Member Info for Madpunter

Mole the flow rate is possible, but it would depend upon the safety aspects etc, hence my reply to you on the 19th July copied below :-
Mole - I think that the 'production could be SIGNIFICANTLY higher'is probably due to the choke size of 8/64, as the pipe is only open for an eighth, which implies that it could flow at 8 x 529bpd = 4232bpd. However, the increased choke size does not give a linear increase in flow, as there are other factors. Furthermore, because of the pressure differences between the bottom of the hole and the surface, damage can occur if they get the choke size wrong. I think they will have a better understanding after the EWT as to the best choke size, and I'm sure they wouldn't want to take any unnecessary risks. If there is anyone on here with a better understanding of the physics, they could explain the other factors that link flow rates and choke size.
http://gekengineering.com/Downloads/Free_Downloads/Choke.pdf

The increase from 6/64" to 8/64" was more than double the flow rate, increasing from 250bopd to 529bopd, yet double the hole size would be 12/64". There's less friction from the side of the hole and less back pressure, with a larger bore. There are other factors which are too complicated for my basic knowledge of fluid dynamics, but the rate 'should be significantly higher' (Zaza's words from the podcast). IMHO it's the flaring of the gas that's restricted the initial flow rates, so I only see it increasing substantially.

Sorry that should read I've not Iv'e.

soonyclimes - Not all of it would be recoverable. Iv'e copied a previous post of mine below, which gives the approximate amount based upon the recoverable rates of fields in the CPR :-
18kMMbbls oil and 202TCF (at the same recoverable rates as the figures in the CPR = 2.9kMMbbls and 140TCF) . If this is converted to oil equivalent (1TCF = 170MMbbls oil) = 2.9 + 26.7 = 29.6kMMbbls. With an oil price of $75/bbl = $2002.5bn.
Typical takeover amounts for O + G companies are 1 - 3%. As the numbers are so huge, it would have to be a consortium (we have two majors interested remember) and the 1% would likely be the top limit. Therefore, with 1% = $20bn, which equates to a share price of 98p. If a JV/farmout, then I would look at 0.1% = $2bn, which equates to 9.8p. If FRR were to go into field production alone borrowing the money, then £500m market cap. is achievable + $440m recoverable expenditure is roughly $1bn. Hence, why IMHO $2bn is the figure for a JV/farmout.
IMHO a figure somewhere in the middle of the range is most likely for a buyout of Block 12. Therefore, halfway between $2bn and $20bn is $11bn, which equates to a share price of 53.5p ($11bn = £8.44bn @ current rate of $1 = £0.7675).
Remember, I have used a very conservative value of just over 0.5% of the value of the recoverable hydrocarbons. When takeovers are considered, factors that give higher valuations are low costs per barrel; infrastructure in place; market in place; proven resources and fields already in production. BP recently bought 4.6kMMbbls for $10.5bn and FRR has almost 6.5 times as much. The costs for the BP acquisition are well under $50/bbl, whereas for FRR it is under $12/bbl. There are pipelines running through Block 12, with the nearest to Tarabani only 18km away. There's a ready market in place connected to the pipelines. Production apart from the very low zone 9, is only just starting for FRR. Tthe resources are being proven by the current EWT's, plus the seismics and the proven geology of the Kura Basin and Maykop formation. Therefore, IMHO taking everything into consideration, half a percent of the recoverable value is very conservative and not utter tosh.
I am assuming the resource of 4.6kMMbbls of oil BP bought is the amount recoverable, as I haven't found a breakdown for the resource.
FRR has 6.5 times as much recoverable hydrocarbons and 4 times as much profit per barrel, which equates to 26 times as much profit. BP's acquisition is already flowing at 190kbbls/d and is a proven resource. IMHO $11bn for 26 times as much profit, than a resource for $10.5bn with the field already developed, is a good deal.

IMHO the CAPEX can be reduced because of the flow rates for T39. If FRR's plan was to flow T39 at a rate where the well could naturally recharge without any decline. Then after a few years when the pressures were similar to zones 9, 14 and 15, they comingle all the zones. The super major could flow zone 19 at a much higher rate, reducing the overall number of years production from the well, but allowing the pressures to be equalized much earlier. Remember zone 19 was 529bbls/d for a choke of 8/64", which implies over 4,000bbls/d. If the data for example suggests that after the natural decline the flow would stabilize at 1000bbls/d and it takes 12 months to drop to this level, so FRR flow it at 1000bbls/d and there's no decline (the choke would altered). The super major could flow it at 4000bbls/d and lets say it drops to the 1000bbls/d after just 4 months. Using the figures of $3.5m per well and $75/bbl, then the payback would drop from 47 days to 12 days and for 35 the next days, there's 4 times as much profit. If the FDP was 100 wells costing $350m and producing 100,000bbls/d for the first two years, then with the super major's FDP could achieve this with 50 wells for a cost of $175m.
100 wells x 1000bbls/d x 360d = 36,000,000bbls
50 wells x 1000bbls/d x 360d = 18,000,000bbls + 4 months at an extra 3000bbls/d = (3000bbls/d x4 x30d x 50 wells = 18,000,000) = 36,000,000.These figures are just for illustration, but show how for lower CAPEX, extra profit could be achieved, due to the increased flow in the early life of the well. Also, there's the extra profit from comingling earlier.

jonnybbad - 1TCF = roughly 1,000 petajoules.
http://www.chemlink.com.au/conversions.htm

boyentrant in the filter pool. Your filtered, goodbye!

IMHO this needs to drop a bit more for the strength to turn blue like the direction. I think there may be a bounce, followed by a double or triple bottom to align with ma5k's chart.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/AFC.LN/opinion
http://www.ma5k.com/trading/charts/AFC_18-09-29.jpg
DYOR, as this could prove risky. I have only glanced at the AFC board, but it could be due a placing. I won't be buying as I'm waiting on FRR.

Exuberence - I know about Wshak's posts as I take a look at Advfn. I think he's still shorting, but I also think YA is still naked shorting, which is different, as it's illegal, except for the MM'sl. There were over 15m of sells from Monday cancelled today, which IMHO are failed to deliver trades, just like the one's by YA in late August/early September, plus May and June. Add two lots of 30m, one from today and one from yesterday, and that equates to roughly one month's convertible shares. There were plenty of other sells for amounts in millions which could have been Wshak's.

Timster assuming that the two lots of 30m sells are YA naked shorting again, wouldn't it be nice to get a suspension of trading until the deal is complete with the super majors? How would YA get out of that one?

Star I have just looked at the number of buys, sells and the volume and there's 30m+ missing, which backs up the theory of a big buy order being filled. V = 190m; sells = 80m and buys = 79m.

Star I know that, but he/she's not on here and I assumed that you agree with the post, which is why you re-posted it.

Cancelled trades for a total of 15,584,207 shares from yesterday's trading. What's the betting that the 30m sells get cancelled as well.

StarRage - I think your right about the MM's, hence my very small top up @ 0.4225p still showed as a sell.

Kalan - ma5k's chart from 11th April shows the next three targets. However, if a deal with the super majors arrives, then it could possibly gap up way beyond those targets.
http://tellas.co.uk/Charts/FRR_Potential.jpg

Hopefully another short by YA and we get a gap up before they get chance to close it.

Also worth noting that the super majors tax year finishes Dec.31st. Will they want to pass on the windfall from the rising POO to the taxman or invest in a world class asset?

The 200MA on investing is 0.431p. The news was Zaza stating in the shareholder meeting last Thursday that it's 2 super majors competing with each other. He also mentioned that they think we have even more resource than FRR have suggested. FRR have suggested 18KMMbbls of oil and 202TCF of gas. He also mentioned 3 trainloads of oil since testing.

A very little retrace. Plenty more in this today I think.

A little retrace now, but IMHO it will still finish above the 200MA and is the start of what could be a very steep uptrend.

Laks FRR is up 29.8% @ 0.49p.