Member Info for LWHL

This is a seriously tough credit environment, no doubt about it.

But this company, well before my unfortunate mistake to come on board, already had a track record of making commercially unwise decisions, IMO.

My thinking at the time was that they had turned a corner. Learnt from previous errors. Ready to finally deliver for shareholders. That the potential of the products would broadly offset managerial weaknesses. Whoops!

Regarding RDT - that is interesting. It is the first company that I have heard about, where a CLN has not been very bad news for LTH's. Although would need to see how the SP fares in the weeks ahead really. Could easily be a short lived spike. As I am not familiar with that stock, I am not really qualified to comment though.

Anyway, as I see it, the BOD here failed to make best use of the easy lending conditions that existed up until fairly recently.

Based on their many failures, misleading statements and the perception that the market seems to have of them being essentially amateurs at best, or dodgy, at worst, I cannot imagine a white knight parting with cash here.

Certainly not on any terms that would give any real comfort to existing holders.

More likely a scenario would be them picking up the good stuff from the carcass for buttons, once administration has taken place, IMO.

I think better companies than this one are going to be toast in the next six months or so, but I naturally hope to be wrong, both in terms of this one and more importantly the macro stuff.

Load shedding, to a point. National politics, to a point. Geopolitics, in the main. IMO.

Love this company. Love Loots. Really, really hoping for a clear sign that this one is going to be a safe enough investment for a western investor once again, before too much longer.

IMO, this question mark is the fundamental reason why this company is valued as it is. And it really annoys me too.

Xenor: Good. Let them take it back to 13.50 or so. I will buy more at that price (subject to the obvious caveats).

I suspect a number of us will do similarly, if it comes to pass.

My primary focus is unchanged here (recap, in case it has been forgotten: FSS funding matters), but now we have positive IM news, which is a material matter.

And one that I had made clear was filed as worth zero value in my calculations, until proven otherwise.

Which it now has been.

So...to those who feel so inclined, short away. That is what makes a market etc.

I will be amazed if the CPI print is not a miss.

I will be disappointed if the market comes to a similar conclusion before I get a similar target exit price too :)

Thanks for your further updates, Dallo.

Good to hear that you will apply whatever levers you can, to ensure these people find it difficult to take up senior positions in the future.

The regulatory authorities should undertake this role of course, but we know how the real world operates, so I hope you are successful in achieving a fair outcome (well, the smallest of consolation prizes, of sorts) on this front.

As to getting a credible FD on board...well, it really will speak volumes if this cannot be achieved.

I should say, as one of presumably, many who have mentally zeroed this one, it would actually shock me, it this was achieved at this point.

If I was as confident as DL intimates, in his shoes, I would buy such a significant number of shares on the open market, that it would take the Bergen scenario almost out of the equation.

But then, I would never have signed a deal like that one in the first place, even in the height of the GFC, so it is rather a moot point. Hey ho.

Maybe I am a chat bot, Scaffman :)

No worries mate.

Yeah, shadowfall is not one that I like to see, although I should be grateful, as their 'dossier' on Burford gave me an opportunity to profit quite nicely on a trade in that one a few years ago. At the time of print, I am backing MA and Camelot to know the state of play better than them, although we shall see. And I do not hold a significant amount in that one now, so can afford to be fairly relaxed I guess. Not that it is ever nice to lose money, if it comes to it! Very interesting set up though. Given it is top of the shorts list...then look at the SP chart...a really fascinating play right now.

Anyway, sorry for the derail folks. Good evening all.

I do not remember seeing MW shorting a tiddler, but I have seen tiddlers on shorttracker.

I only cited that outfit as an example, as they are quite well known. Not for any other reason.

Did you mean to be so rude? I am perfectly awake, thank you.

And I do not dismiss the short side, or the collective power that those types of operations can yield, especially in the micro cap space. Nor do I dismiss bear arguments more generally either. In fact I especially welcome them, as they provide a good counter to my bullish positions, when I am long something. Like this one.

I do not believe that they are capable of destroying good companies though. Only poorly managed outfits or the frauds.

Anyway, given we both appear to be long here, it seems silly to quibble.

Hopefully we will both profit in this one, as well as ASOS, which you also appear to be long.

Not sure about SNG though, although that one will always have fond memories for me.

If you are really interested in seeing short positions, IMO, you cannot go far wrong with shorttracker.

These give 'proper' short notifications - and the likes of Marshall Wace for example, do not care about being below the disclosed thresholds.

As you highlight, Xenor, the IG figures mean absolutely nothing. I was once the only holder of a particular small cap stock on their books some years ago. The data said one 'long' and zero shorts. I was not the only shareholder. I was not even a TR-1 :)

If we end up on shorttracker, then the bearish comments on this topic will have more substance perhaps....but even then, it really does not guarantee a run for the hills signal.

Although I would rather we did not end up on it. At least, not until we are of a far bigger market cap.

If we grow into a mature and profitable company, then sooner or later we are bound to end up on that list, even if only eg 0.6% short interest. Common arbitrage technique at a certain level, not even always something nasty spotted by the likes of MW.

If that day comes, after maturity, then I doubt anyone who has bought at any price within the past 12 months, will be sitting on a loss. But just my opinion - and we are still a long way from that scenario, even if the positive thesis plays out.

Before then, and only IMO, lots of volatility ahead this autumn, so just try and keep some dry powder. GLA.

I completely agree, Pokerchips. In fact, I am always banging on about the need for careful cash management across a number of my holdings.

Might even have mentioned this in one of the other ones that we have a mutual interest in.

Also agree that this is one of the chief duties of the senior finance people in a BOD (including keeping a check on the CEO if or when required).

I am all for seeing things kept as simple as possible too, but JW will ultimately be judged on whether or not he has taken on too much, by the results of this strategy in due course.

Again, I am backing him to bite off as much as HARL can chew, with the assistance of his fellow senior colleagues, to ensure it remains within manageable parameters.

Anyway, never a dull moment in this one!

I agree with your opinion on the market cap potential of HARL, versus the current market cap, but disagree that we need to rapidly move to a main listing.

I want to see much further progression before JW takes that decision.

Try not to get frustrated with the volatile SP action here.

If he keeps on delivering, as IMO he has pretty consistently done since my time here (yes, I know, I know, but that is the time frame that I care about), then I honestly cannot see the sell offs continuing indefinitely.

But as the saying goes, you pays your money and makes your choice etc.

And if I am wrong, I am sure some posters will let me know :)

Have been away and not really kept an eye on this one during that time.

Was surprised to see we are now at the top of the shorts list.

Unless the next update is a real stinker, given the increasing positions of two of our main shareholders so recently, this one looks primed to deliver a real short squeeze, IMO.

I think the next few weeks are going to be very interesting either way! GLA.

Just back from sunnier climes, but enjoyed reading the IM update yesterday from the airport.

Just a shame that I missed the chance to buy a few more for another quick trade! I was tempted to log on to the account to do so, but did not want to take the risk, as did not have a device with a VPN on that trip.

Anyway, one less thing for the bears to mention now. FWIW, while I always felt it was the logical outcome, as I suggested more than once in the past, you never know for sure until the outcome is confirmed.

Roll on the next update! GLA.

Maybe not stable and might indeed go lower still, but I decided to take another small tranche this morning, nevertheless.

Definitely sitting on my hands with this one now for a bit, because it was not my original intention to add further at this stage! GLA.

I guess so. Not bothered either way. My decisions are not based on chat board talk, so it makes no difference in that sense.

Hey ho.

Glad I was not the only one who spotted the religious conversion :)

I have no issue with you looking to make money, lambo, nor any other traders here (or elsewhere for that matter).

But the way you went one way, after repeated proclamations on the bear side, and then without even acknowledging a change of mind, let alone it not being based on anything whatsoever that could reasonably mean a change of opinion might be merited, is simply not cricket old chum.

My opinion here remains unchanged, because nothing material has taken place in that time. I might be wrong to remain out, or I might be right. Time will tell.

But if I ever do change my mind, or am proven to have been wrong to exit when I did, I will put my hand up.

Each to their own I guess. GLA.

Me too, Xenor. On a par with a SPAC listing, IMO. Always, always, a disaster for existing holders. Happy to be given a list of outfits where this was not the case.

Like, Xenor, I can rattle of a number of other names where CLN's were a disaster to shareholders.

They become a dog only fit for day trading, at best.

Hopefully - and indeed we should expect no less - a far better deal than something like that. And IMO, JW will deliver a satisfactory financial arrangement that will put any such fears to bed on that front. Which in turn, will underpin the investment case here, rather than a simple short term trading gig.

Anyway, each day that passes is another day closer to news. GLA.

Well, either they know exactly what they are doing, or their stupidity is only outdone by their hubris. Take your pick.

I find myself flip-flopping on occasions between thinking they are one, then thinking they are the other.

Ultimately, if the result is the same for us little people, in that sense, it does not really matter.

Unfortunately, they only need to be slightly less dumb than the majority. Which they clearly are.

If we see radical changes to voting patterns in the GE next year, away from lib/lab/con/PC and SNP, or mass, sustained protests that surpass anything in living memory, then I will gladly eat my words.

But that is a bet that I will not lose. More is the pity, in many ways.

So, we do what we can, to try and buffer ourselves and our families from whatever comes our way.

I cannot realistically see a way to avoid or buffer myself against CBDC's and the tyranny that this will usher in.

That worries me more than anything else - and there are a lot of things that should worry even relatively comfortably-off people IMO.

There is a theory that all of this monetary policy is by design, with the goal of this alone and all of the control that it would offer. Hidden in plain sight, even.

Also, as a means of 'soft landing' the pending, and inevitable, currency collapse, as happens periodically throughout history of course. Again, whether this is machiavellian mastery or more Colonel Blimp, it matters not if the result is the same.

But now I have gone down one of the rabbit holes that I said I would park :) GLA.

I agree with much of what you say. Similar time frame in mind too, although if it takes longer, I can live with that also.

Japan is IMO a very unusual set up. Even very different in many ways to other Asian nations.

From my anecdotal knowledge, in part, they have been helped by a citizenship that always buys Japanese goods and services wherever possible, even when living abroad. To a far greater extent than any other expat community I have come across.

They also remain a very cash-orientated society. Perhaps this has helped them to accrue far less personal debt than their western contemporaries on average (but that is just a muse - no data I am aware of to verify this opinion, although it is probably out there).

They also seem to save money in a similar fashion to western societies of my grandparents generation.

A few other comparative points I could also raise, but that might lead down a few rabbit holes, so will park it for now.

Ultimately, IMO they are still in a lot of trouble, even though the points I raised above are positives, to my mind.

The Japanese central bank also bought gold fairly recently, for the first time since the 1960's, if memory serves correct.

Which underpins the thesis that all of the world's central banks absolutely know the state of play. Even if they are going about things quietly. For now.

IMO, it actually increases the stagflation theory, or risk thereof. If that plays out, historically great for PMs and PM miners.

We will have to see how 'higher for longer' plays out in reality.

I guess in theory, if western economies all have debt to GDP ratios of 200% or so, then as long as the poorer nations have much worse ratios, maybe it will all come out the same in the wash?

Hard to buy into such a concept, but who knows?

Look how long Japan have got away with doing what they have since the late 1980's or so. IMO though, they are somewhat of a special case, and not easily replicable.

Especially for western nations who have taken a very different path on many social policies to that of Japan.