Member Info for Madpunter

Laks I'm all in FRR, except what is in DRG under suspension. Good luck with AMER.

Mick - It's quite varied. I have a reasonable education and my first degree was using a systems approach, where instead of starting with an hypothesis, one looks for interconnections. Hence, my sometimes rather fanciful theories (share swop), which I persist with until new facts support an alternative theory (YA naked shorting and failed to deliver cancelled trades). The main factor behind my knowledge is research, research, research, as I have been looking after a close family member with dementia. This has kept me housebound for long periods, giving me time to research. Unfortunately, it also crippled my bank balance, as I'm self employed. Good luck and keep up the good work on the other BB.

3p is way too conservative IMHO. FRR could achieve this in a very short time, if the flow rates of zone 19 alone stayed around 529bbls/d with a 8/64" choke.

If FRR borrowed $100m fro GOGC in return for writing off $140m of the $440m recoverable expenditure.
First stage they drill 10 wells targeting zone 19 = $35m
Build a pipeline to transport the gas and another to transport the oil. Costs are now as low as $25k - $40k/ km for offshore (from memory I think Tarabani is 18km from the nearest pipeline), so it wouldn't be too expensive onshore.
Add separation tanks, processing plant and compressors and $50m might be enough including the drilling costs.
http://natgas.info/gas-information/what-is-natural-gas/gas-pipelines
Ten wells x 529bbls/d = 5290 x $75 = $396750/d
x 360 days = $142.83m per year = £108m per year
Typical market cap. = x 10, but lets be very conservative and use x 5 = £540m = 3.4p just for the oil. Also, remember that Zaza has said that flow rates are expected to be significantly higher.

Laks - More gaps to be filled :-
http://www.valuethemarkets.com/index.php/2018/09/25/amerisurs-bullish-falling-wedge-pattern-still-holds-despite-todays-fall-amer/

pyrotech - YA don't have to tell the MM's or brokers they are going to release millions of shares, everyone knows that is how they operate over the medium to long term. Short term they are informed by the brokers with trading orders from YA. The MM's then set their algorithms to achieve the desired result.

Sorry I wrote MM's instead of YA in the sentence below :-
Don't forget, YA will deal with a broker or brokers and the MM's will be trading with those brokers for many different companies.

Tsbs - YA probably already have and the trading range reflects the price quoted by the MM's. The MM's make money on volume and the spread. IMHO they don't care about the politics and will buy or sell with anyone. Don't forget, the MM,s will deal with a broker or brokers and the MM's will be trading with those brokers for many different companies. They will not turn down a trade for fear of losing a lot of business from those brokers, even when they are losing on the deal. See the article below about how the MM's operate.
https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/1xydch/market_maker_speaks_out_ways_of_a_market_maker/

bedex - IMHO it is a sell, as the buys are all near or at 0.33p. I just think that the MM's are desperate for shares to fill a large buy order for YA closing it's shorts. Similarly, IMHO the 15m sell this morning is the MM's naked shorting to keep the share price in this range. Are the MM's desperate, because they think that time is running out before the share price races away? Perhaps they think that very good news will come before the shareholder meeting.

More than 50 of them on SOLG, from yesterday. Did they do this to spike the price before a retrace? It hit 39.5p yesterday and is now down to 33.7p. That's big movements on a company worth £585m, without any news.

Laks - MM's letting people sell 6m a 5m above the share price. IMHO they are keeping this down to fill a large buy order for YA, who is closing it's short. 15m sell this morning is probably a naked short by the MM's to keep the price in this range. However, after getting it wrong yesterday wtfdik.

bedex - MM's letting people sell 5m shares above the share price!

IMHO the MM's sold the 15m to keep the price in the range for a large order, possibly to fill one closing YA's shorts. Recent sells have been above the share price, even for 6m and 2.3m shares. After the 6m sell, a buy of 5m and 1m went through in minutes.

Tsbs - All I have done is stated the parameters of what I think a deal is worth.I have also highlighted, that the RNS wouldn't state a possible buyout for the obvious reasons, hence, the talk of a JV.

sonnyclimes - If you were one of the majors, would you sanction a RNS stating that you're interested in the whole of Block 12, which might attract competitors?

If the Majors want to buy the whole of Block 12 and are in a NDA with FRR, they aren't going to sanction a RNS stating that objective. They have allowed talk of JV/farmout and the NDA's, as an RNS was required about the funding for Niko and the EWT's are overdue.

Typical takeover amounts for O + G companies are 1 - 3%. As the numbers are so huge, it would have to be a consortium (we have two majors interested remember) and the 1% would likely be the top limit. Therefore, with 1% = $20bn, which equates to a share price of 98p. If a JV/farmout, then I would look at 0.1% = $2bn, which equates to 9.8p. If FRR were to go into field production alone borrowing the money, then £500m market cap. is achievable + $440m recoverable expenditure is roughly $1bn. Hence, why IMHO $2bn is the figure for a JV/farmout.

Timster - You're out by a factor of ten. 18kMMbbls oil and 202TCF (at the same recoverable rates as the figures in the CPR = 2.9kMMbbls and 140TCF) . If this is converted to oil equivalent (1TCF = 170MMbbls oil) = 2.9 + 26.7 = 29.6kMMbbls. With an oil price of $75/bbl = $2002.5bn.

pyrotech - For shorts to close they have to buy, as they borrow shares to sell and then have to buy them back. To make money they want the selling to drop the price, so that when they buy back the price is lower than when they sold. IMHO the 15m sell looks like YA are continuing to short, as they probably think that FRR is bluffing. They are effectively calling for FRR to show it's hand, as they don't believe that anything has changed. IMHO they are in for a big shock. The alternative, is that the MM's are naked shorting (not illegal for them) as they have a big buy order (YA closing it's shorts perhaps) to fill at this level.

Thanks.

Only did that as I couldn't get the chart to copy.