Member Info for Madpunter

If $11bn sounds fanciful as a buyout figure, just think of this, each major would pay $5.5bn for $1tn of recoverable O + G (with a 50/50 split). Seems to me like a good deal for all concerned.

18kMMbbls oil and 202TCF (at the same recoverable rates as the figures in the CPR = 2.9kMMbbls and 140TCF) . If this is converted to oil equivalent (1TCF = 170MMbbls oil) = 2.9 + 26.7 = 29.6kMMbbls. With an oil price of $75/bbl = $2002.5bn.
Typical takeover amounts for O + G companies are 1 - 3%. As the numbers are so huge, it would have to be a consortium (we have two majors interested remember) and the 1% would likely be the top limit. Therefore, with 1% = $20bn, which equates to a share price of 98p. If a JV/farmout, then I would look at 0.1% = $2bn, which equates to 9.8p. If FRR were to go into field production alone borrowing the money, then £500m market cap. is achievable + $440m recoverable expenditure is roughly $1bn. Hence, why IMHO $2bn is the figure for a JV/farmout.
IMHO a figure somewhere in the middle of the range is most likely for a buyout of Block 12. Therefore, halfway between $2bn and $20bn is $11bn, which equates to a share price of 53.5p ($11bn = £8.44bn @ current rate of $1 = £0.7675).

Oldsilkroad in the filter pool. Your filtered, goodbye!

Thanks ma5k. Have you bought in?

Obviously can't read. They are still talking about a massive placing or administration. If FRR was strapped for cash, then there's still $19m available for drawdown as of June 30 2018, with the SEDA effective through to December 31, 2020. However, YA redeemed 241 series A shares for cash in June (it's in the Other Notes Payable section of the half-yearly results). Proof that FRR are paying in cash and will not need the drawdown that's still available.

Pyrotech - I agree. There's already a place for debating those issues, as posted last night :-
pyrotech and regdik - I agree that this board should be just for FRR discussions. If anyone wants to discuss Brexit or politics they are welcome to post on the General Chat Board (click on share chat, then general chat. There's already a few Brexit threads).

The management haven't taken any salary and have invested heavily in FRR. Zaza has bought over $6m and SN even more and at a much higher share price.

1onic - Total assets June 30th 2018 - June 30th 2017 = $11.22m.
The full year accounts from earlier this summer state :-
In addition, estimates of reserves may be revised based on actual production, results of subsequent exploitation and development activities, prevailing commodity prices, operating costs and other factors.
Therefore, the prevailing commodity prices would only account for a similar order of $1- 2m in the Net oil and gas properties. (see the chart in the link below)
Oil climbed from around $65/bbl to $75/bbl for Jan 2018 to June 2018 and around $55/bbl to $65/bbl for June 2017 to January 2018.
http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/crude-oil/1-year/
IMHO the extra $11m is due to the effects of increased actual production, which is one of the factors listed in the above statement from the annual accounts.

Mole - The full year accounts from earlier this summer state :-
In addition, estimates of reserves may be revised based on actual production, results of subsequent exploitation and development activities, prevailing commodity prices, operating costs and other factors.
Therefore, the prevailing commodity prices would only account for a similar order of $1- 2m in the Net oil and gas properties. (see the chart in the link below)
Oil climbed from around $65/bbl to $75/bbl for Jan 2018 to June 2018 and around $55/bbl to $65/bbl for June 2017 to January 2018.
http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/crude-oil/1-year/
IMHO the extra $11m is due to the effects of increased actual production, which is one of the factors listed in the above statement from the annual accounts.

Mole - It states that there was no impairment charge recorded for the six months ending June 30 2018 or 2017.

Richard1032 - Hence, the train route via the treatment plant at Sartichala.

CrudeTrader into the filter pool with the rest of the numpties. Your filtered, goodbye.

Pecten11 - It's from the Net oil and gas properties, which is an asset, and current assets are something that can be converted into cash within a year.

Copied from the link bugsy-b posted :-
Georgian Light type oil will be delivered as follows: 3.1.1.1. under EXW
(INCOTERMS 2010) terms, on the oil-gathering facility located on the
territory of the Primary Oil Treatment Unit of JSC "Georgian Oil and Gas
Corporation" in village Sartichala, Gardabani region (stationary object
registration number 1120057) (to be loaded in oil tank cars supplied by the
Buyer);

As the oil from T39 contains condensate, I assume it requires treatment to separate the oil from the condensate. This facility is also on the rail network en-route to Batumi :-

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/01/Un-georgia.png

http://nortonsafe.search.ask.com/search?chn=&cmpgn=&ctype=maps&doi=&geo=&guid=&o=APN11908&p2=%5EET%5Ecd00gb%5E&page=1&prt=&q=sartichala%20georgia&trackId=&ver=&d2=sartichala%20georgia

http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2014/20273nibladze/ndx_nibladze

Dedoplitsakaro in the above link is the nearest rail terminal, just north of Taribani (NNE).The line then runs through Sartichala (on the middle link road map, which if compared with the first link, the S5 road is near to the rail link).
bugsy-b's post :-
There was an auction of crude oil in Georgia on September 10th.. 6,000 Tonnes of crude...
Today they advertise another auction on October 1st, Also 6,000 Tonnes of crude...
6,000 Tonnes is around 42,000 Barrels of oil...
Someone has cracked the geology out there by the look of things..

http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1379.pdf

5000t of light crude x 6 = 30,000 bbls (conversion rates are 6 to 8 depending upon the density, so I have used the lower rate). Assuming that the first train is from August and the next from September, then that equates to 1,000 bbls/d, which is the rate that Zaza said FRR would be producing by the end of the year.
30,000 x $75/bbl (the rate we were paid previously) = $2.25m each month.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrel_(unit)
The oil from T39 is 41.5 API, which converted to specific gravity = 0.8179. The oil up for auction is 0.810 - 0.845.
Copied from the link in bugsy-b's post :-
Georgian Light:
Density: 0.810-0.8450 gm/cm3 at 20 Co
Sulphur content: max 0.3%
Water content: max 1%
https://www.easycalculation.com/physics/classical-physics/specific-gravity-oil.php

The route fits. The density fits. Perhaps FRR have to sell via government auction so that they have all the figures of sales. Then they will know when all recovered costs have been met and taxes are due (out of their 51% cut).

Actually there's enough time for more than 4 train loads by the time of the second auction on 1st October, if it takes 20 days to fill a train. The fifth train would be 40% full, with the rest from T45 and Dino2 prior to T39.

Total assets June 30 2018 - june 2017 = $11.22m
5000t light crude = 30000bbls x $75/bbl = $2.25m
5 x train loads = $11.25m coincidence?
There was 20 days between the auction, so enough time for almost 4 train loads since the T39 began testing, with the remaining train from T45 and Dino2 and zone 9 wells prior to T39.

The same way as a lot of people sell shares. They phone a broker and instruct them to sell. Then they have to produce the shares. YA have just presented preference shares in the past for conversion into ordinary shares to cover those already sold. Hence, in the past they not only gained by having them at 10% below the previous 5 day weighted average price, but also, they gained on selling at a higher price and they received more shares as the conversion price dropped. There's also the advantage of reducing the market cap., giving even greater shares if a further loan is required.

pyrotech and regdik - I agree that this board should be just for FRR discussions. If anyone wants to discuss Brexit or politics they are welcome to post on the General Chat Board (click on share chat, then general chat. There's already a few Brexit threads).

Kalan - Forward selling is banned. It's only the MM's that are allowed to naked short, which is effectively forward selling. That is why FRR issued the following statement on 19th of this month :-

In response to market inquiries with respect to the Company's announcement of 17 September 2018 (the "Announcement"), the Company would like to clarify that it has come to the Company's attention that on 28, 29, 30 August 2018 and 3 September 2018, YA II PN, Ltd. arbitrarily sold 82,077,412 ordinary shares in the Company that have not been authorised, issued and admitted to trading by the Company.
As described in the Announcement, the Company immediately commenced investigation into the facts surrounding these sales to clarify what shares have been sold and why, and its advisers sent the communication to and raised this issue with YA II PN, Ltd.
The Company is continuing to investigate YA II PN Ltd.'s actions in that regard, particularly the above sales and YA II PN, Ltd.'s any other possible unauthorised dealings in shares, and is unable to comment further at this time pending further investigation with its advisers and the receipt of legal advice.

IMHO the 'any other possible unauthorised dealings' is referring to the cancelled trades, which I think are failed to deliver trades (see previous post copied below).
IMHO the cancelled trades were YA forward selling shares they didn't have in April, May and early June, to push FRR for another contract before the 16th June deadline. They just continued forward selling via their broker, but the preference shares were not converted by FRR. This resulted in the trades being cancelled when YA failed to deliver on the shares. They continued this until they had a new deal with FRR announced in the 7th June RNS. The redemption of the last convertible shares from the previous agreement took place on the 4th April. As FRR laid a baited trap, they may have possibly even delayed later conversions after the new deal, querying the convertible price, resulting in the occasional cancelled trade after the new deal was agreed. Looking back at my posting history, the trades virtually stopped by the 15th June, but those cancelled after the 7th June could have been due to delays in converting preference shares into ordinary shares by FRR as part of the baited trap.
Therefore, in this instance it would appear that you can blame them, as it would appear to be illegal.

Kalan- That's fine in a normal market, but if YA were forward selling and keep selling shares they don't have, resulting in failed to deliver trades, then that puts a different slant on the matter.