Member Info for Madpunter

Why is FRR now producing more oil?
Perhaps after an EWT on T39 to get the descriptive test results, FRR are now doing productivity testing at much higher rates by reducing the choke and opening the size of the bore. The descriptive testing will enable FRR and the two super majors to calculate reservoir size, decline curve, flow rates and permeability, both horizontal and vertical. Whereas the productivity testing requires transient pressure changes, through varying choke sizes and stopping and starting the flow, to check if there's an homogeneous formation or low permeability zones.

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b4d2/d236dcd461181b957acc499f9cb4722740e6.pdf

Assuming that FRR has been increasing the flow rate from T39 by altering the choke (at full bore 8 x 529bopd = 4232bopd, except the equation is not linear due to other factors), then after the 1st October auction, we would expect another within a month. Zaza did state 4 - 6 weeks to fill a trainload and there's an auction on the 22nd October. This time the quantity has increased to 9,000t = 69,390bbls. I wonder why two majors are interested and Zaza is so confident about paying the bills?

Prior to the recent work on T45, Dino and T39, FRR was producing 145bopd of light crude + 75bopd of heavy oil = 220bopd in total.
https://fronteraresources.com/frontera-announces-operations-update-entry-seda-backed-loan-agreement-support-ongoing-work-programs/
4,500t 12 September 2016
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1070.pdf
211d x145bopd = 30595bbls between 12th September 2016 and 11th April 2017
162d X 145bopd = 23490bbls between 11th April and 20th September 2017
174d x 145bopd = 25230bbls between 20th September 2017 and 13th March 2018
34695 - 30595 = 4100)bbls not from FRR
(34695 - 23490 = 11205)bbls not from FRR
(34695 - 25230 = 9465)bbls not from FRR
24770bbls/547d = 45bopd average not from FRR between 12th September 2016 and 13th March 2018
Between 13th March 2018 and 22nd October 2018 = 223d x 45bopd = 10,035bbls not from FRR.
38,550bbls + 38,550bbls + 69,390bbls = 146,490bbls transported in the last three trains less the 10,035bbls
136,455bbls from FRR. @ $75/bbl = $10,234,125
The links from the previous post :-
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1070.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1185.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1226.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1260.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1370.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1379.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1382.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/en/statistika

Could easily be arranged to pay YA and Outrider off in full, (if FRR wished) with the revenue due from the last three trainloads of oil.
FRR produces around 220bopd x 365d = 80,300bbls/7.71 = 10,415t.
As we don't know the start and finish dates of filling the trains, the only train that was totally filled in 2017 is the one auctioned on 20th September 2017 containing 7,000t. If FRR's oil is not in the trainloads being auctioned, then 17,415t was produced in Georgia, plus any added to the trains before 11th April and after 20th September, within 2017. However, the total production for Georgia in 2017 was 32,000t, but just under 15,000t was produced by GOGC. Therefore, if the oil produced by FRR was not included in the auctioned trainloads, nothing was produced in 2017 in the trainload auctioned on 11th April 2017 or the trainload auctioned on the 13th March 2018, otherwise the production figures for the contractor's share would be exceeded. This proves that the trainloads of oil includes the oil from FRR. Also, most of the oil produced by the contractor's was the light crude produced by FRR, with the heavy oil in decline (see the statistics 1st block graph of the GOGC link). Now we have production of Light oil increasing from just over 10kt per year to 19kt in just over a month. IMHO this is the oil from FRR, as T39 is gushing (over 4000bopd is possible from the full bore, based upon 529bopd with a 8/64" choke).

12th September 2016 7,000t (Light crude 4,500t)
11th April 2017 7,000t (Light crude 4,500t)
20th September 2017 7,000t (Light crude 4,500t)
13th March 2018 7,000 (Light crude 4,500t)
10th September 2018 6,000t (Light crude 5,000t)
1st October 2018 6,000t ( Light crude 5,000t)
22nd October 2018 12,000t (Light crude 9,000t)
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1070.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1185.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1226.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1260.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1370.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1379.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1382.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/en/statistika
https://fronteraresources.com/frontera-announces-operations-update-entry-seda-backed-loan-agreement-support-ongoing-work-programs/
The link for the conversion of barrels to tonnes is below :-
https://www.platts.com/IM.Platts.Content/MethodologyReferences/ConversionTables/Images/CCSS1015_Energy_Industry_Conversions_LRG.pdf

The link for the conversion of barrels to tonnes is below :-
https://www.platts.com/IM.Platts.Content/MethodologyReferences/ConversionTables/Images/CCSS1015_Energy_Industry_Conversions_LRG.pdf

The oil auction links didn't work on the previous post, so I've re-posted them below, along with the statistics link :-
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1070.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1185.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1226.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1260.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1370.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1379.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1382.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/en/statistika

FRR produces around 220bopd x 365d = 80,300bbls/7.71 = 10,415t.
As we don't know the start and finish dates of filling the trains, the only train that was totally filled in 2017 is the one auctioned on 20th September 2017 containing 7,000t. If FRR's oil is not in the trainloads being auctioned, then 17,415t was produced in Georgia, plus any added to the trains before 11th April and after 20th September, within 2017. However, the total production for Georgia in 2017 was 32,000t, but just under 15,000t was produced by GOGC. Therefore, if the oil produced by FRR was not included in the auctioned trainloads, nothing was produced in 2017 in the trainload auctioned on 11th April 2017 or the trainload auctioned on the 13th March 2018, otherwise the production figures for the contractor's share would be exceeded. This proves that the trainloads of oil includes the oil from FRR. Also, most of the oil produced by the contractor's was the light crude produced by FRR, with the heavy oil in decline (see the statistics 1st block graph of the GOGC link). Now we have production of Light oil increasing from just over 10kt per year to 19kt in just over a month. IMHO this is the oil from FRR, as T39 is gushing (over 4000bopd is possible from the full bore, based upon 529bopd with a 8/64" choke).

12th September 2016 7,000t (Light crude 4,500t)
11th April 2017 7,000t (Light crude 4,500t)
20th September 2017 7,000t (Light crude 4,500t)
13th March 2018 7,000 (Light crude 4,500t)
10th September 2018 6,000t (Light crude 5,000t)
1st October 2018 6,000t ( Light crude 5,000t)
22nd October 2018 12,000t (Light crude 9,000t)
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1070.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1185.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1226.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1260.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1370.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1379.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1382.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/en/statistika
https://fronteraresources.com/frontera-announces-operations-update-entry-seda-backed-loan-agreement-support-ongoing-work-programs/

Revised list with 2016 trainload added.
12th September 2016 for 4,500t
11th April 2017 for 4,500t
20th September 2017 for 4,500t
13th March 2018 for 4,500t
10th September 2018 for 5,000t
1st October 2018 for 5,000t
22nd October 2018 for 9,000t
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1070.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1185.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1226.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1260.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1370.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1379.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1382.pdf

Mole the oil from T39 contains condensate and requires treatment. Previous auctions were for 4.5kt or 5kt roughly every six months and now 19kt between 10th September and the 22nd October. Also, for 18 months prior to the current well tests, there was only 45bopd (light crude) not from FRR (see the calculation in my 09:18 post).

Kenirogas - I've copied part of my post from last month below showing the possible route :-
Georgian Light type oil will be delivered as follows: 3.1.1.1. under EXW
(INCOTERMS 2010) terms, on the oil-gathering facility located on the
territory of the Primary Oil Treatment Unit of JSC "Georgian Oil and Gas
Corporation" in village Sartichala, Gardabani region (stationary object
registration number 1120057) (to be loaded in oil tank cars supplied by the
Buyer);

As the oil from T39 contains condensate, I assume it requires treatment to separate the oil from the condensate. This facility is also on the rail network en-route to Batumi :-

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/01/Un-georgia.png

http://nortonsafe.search.ask.com/search?chn=&cmpgn=&ctype=maps&doi=&geo=&guid=&o=APN11908&p2=%5EET%5Ecd00gb%5E&page=1&prt=&q=sartichala%20georgia&trackId=&ver=&d2=sartichala%20georgia

http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2014/20273nibladze/ndx_nibladze

Dedoplitsakaro in the above link is the nearest rail terminal, just north of Taribani (NNE).The line then runs through Sartichala (on the middle link road map, which if compared with the first link, the S5 road is near to the rail link).

I did not include the auctions where only heavy oil was listed, as it is not relevant. However, the volume will be included in the annual figures for Georgia.

Perhaps after an EWT on T39 to get the descriptive test results, FRR are now doing productivity testing at much higher rates by reducing the choke and opening the size of the bore. The descriptive testing will enable FRR and the two super majors to calculate reservoir size, decline curve, flow rates and permeability, both horizontal and vertical. Whereas the productivity testing requires transient pressure changes, through varying choke sizes and stopping and starting the flow, to check if there's an homogeneous formation or low permeability zones.

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b4d2/d236dcd461181b957acc499f9cb4722740e6.pdf

Assuming that FRR has been increasing the flow rate from T39 by altering the choke (at full bore 8 x 529bopd = 4232bopd, except the equation is not linear due to other factors), then after the 1st October auction, we would expect another within a month. Zaza did state 4 - 6 weeks to fill a trainload and there's an auction on the 22nd October. This time the quantity has increased to 9,000t = 69,390bbls. I wonder why two majors are interested and Zaza is so confident about paying the bills?

Prior to the recent work on T45, Dino and T39, FRR was producing 145bopd of light crude + 75bopd of heavy oil = 220bopd in total.
https://fronteraresources.com/frontera-announces-operations-update-entry-seda-backed-loan-agreement-support-ongoing-work-programs/
4,500t 12 September 2016
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1070.pdf
211d x145bopd = 30595bbls between 12th September 2016 and 11th April 2017
162d X 145bopd = 23490bbls between 11th April and 20th September 2017
174d x 145bopd = 25230bbls between 20th September 2017 and 13th March 2018
34695 - 30595 = 4100)bbls not from FRR
(34695 - 23490 = 11205)bbls not from FRR
(34695 - 25230 = 9465)bbls not from FRR
24770bbls/547d = 45bopd average not from FRR between 12th September 2016 and 13th March 2018
Between 13th March 2018 and 22nd October 2018 = 223d x 45bopd = 10,035bbls not from FRR.
38,550bbls + 38,550bbls + 69,390bbls = 146,490bbls transported in the last three trains less the 10,035bbls
136,455bbls from FRR. @ $75/bbl = $10,234,125

The oil from T39 is 41.5 API = 7.71bbls/t
https://www.platts.com/IM.Platts.Content/MethodologyReferences/ConversionTables/Images/CCSS1015_Energy_Industry_Conversions_LRG.pdf
4,500t = 34695bbls x $60/bbl = $2,081,700 based on the price of Brent in March less about $5
5,000t = 38550bbls x $75/bbl = $2,891,250 based on the recent price of Brent less about $5
9,000t = 69390bbls x $75/bbl = $5,204,250 based on the recent price of Brent less about $5

11th April 2017 for 4,500t
20th September 2017 for 4,500t
13th March 2018 for 4,500t
10th September 2018 for 5,000t
1st October 2018 for 5,000t
22nd October 2018 for 9,000t
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1185.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1226.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1260.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1370.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1379.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1382.pdf

Kenco222 and CF73 - In my previous posts I have explained about the productivity testing at higher flow rates, but with stopping and starting to create pulses in the pressure. As this is not a continuous flow like the descriptive tests to establish flow rates, this may give higher volumes now, but due to the periods of no flow, lower than 1,000bopd by the year end. However, IMHO the proof of three trainloads is just as much of a key focus, as it shows proof of being able to pay YA, which may have been relevant to the granting of an immediate injunction with Outrider. All part of dotting the i's and crossing the t's, when negotiating a deal.

ma5k - The Georgian government have been auctioning a trainload of light crude every six months (there are other auctions of heavy crude in between as well, but they are not relevant here). Now since the 10th September and up to the 22nd of this month more than 4 times as much light crude will have been auctioned in 3 trainloads. Zaza stated that we have had 3 trainloads and NDA's in place withy two super majors. The NOMAD has confirmed the NDA's with the two industry majors. YA could have been given shares, but they were naked shorting.They issue a default notice and Outrider then try to use this to their advantage, but FRR are granted an injunction. I assume this was immediately granted, as they have proved that they have enough money to pay YA.
While there are many shares that are little more than a fairy tale, few have directors that have invested millions of their own money and declined salaries. How long do you think SN would last on the Atlantic Council if this was another AIM scam?

1onic - FRR have been producing oil for over 9 years, but at just 220bopd, which was auctioned every 6 months. The production rate is listed as far back as 2012. The wells producing from zone 9 tailed off very quickly, but then flowed at a stable rate, which they have continued to do to the present.
https://fronteraresources.com/frontera-announces-operations-update-entry-seda-backed-loan-agreement-support-ongoing-work-programs/

The previous auction for light crude prior to these recent 3 auctions was back on the 13th March for 4,500t, which was probably the one every six months for the 220bopd, prior to T45, Dino and T39.
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1260.pdf
This means that my calculations for the flow rates are wrong. The auctions from 10th September, 1st October and 22nd October would seem to be the three trainloads stated by Zaza in the SHM. Therefore, in just over 6 months the light crude up for auction in Georgia has gone up from 4,500t to 19,000t, more than a fourfold increase. The oil is GUSHING!

Perhaps after an EWT on T39 to get the descriptive test results, FRR are now doing productivity testing at much higher rates by reducing the choke and opening the size of the bore. The descriptive testing will enable FRR and the two super majors to calculate reservoir size, decline curve, flow rates and permeability, both horizontal and vertical. Whereas the productivity testing requires transient pressure changes, through varying choke sizes and stopping and starting the flow, to check if there's an homogeneous formation or low permeability zones.

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b4d2/d236dcd461181b957acc499f9cb4722740e6.pdf

Assuming that FRR has been increasing the flow rate from T39 by altering the choke (at full bore 8 x 529bopd = 4232bopd, except the equation is not linear due to other factors), then after the 1st October auction, we would expect another within a month. Zaza did state 4 - 6 weeks to fill a trainload and there's an auction on the 22nd October. This time the quantity has increased to 9,000t = 54,000bbls. I wonder why two majors are interested and Zaza is so confident about paying the bills?
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1382.pdf

1onic - What about the Georgian Government auctioning 3 trainloads of oil? Do you not trust them as well?

Zib I think it was calculated. A poster on here ( I can't remember who it was), stated as much, explaining that there would be no RNS before the meeting. This would convince the shorters that no revenue was being generated and they would carry on as normal. I referenced the post, linking it to my theory regarding the illegal naked shorting and a baited trap. Both posts can longer be found, as I've just spent ages looking for them.