RE: UK CPI20 Sep 2023 20:41
You may be right. Central banks are independent in name only...a cynic might conclude.
IMO, if they do cut soon, I simply cannot see how we are not going to experience a new round of savage inflation shortly after such a move.
Unless government spending is proportionally reduced. Or productivity proportionately increases, of course. It is probably safe to suggest that neither of the above scenarios will occur. So - higher for longer inflation it will be, should they cut rates soon, IMO.
The wild card for me, as far as the US goes anyway, is the JP factor. Already rich by any metric, IMO reputation is the driver for him. Historic comparisons with either Arthur Burns or Paul Volcker await.
And where the US goes, we inevitably tend to follow.
Anyway, always fun to speculate while we wait to see what actually happens :)