obviously he can’t guarantee this – but he seemed on a genuine roll
MONEY

Pressed on HY1 and the current cash position
Said that revenues continue to improve – but only hit very back end of HY1
Repeatedly asked about whether shareholders would be called upon again operationally – or indeed re a deal
Was not categoric but my sense was strongly that he wanted to avoid any further dilution. We will have to see
Re a deal the above mentioned “carry” facility would be key – avoiding a big shareholder call
They have incurred some new costs – eg gas separator, strengthening technical teams
OTHER

A few great phrases
“Super Majors”
Re the SP – “every time I do one of these presentations the SP drops”
Re the SP – “ the dog will soon catch the car”
“Golden Age before us – not behind us”
OVERALL
Given no RNS, no slide pack and no new info - a cracking 2 hours. Best yet in my view – and I for one have a spring in my step. They are very, very busy – we need to let them get on with it.

Will someone going to the meeting tonight, ask how long the two majors have been looking in the data room? Also, how long have the NDA's been in place please?

StarRage - If that was the case, then why hasn't the II added when the price dropped down into the lower 0.2's? The price was almost double for most of June.

StarRage - It's a quarterly update then, which means the 66m could have been added in April, May or June. There were 56m shares converted by YA in April and 70m in March (numbers to the nearest million). It was probably just the extra shares being sold that allowed the II to accumulate in similar numbers. If there was no selling in large numbers, the buys by the II would have pushed up the share price, so the II was just taking advantage of YA converting each month.

Flakey5185 - That should be '5 Mo. Net Change: 0', therefore, either FRR haven't released the relevant data or it means that if there's no change for 3 months or more, it only shows as 3 months? It was showing 'Increased Positions: 60m+' and' Net Buyers:1', 2 months back.