Member Info for Madpunter

Zib Wshak's post from advfn :-
One of the shorters, wshak posted the following on Advfn :-
Thefozzer,I know what was said at the meeting - it was laughable how easily everyone rolled over whilst getting precisely zilch in terms of hard news.The NOMAD wasn't present, however, which I find very surprising given the nature of what was said.I think Zaza has crossed the line, FWIW, and is taking the firm into an area where I can't comment as I'd like to.

Thanks Mick. Keep up the good work. Tell thefozzer he's doing a good job as well, hence why I didn't want him fretting over the finances.

Mick - You need to reassure 'thefozzer' that the two trainloads for auction on the 10th September and 1st October were FRR's oil and that there was also a trainload in June. Zaza stated three train loads in the Shareholder meeting. The oil density matches; the route matches and the probable flow rates match. Therefore, 30,000bbls x $75/bbl = $2.25m roughly 45 days after auction in August and the same due in two weeks, plus another payment in mid November. If you want my links for the route, density and flow rates I'll re-post them.

Nice one Zeb. Your call confirms the thoughts of many on here, regarding the NOMAD's verification of the two super majors possible JV/FO intentions. All done without a calculator, log book or slide rule in sight.

Zib , with your wit and wisdom, I thought you were old enough to have to get your log book or even slide rule out. Only joking. Your sarcasm has a similar effect, thanks Zib.

Coggy - There's probably a large order being filled. StarRage suggested as much on Tuesday and I posted about 30m+ shares missing, when deducting the buys, sells and mid-point trades from the volume traded. There was a further 8m Wednesday, but the volume traded yesterday was too small, so no noticeable difference. Only about 1.5m missing today, but I missed last Friday and Monday this week, when the volume was very good and figures similar or more than Tuesday's were possible. Therefore, 100m+ could have been accumulated already, since last weeks shareholder meeting, when the volume increased.

bigdouble - There has been a 30m sell Monday and Tuesday, plus a 15m sell yesterday and today, for a total of 90m shares.

bmsavins and ART123 in the filter pool. Your filtered, goodbye!

Laks - Now FRR are taking Outrider to court. It looks like both Outrider and YA both want shares and not cash. I wonder if it is because they know that the two super majors are close to a deal?

threeput- I think you owe Laks some chocolate for changing her gender.

Laks - When they wake up to those facts, do you see them returning to gold? If yes, what sort of timescale before they return?

Zib, I can't find him on any of the wiki lists, so maybe he only played for the reserves. To be fair, Bomber never mentioned his father playing for Man Utd, it was only when I saw him in a team photo in their front room. I was rather young at the time, so he may have told me it was only the reserves. Nice family, and not the sort to brag about anything.

Zib, his name was Tanetta. I'm not sure if I've spelled it right though.

No Zib, he wasn't a household name, but he did play for them in the fifties, if I remember right.

Different Bomber then. Just thought you may have been someone I know, especially as he was born in 64 and has always been known as Bomber. His heritage was Italian, but his father played for Man U.

Thanks Bomber64. Did your father used to play for Man U?

Thanks Kenirogas.

Laks - I'm not disagreeing with your knowledge on gold as a safe haven, but it begs the question of where do people put their money when the markets are crashing? Banks have paltry interest rates and are no longer considered safe, while government bonds are often beyond the scope of the smaller investor.

Mole - I see the flows below 1000bopd due to not flaring the gas for long periods at higher flow rates and due to change in the type of testing. See my post from Sunday copied below and the link regarding testing :-
There are different types of testing. The EWT is to enable FRR and the two super majors to calculate reservoir size, decline curve, flow rates and permeability, both horizontal and vertical, which will give production from the continuous flow of oil. Productivity testing requires transient pressure changes through varying choke sizes and stopping and starting the flow to check if there's an homogeneous formation or low permeability zones. I'm quite new to this type of testing, but from my reading it implies that the productivity testing will result in possibly less oil being produced during testing, which might be why we will need Niko after the descriptive testing changes to productivity testing. Perhaps someone who has worked in this field can enlighten us.
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b4d2/d236dcd461181b957acc499f9cb4722740e6.pdf
Regarding the fracked zones, 9, 14 and 15, I agree with you, hence my recent post on revised flow rates.

My earlier calculation of the flow rates is listed below :-
Zaza stated 4 to 6 weeks to fill a trainload and 3 trainloads of oil. Therefore I will assume that the two train loads were full by 10th September 2018 (one for auction on 10th, one for auction on the 1st October and the third is from June seen in the Twitter photos).That gives a total of 154 days from the start of T45 on the 8th April. Assuming 30,000bbls for each train load of light oil = 90,000bbls.
I have read somewhere 130bbls/d for the zone 9 wells x 154 days = 20,020bbls.
I will assume that T39 flows at 250bbls/d as the gas was increasing (Zaza podcast) x 68 days (from 4th July) = 17,000bbls.
Therefore, 90,000bbls - (20,020 + 17,000)bbls = 52,980bbls to come from T45 and Dino-2.
If T45 and Dino-2 flow without decline = 270bbls/d + 315bbls/d = 585bbls/d x 114 days = 66,690bbls.
Then T45 flowing without decline for the remaining 40 days (Dino-2 starte testing on 18th May) = 270bbls/d x 40 days = 10,800bbls.
The total for T45 and Dino-2 without decline is 66,690bbls + 10,800bbls = 77,490bbls.
If we deduct the 52,980bbls expected = 24,510bbls, which is 31.63% less than the flow rates without decline.
Therefore, deducting 31.63% of the flow rates gives average flow rates over the 154 days of 215bbls/d for Dino-2 and 185bbls/d for T45. As most of the decline will be near the start, I am going to estimate final flows of 200bbls/d for Dino-2 and 170bbls/d, for T45.
If my assumptions are correct, then FRR would have oil revenue around mid August, 25th October and 14th November for each trainload.
30,000bbls x $75/bbl = $2.25m for each trainload.
T45 + Dino-2 + T39 + Zone 9's = (170 + 200 + 250 + 130)bbls/d = 750bbls/d.
Add Niko at the same rate for zone 19 as T39 = 1000bbls/d by the end of the year if Niko is still drilled.
At 750bbls/d it would take 40 days to fill a train, which is just under 6 weeks.
Open the choke on T39 to 8/64" = 529bbls/d and the total becomes 1029bbls/d, which would fill a train in 29 days, 1 day over 4 weeks. Zaza said 4 to 6 weeks for a trainload, so perhaps they are starting to test T39 at 8/64" flowing 529bbls/d.

Revised figures
The previous production was 220bopd, with 75bopd of heavy oil and 35bopd from T45 and Dino, leaving 120bopd, not 130bopd (see the link below).
https://fronteraresources.com/frontera-announces-operations-update-entry-seda-backed-loan-agreement-support-ongoing-work-programs/
zone 9's = 120bopd x 154d = 18480bbls
T39 = 250bopd x 68d = 17000bbls.
zone 9's + T39 = 35480bbls
90,000bbls - 35480bbls = 54,520bbls
77490bbls - 54520bbls = 22970bbls, which is a 29.6% decline, not 31.63%. This gives average flow rates of 222bopd for Dino and 193bopd for T45. With a 15bopd reduction as previously used, this gives T45 = 178bopd and Dino = 207bopd.
Therefore, the total flow of light crude = (Dino + T45 + T39 + zone 9's)flow rates = (207 + 178 + 250 + 120)bopd = 755bopd.