Member Info for Madpunter

pyrotech - If the super majors estimate 20TCF - 50 TCF, then the 10% - 25% of my figures no longer apply. I've used 0.5% of the value because the figures were so huge. With the smaller figures I would convert to the usual 1% - 3% of the recoverable value. When takeovers are considered, factors that give higher valuations are low costs per barrel; infrastructure in place; market in place; proven resources and fields already in production. As only the last part of the previous sentence is lacking to any degree, then I would be looking more towards the upper figure. Using your figures would give $200bn - $500bn, with $2bn - $6bn for the former and $5bn - $15bn for the latter. Therefore, my estimate of $11bn for the sale could still apply. If the 3 majors was not just a slip of the tongue, 50% Exxon, 30% BP and 20% A.N.Other wouldn't be that big a deal for those companies.

tceng - GOGC have a 49% cut of production when the $440m+ exploration costs are recovered by FRR, assuming that they still have a stake in Block 12. If they sell Block 12 in it's entirety, then GOGC will get 49% of all production, but they don't get a percentage of fees paid to FRR for the sale. GOGC's benefit of the sale is that it greatly accelerates with a super major, to the point at which they get a huge revenue from production.

Re-posted in the FRR Archive.
http://www.lse.co.uk/view-general-chat-thread.asp?forum=commodities-and-mining&thread=41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322&page=last#last

CF73 - IMHO 8p to 10p for the sale of Block 12 is way too cheap. See my previous post below :-
Valuation
18kMMbbls oil and 202TCF (at the same recoverable rates as the figures in the CPR = 2.9kMMbbls and 140TCF) . If this is converted to oil equivalent (1TCF = 170MMbbls oil) = 2.9 + 26.7 = 29.6kMMbbls. With an oil price of $75/bbl = $2002.5bn.
Typical takeover amounts for O + G companies are 1 - 3%. As the numbers are so huge, it would have to be a consortium (we have two majors interested remember) and the 1% would likely be the top limit. Therefore, with 1% = $20bn, which equates to a share price of 98p. If a JV/farmout, then I would look at 0.1% = $2bn, which equates to 9.8p. If FRR were to go into field production alone borrowing the money, then £500m market cap. is achievable + $440m recoverable expenditure is roughly $1bn. Hence, why IMHO $2bn is the figure for a JV/farmout.
IMHO a figure somewhere in the middle of the range is most likely for a buyout of Block 12. Therefore, halfway between $2bn and $20bn is $11bn, which equates to a share price of 53.5p ($11bn = £8.44bn @ current rate of $1 = £0.7675).
Remember, I have used a very conservative value of just over 0.5% of the value of the recoverable hydrocarbons. When takeovers are considered, factors that give higher valuations are low costs per barrel; infrastructure in place; market in place; proven resources and fields already in production. BP recently bought 4.6kMMbbls for $10.5bn and FRR has almost 6.5 times as much. The costs for the BP acquisition are well under $50/bbl, whereas for FRR it is under $12/bbl. There are pipelines running through Block 12, with the nearest to Tarabani only 18km away. There's a ready market in place connected to the pipelines. Production apart from the very low zone 9, is only just starting for FRR. Tthe resources are being proven by the current EWT's, plus the seismics and the proven geology of the Kura Basin and Maykop formation. Therefore, IMHO taking everything into consideration, half a percent of the recoverable value is very conservative and not utter tosh.
I am assuming the resource of 4.6kMMbbls of oil BP bought is the amount recoverable, as I haven't found a breakdown for the resource.
FRR has 6.5 times as much recoverable hydrocarbons and 4 times as much profit per barrel, which equates to 26 times as much profit. BP's acquisition is already flowing at 190kbbls/d and is a proven resource. IMHO $11bn for 26 times as much profit, than a resource for $10.5bn with the field already developed, is a good deal.

Laks and 1onic - I have nothing against shorting. Also I think some of the respected posters on FRR understand the necessity of shorting in helping liquidity in the market. However, there appears to have been an orchestrated attack on FRR, by TW and related parties using insider information. There was the release to the market by TW about the possibility of arbitration. This is possibly linked to Hope and Outrider, who has tried a hostile takeover previously. The animosity is not directed towards shorters per se, but the group associated with TW, who have spread lots of disinformation. The 'bent fat toad' description of Malcolm Graham-Wood is typical of the unnecessary abuse petered out by this cabal. Anyway, the three of us have spent too long on a side issue. The important part of the post is that everything looks to be coming together and the TA is starting to align as well. Laks, for this weekend I hope your team doesn't win, but realistically I would settle for a draw.

Laks - The share price and the 200MA are converging nicely on the daily. IMHO it will overtake the 200MA next week and continue to rise. The ducks are all lining up and the Georgian Presidential election has possibly delayed the ExxonMobil + (1 or 2) JV/FO or buyout of Block 12. rugbybob has predicted the RNS for next Thursday or Friday. Apparently he is nearly always right???
The previous post and what is copied below were posted by Bluevista :-
Exxon ducks:

1. Withdraws from major JV with Rosneft (March 18) citing Western sanctions against Russia. Exxon and Rosneft had expected to invest upwards of $500 billion. Where do they close that gap? Duck 13
2. Then in March 2018, Exxon made its most extensive multiyear forecast yet at its annual investor day in New York. The company aims to boost daily production by a million barrels a day, to five million barrels (with natural gas converted to an equivalent amount of oil) and increase profit by 135% by 2025. Duck 14
3. Exxon acquires 2.5 percent stake in the Azeri Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline in March 18. They have a seat at the table on the transportation side, route to market tick. Duck 15
4. ExxonMobil to study hydrocarbon resources in Western Georgia, and train up GOGC staff in analysis techniques. Low value investment by Exxon, high value service to GOGC/GG (repeating above, but they're officially in Georgia in in bed with GG). Duck 16

I think this is coming together nicely.

I see the sewer smells have returned. I thought they'd given up. Ah well, I do hope they extend their shorts!

So I think we should have a look at the ducks lining up. Note I've not had time to put this into a chronological order nor is it exhaustive - so please feel free to add.

Georgian ducks:

1. Mole reminded us that the Georgian Presidential election is this weekend. Likely candidate to win being supported by the incumbent Georgian Dream party. Key issue being economy and jobs. Any major deal would be unlikely to be announced before there is political stability, given the proximity of this election. Election this weekend, and the Georgian Dream preferred candidate winning is Duck number 1.
2. GG announced the Exxon visit earlier this year, socialising the fact that Super Major O&G business are showing interest in Georgia. Duck 2.
3. GG dismantled and integrated the old Energy Ministry, which had an antagonistic relationship with FRR, into the Ministry for the Economy and Sustainable Development. Duck 3.
4. Georgian PM appoints Giorgi Kobulia as Economy Minister. Kobulia was a former senior partner at McKinsey consulting business, where he led the Moscow based consulting practice for Oil and Gas strategy, amongst other things. He knows what he's doing, in relation to hydrocarbon strategy and will have relationships already with major global players. Duck 4.
5. GG announced signing agreement with ExxonMobil to study hydrocarbon resources in Western Georgia, and train up GOGC staff in analysis techniques. Low value investment by Exxon, high value service to GOGC/GG. Duck 5.

Frontera ducks:
Too many to mention but key to me are:

1. SN and Zaza convert debt to shares at conversion price of 1 p per share, fully aligning themselves with retail shareholders. Clean up balance sheet. Duck 6
2. Launch 3 well campaign plus UD2 drilling on an apparent 'go it alone' strategy. Successfully concludes all drilling and completions in Taribani. Asset proven. Duck 7
3. Potential partners influence drilling of T39 to Z19… massive conventional O&G play confirmed. Duck 8
4. FRR swamped by tech and commercial teams from two Super Majors and responds by re-engaging qualified staff. Duck 9
5. Super Majors super computer tells majors 'we got it wrong' - resource estimates are in fact greater than FRR had estimated and greater than NSA CPR… oh, and they can improve extraction cost assumptions too. Duck 10
6. Super Majors signs NDA x2 including EWT due diligence and stress testing the wells, and engages in commercial discussions. Duck 11
7. I could go on but you get the point…. But its enough for Zaza to say we have a 'brilliant future'. Duck 12

Cont.

Mole - rugbybob predicted next Thursday or Friday for the RNS. If the prediction is right, it could be one of the first announcements for the new Georgian President.

ODR - News is released an hour before here, but if released at the same time in NY, they're still in bed. I would be like releasing it here at 0200 hrs.
Star - Not really, as IMHO we'll get a suspension until an hour before NY opens and then the RNS.

I look for the RNS each day, but it has just dawned on me that it probably won't come until pm, to coincide with opening across the pond. ExxonMobil are probably one of the super majors, after the deal for W. Georgia.Therefore, I don't see FRR releasing news here in London, before ExxonMobil does over in New York.

StarRage - The interviewer also said three majors in the question and now doesn't even ask the same question.

Pecten11 - I know what I heard. I listened to it twice and after Freeatlast's post, I listened a third time. It was different to the first two times.

The recording has been altered. Both said three majors and now just Zaza mentions majors at 1:49 with what Freeatlast posted - "in terms of industry majors"?

It's just a coincidence then?

Mole - How do you explain Zaza's comment about 3 trainloads, if the oil is not being auctioned?

pophead - The holdings that list show he has 1,710,901,096 shares. Most will be from converting his CLN's into shares. The list shows that he bought continuously at much higher prices than the current share price.

1onic - I know you have a wealth of experience, so maybe you could suggest a few companies that have directors with 'plenty of skin in the game' which is not from freebies. The shares not accounted for below are for CLN's converted to shares and shares in lieu of salaries.
Trade Date Action Notifier Price Currency Amount Holding
25-Aug-17 Placing Steve C Nicandros 0.1 GBX 40,207,168 1710901096
27-Jul-15 Buy Steve C Nicandros 0.8 GBX 11,079,417 200564530
12-Nov-12 Buy Steve C Nicandros 0.5 GBX 6,252,857 189485113
12-Nov-12 Buy Steve C Nicandros 0.49 GBX 2,250,000 189485113
09-Nov-12 Buy Steve C Nicandros 0.49 GBX 4,250,000 189485113
14-Feb-12 Buy Steve C Nicandros 1.07 GBX 1,230,000 159493473
29-Nov-11 Buy Steve C Nicandros 1.11 GBX 235,000 158263473
29-Nov-11 Buy Steve C Nicandros 1.01 GBX 915,000 158263473
04-Nov-11 Buy Steve C Nicandros 1.4 GBX 446,000 0
02-Oct-09 Transfer Steve C Nicandros 0 1,068,750 0
18-Sep-09 Placing Steve C Nicandros 10.3 GBX 3,565,675 0
19-Dec-08 Buy Steve Nicandros 25 GBX 100,000 0
03-Sep-08 Buy Steve Nicandros 66 GBX 15,000 0
02-Sep-08 Buy Steve Nicandros 68 GBX 10,000 0
11-Jul-08 Buy Steve Nicandros 94.5 GBX 60,000 0
09-Jul-08 Buy Steve Nicandros 93 GBX 40,000 0
23-Oct-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 1.98 CAD 10,000 0
15-Oct-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 78 GBX 10,000 0
28-Sep-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 75 GBX 25,000 0
28-Jun-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 82 GBX 25,000 0
20-Jun-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 83 GBX 25,000 0
18-Jun-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 81 GBX 40,000 0
15-Jun-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 78.5 GBX 10,000 0
12-Jun-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 78.9 GBX 50,000 0
06-Jun-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 81 GBX 25,000 0
05-Jun-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 81 GBX 25,000 0
06-Oct-06 Buy Steve Nicandros 60 GBX 25,000 0
25-Sep-06 Buy Steve Nicandros 77 GBX 50,000 0
21-Sep-06 Buy Steve Nicandros 50 GBX 100,000 0
03-May-06 Buy Steve Nicandros 124 GBX 50,000 0
10-Jan-06 options Steve Nicandros 0.03 USD 1,859,585 0
10-Jan-06 options Steve Nicandros 1 USD 50,000 0

Trade Date Action Notifier Price Currency Amount Holding
08-May-18 Buy Zaza Mamulaishvilli 0.48 GBX 10,000,000 1,040,259,226
08-May-18 Buy Zaza Mamulaishvilli 0.49 GBX 16,000,000 1,040,259,226
04-Oct-17 Buy Zaza Mamulaishvili 0.58 GBX 172,413,793 1014259226
25-Aug-17 Placing Zaza Mamulaishvili 0.1 GBX 216,203,088 841,845,433
27-Jul-15 Buy Zaza Mamulaishvili 0.8 GBX 11,079,417 82532443
18-Jun-15 Notification of Holding Zaza Mamulaishvili 0 0 71453026

1onic you'd better increase your short then.

Posted on Advfn by spqstrader :-
To all shorters,1. They said FRR would go bust and had a target of 0p by September. They must've been JoeKing one.2. They said FRR would need a placing in May, june, July, August, sept, oct - I'm still waiting.......3. They said FRR would give out shares like confetti to YA in lieu of monthly payments - did I miss that RNS?4. They said YA had FRR by the balls and the company was clearly in default - FRR reduced their monthly payments to YA 4x less for the next 6 months! 5. They said FRR ended up paying much more to YA with the new agreement - note to self, forget pair of socks as Xmas present, to send calculator and reading glasses to short-sighted crew.5. They said B12 is worthless and is just a depleted O&G field - two industry majors have sent their technical teams to tease out the data before making a potential offer6. They said we are all fools to invest in this sham of a company - all I can say is please keep shorting it, short as much as possible, because I will love the smell of Napalm shorts burning in the morning when the JV/farmout RNS lands. Oops, gotta go. There's a pizza delivery guy at the door. I'll make sure I give him a tip ..... a share tip, I meant.....

Thebuy figure for 04-Oct-17 was 1 share short and the holding figure for 25-Aug-17 was wrong, so I've updated the post. I wonder how many more incorrect figures are in the Director's deals?
Trade Date Action Notifier Price Currency Amount Holding
08-May-18 Buy Zaza Mamulaishvilli 0.48 GBX 10,000,000 1,040,259,226
08-May-18 Buy Zaza Mamulaishvilli 0.49 GBX 16,000,000 1,040,259,226
04-Oct-17 Buy Zaza Mamulaishvili 0.58 GBX 172,413,793 1014259226
25-Aug-17 Placing Zaza Mamulaishvili 0.1 GBX 216,203,088 841,845,433
27-Jul-15 Buy Zaza Mamulaishvili 0.8 GBX 11,079,417 82532443
18-Jun-15 Notification of Holding Zaza Mamulaishvili 0 0 71453026