Member Info for LWHL

Your first points I agree with. The cost/benefit analysis, as such, is not beyond doubt at all however.

In pure monetary terms, IMO it is likely to be the opposite of what you claim.

And regardless of that debate, freedom of choice is something that I strongly support, even though it demands discipline and self-control from the individual. See also sugar products and alcohol products etc.

The application of discipline, self-control and doing one's own research when needed, to make an informed choice on all manner of things, also takes the lobbying and marketing element largely out of the equation.

Even for children, perhaps especially for children, these same soft skills need to be taught early on.

It would make for a far better society too.

Took a small nibble more yesterday, as 60p seemed to be holding up fairly well (famous last words).

The rationale is simply that over time this one will hopefully get back to being a solid investment. But am fully prepared for, and indeed expecting, this to take time. And to have the chance to buy more lower still quite possibly, although obvious caveats apply. GLA.

Good luck to you. As long as it is money that you will never need and are genuinely comfortable losing most, or all of it potentially (a risk similar to many small cap investments), then fair enough.

I honestly cannot see how this one outfit would stand out ahead of the thousands of others for an all in gamble/investment, but if you and your fellow longs are right, then you will deserve your rewards.

I am equally confident on a few of my current positions, and was once bullish here as you are now - but never 100% in any one stock! Goodness me. GLA.

I got an email from IR a week after my question. I only checked that account yesterday, as I had pretty much given up on getting a response. The response asked me which conference in particular!

So followed up...only to get an out of office reply! I sent the link in question (even though I had already mentioned this in the original email) and will come back when they do me. Maybe before we are all pushing up the daisies :) Should have contacted Iain direct. Hey ho.

Given the macro picture today, versus January, I would be very surprised if you did not get a chance at some point to buy some Amazon shares below 100 USD, quite easily. It will certainly be one for my watch list if the next few months pan out how I think they might.

But equally, the way the markets rallied from last October...who knows? We might see something similar again.

It is why I have not gone 100% cash (or even 50% cash), in spite of my strongly bearish opinions.

Because far smarter people than me have failed to time stock market stuff, and macro data can often take far longer to play out than you would imagine. Certainly to my mind anyway.

IMO, it is baffling how long it has taken for the markets to start selling off. Have you seen how much the US national debt has risen, just in the last two weeks? Then have a look at the national debt clocks of the UK, the US and the major European nations. So many other indicators that are flashing an ever brighter shade of red too. VIX still below 20!

Keep some dry powder, chaps (and ladies of course).

IMO, the US economy is not strong. It is just less wrecked than many of the other national economies.

Cleanest shirt in the laundry basket, as I heard one pundit quote sometime a couple of years ago.

Hence in part the current flight to the USD. Which is contributing to the further hammering of most stocks right now.

Just need to hope that Brent Johnson's Dollar Milkshake Theory does not play out.

To your point: The central banks are afraid of making the same mistakes made in the 1970's. Namely multiple spikes in inflation, just when they thought it had been tamed. They want to kill inflation and keep it down.

The real failure was keeping rates at zero or as good as, for over a decade. Meaning we are now in entirely uncharted waters. I have said before what I think the only solution to this problem now is for the UK, Europe and the US, but it is a path of serious pain, so naturally the politicians will not take it. And the central bankers, with their decisions since the GFC, prove beyond reasonable doubt in my opinion that they are independent in name only. Hey ho. GLA.

This market action is very similar to last year.

Hands up whose p/f has shed a packet of late?

Ah good. Not just me, then :)

IMO, things are going to get worse, before hopefully getting better before too long a time frame.

Keep plenty of dry powder, because I think we are all going to need it in the coming months.

As long as the company keeps driving down debt and working hard on general cost controls, and as long as you have some time to exercise patience here, we should weather the storm and come out the other side strongly. It will probably require some real time discipline though. GLA.

I have not seen the latest US jobs data, but the past few ones have shown a rise in low skilled, part time employment and lower higher skilled/higher salaried roles. Which IMO tells its own story.

But if Jamie Dimon is right that their central bank is going to hike to 7%...I think the odds of an economic depression - forget recession - will be uncomfortably high. Unless they manage to miss heavily to the upside, in terms of economic productivity numbers. Or government makes significant cuts to pubic spending. A size and scope of cuts that no living person has ever experienced in the West, not some trifling tweaks here and there.

I concur with your posts and do not think you have missed anything. Anything that is within my knowledge, anyway.

But people are rightly wary of AIM stocks, especially in this part of the economic cycle.

People are rightly wary of AIM Directors too. The broken promises, misleading statements and outright lies sometimes.

Delivering Songwe will not only be financially transformational for the company. It will also underpin the reputations of senior people here (or reaffirm credibility).

And those things, once achieved, will IMO bring significant fresh investor capital here, even allowing for the macro stuff. Then the SP will naturally re-rate. AIMO. GLA.

Indeed. And that is one reason why I have remained here. I have repeatedly stated my faith in the BOD (and the CEO in particular), but I have been in enough AIM stocks, and watched horrors unfold elsewhere without thankfully being a holder (like HZM right now for example), to never be complacent in that faith.

Given the last raise was essentially pitched as being for the purpose of getting Songwe over the line, they need to achieve this goal.

Watching Bank of America closely. It is a GSIB of course, so not making any proclamations, but the price action in that one is particularly sickly, IMO.

On the other hand (and to add some balance to my own opinions on the macro stuff, which are well documented here and elsewhere), remember last October and what followed in the markets? Maybe after another week or so of the current negative action, we might see a rally. The stock market is not always representative of the state of the real world IMO.

VIX still only around 18 and would need to break above 20 to signal something potentially more meaty, from a chart perspective, IMO. GLA.

Nope. Not even a generic response. I have been entertaining some guests who are staying for a few days, so if the radio silence continues, I will follow up on Monday when I have some time to do so.

Yep. Our own Shane Warne.

Nevertheless, the market seems to be showing some patience with SOH so far today.

The frustrating thing to my mind is we clearly have something creditworthy. Just need a CEO who can fully grasp the nettle. And not make stupid decisions, like sticking the spin off on an opaque exchange, for one.

But like the other poster says, no debt and other beneficial interests, so hopefully we will get to maturity sooner or later. Just think we should be far more advanced by now, but it is what it is, I guess. GLA.

That is SOH, for you.

Underwhelming results as usual, but he will no doubt portray these results as strong.

And of course now he can buy shares on the open market. Get that wallet open, Stephen!

This company needs a serious businessman to actually deliver strong sales.

Hey ho, maybe the next update will actually show proper growth. GLA.

That is a fair point too, DSFLAT.

If anyone had sold at that time and something material had arisen in the last month, it would be an example of what I mentioned in my last post.

As things stand, we holders are circa 14% down since that comment, so you have to say the bears are winning at the time of print.

From my perspective, naturally, I am hoping for a material RNS very soon to give the 'home' team a lead in the race, but the bears are currently winning, it cannot be denied.

We will almost certainly have a very clear indication of the direction of travel by no later than end of this year IMO. Gulp! GLA.

I largely agree with your post, CJ39.

But anyone who buys or sells based on comments on a chat board really is taking additional risk.

Anecdotally, I have seen many occasions where bears disappear when a SP rises and only return on a red day.

I have been in shares where transformational news turned one like this into a multibagger in a fairly short space of time.

All the while, bears were urging people to sell on the spikes etc.

I know someone who still struggles to come to terms with having sold on chat board advice and consequently missed out on what, for them, would have meant being able to pay off their home. Now struggling with rate hikes etc. No, not me, I am grateful to be able to say.

For balance, equally true I am sure, are other people where such advice proved to be sound.

I guess what it demonstrates is that none of us actually know for certain what the outcome is going to be. Especially on AIM.

You can operate on probabilities and when it comes to AIM stocks, the bear case is more often than not likely to be valid.

These ones are never for widows and orphans and I feel sad like you, when you see people lose a lot on these types of outfits - I feel sad for me when I lose a lot on these types of outfits :) - but as PI's, we know we are playing high risk/high reward games on AIM.

I personally listen more closely to bear opinions than bull opinions, especially when I am already invested. I genuinely welcome them.

And in truth, in this market, you can probably sit on the sidelines for that transformational RNS and still get in without having to pay a silly premium on the day. I am, on a few other stocks right now, FWIW.

But for those of us who are already in and who want to see how the next few months play out, exiting now would not, IMO, represent a sensible risk/reward strategy.

Anyway, always enjoyable to share views and differing opinions in the right spirit. Good evening all.

No idea why the last three sentences printed. Ignore those. I thought I had deleted them.

The problem, CJ39, is that Kingalf has also said he has bought in here now and again in the past for a bounce etc. He has also been mirthful in some of his comments on occasions too. Which does not serve a good purpose IMO.

I am one of the LTH's who is obviously sitting on a hefty paper loss, which may of course become a hefty realised loss one day.

It was one of my early explorations on AIM, what can I say? :)

I have not recommended it to anyone and indeed have been highly critical of the BOD for a long time too. Lack of inside buying, poor comms outside of RNS material generally etc.

I might even come across as a de-ramper sometimes. I have been accused of that on a few of my holdings in the past when I have made comments that have been deemed to be negative by posters now and again.

My point is simply that we get a lot of rampers and de-rampers on these chat boards. It is what it is and comes with the package.

I have posted 'warnings' on a few of my ex holdings too, but I would never mock those who disagree. And I do not persist in my warnings either.

I also will not return to those ones, should they go to zero, to gloat.

I may post sincere commiserations to LTH's, should it happen, and even will post congratulations, if I was wrong and missed out on the rewards by exiting.

It sucks to lose money, but IMO it is healthier to try and be happy for other PI's when they get a win.

We are all tiny tadpoles in this stock market game, after all.

Anyway, enough of my ramblings and GLA - bulls and bears.

So that is perhaps why he gets some grief from others sometimes.

I have no issue with Kingalf or other bears. I am certainly not going to defend this outfit at the time of print.

But I do not understand why anyone would invest so much time posting on any stock they are not either invested in, planning to invest in, or are shorting.