Member Info for LWHL

Oh, this is certainly no Cineworld.

IMO, the worst case scenario here would be a RI if the disposal failed to generate a decent enough offer and the next update was poor also.

Given the likely high cost of capital (IMO lending terms will probably be not too dissimilar to the current range at best), then it would be an ugly number for holders at that point in time. So nothing to take too lightly either.

But that IMO is the worst case scenario and I do not think it will get that bad.

I do not think the current key shareholders will let it get that bad.

We do need an improved business update though. I would not tolerate another miss here, without seeing immediate remedial action.

No we did not all think that, or the SP would have got there, or at least close :)

Locky82: Nobody can advise you of course, but IMO it depends on how many you already hold, relative to the percentage of your current p/f.

If you feel you are already overweight - and more importantly are feeling uncomfortable - then buying more is probably unwise.

If it is a small position and you have plenty of dry powder, then that might give you a different answer.

It also depends on your time horizons, other financial obligations etc. And how much you can afford to lose, if they do not turn things around fairly soon.

That is how I try to approach such conundrums anyway. I do not always follow those 'rules' though!

I hope my post does not come across as patronising. That is not the intention.

Sometimes it can help just to go back to basics and try to look at things with fresh eyes. Or as fresh as you can manage, when obviously you are not looking in from the outside.

Anyway, hopefully tomorrow will see us break through that little resistance level in the 64's. If we can, then IMO maybe 68p ish will be the next mini test.

If it does not, I am sitting this one out for a bit, as far as a potential trade goes. The small LTH pot I am happy to leave underwater as is. For now and subject to the usual caveats. GLA.

I guess it must have just been PI's selling on the news and in particular the H2 matter.

I fully expected to see at least one TR-1 by now. That we have not, might suggest I was right.

I was so puzzled by the SP action that I held off adding to my initial purchase.

I even kept on reviewing the company material, because I was starting to question whether I had misread something big!

Feeling less of a fool at the time of print anyway :)

If we get a pull back to around the 200 DMA on no company-specific news, I will probably take that planned second tranche, but given my complete inability to read this one so far, I am going to sit and watch where this one goes for now, not add further at these levels.

If it rips on to the year high with no pause, all well and good though :)

Good question - but no, I do not think it will.

Unless the USD rips higher of course and remains significantly elevated for a sustained period of time.

If that happens, we will have bigger things to worry about than this one aspect of this one company, IMO.

I hope you are right! Not about the six month wait though :)

As long as the ship turns around in the medium term, we can enjoy the best of both worlds and an eventual SP that reflects a company that is once again a good LTH.

Which is more likely IMO if GS can deliver for us on that sale. GLA.

Not sure about that, Fishb0n3.

Although it has been interesting watching the live price action this morning so far.

Am going to jump in for another trade if we revisit the 60p territory, although maybe the 62p ish will start to form a strong support level now? From a short term trading perspective, buying right now feels like a 50/50 gamble.

Totally different to that of an investor perspective though, in case anyone thinks I am trying to de-ramp :)

Fingers crossed they get a good result. In this market, I think that ball park figure would be impressive.

It would start to repair some reputational damage too (BOD reputations), albeit not back to break even on that front.

The markets might want to see the numbers in black and white before 'forgiving' this company. Certainly if we can get close to 2 billion USD for it, that would be IMO pretty transformational - but equally important to my mind, is how they would put that capital to work.

Personally, I would like to see a big chunk of it used to pay down the debt pile, but slightly concerned they might go on an acquisition spree.

The trouble is, the economies of the UK and to a certain extent the US, are highly dependent on high property prices.

Which is why so many politicians for years now have moved heaven and earth to keep it afloat, introducing ever more foolish initiatives that have continued to inflate that particular bubble, IMO.

A return to 2020 levels would mean an average decline of circa 20%. Average property prices have risen more than 70% since 2013.

Take a bow, said politicians - and the BoE, whose 0% interest rates for more than a decade are the sole reason for this runaway train.

But good luck convincing most homeowners that they have benefited in this fashion. Most people I know fundamentally think that it was their skill, rather than 'luck' that has given them this current degree of equity. 'Luck' because it will IMO sooner or later carry a hefty hidden price tag.

Especially the older cohort in society who seem to forget MIRAS when they talk of 17% interest rates in their day (which did not last long anyway) - or the fact that even 10% interest rates on a 20K property was buttons compared to 4% on a 300K place for example. Or the fact that many bought on one family income.

I am not mentioning this to create an inter-generational pile on, but it is a huge problem.

IMO, Japanese-style inter-generational mortgages will become the norm here fairly soon. That is the only non-radical measure that can be taken to keep the ponzi scheme going for perhaps quite a while longer.

Either way, it is not a problem that affects me personally, so I am not just speaking as an envious bystander who cannot get on the housing ladder etc.

The state sooner or later will probably steal it all from us anyway....but maybe we will be happy.... :)

Anyway, highest levels of private debt on record means that sooner or later spending will have to come down. But not usually before Xmas is out of the way.

So many moving parts and variables right now. Never a dull moment!

Not sure that rents are going to come down much, either here or across the Pond. I can see a continued challenging market for sellers though, as those sustained (fairly) high rates continue to squeeze household budgets and abilities to borrow etc.

Perhaps a stagnant market, rather than a serious correction though, as many home owners are mortgage-free, so lots will only sell at a potential loss in the event of the three D's. Negative equity only matters if you need to refinance or to sell.

IMO and as I have said at various points in the past few years, the politicians and the central bankers are pretty much equally to blame for this mess our nations are in.

The former for irresponsible spending over decades. The latter for irresponsible interest rate policy from 2009 until last year. End the Fed. End the BoE :)

Not only is war inflationary, but it can also stimulate stock market activity.

We might actually get a small market rally now, including in this name.

All for entirely bad reasons of course, but it is something with a historical precedent.

We will see if such history repeats itself in the coming weeks/months. GLA.

Completely agree. I have a number of PM holdings due to my bearish sentiment on a number of macro matters.

Conflict being only one of them.

I can honestly say I would rather gold was not at such elevated levels due to both conflict and the state of our fiat currencies.

But sadly I think both are only going to deteriorate further, at least for a few years anyway, and so hopefully PM's will provide a small degree of a hedge if this is indeed going to play out.

This stock market stuff means absolutely nothing, let's be honest.

Anyway, we can but hope for some kind of resolution soon. However unlikely a long term solution will actually be, all things considered, IMO.

My greatest hope of all to be wrong on that one. GLA.

PI's are bottom of the food chain. It was ever thus.

I share similar thoughts to you, Paddyboy1.

Comparisons, even with early 2021, let alone before then, are no longer relevant to where we are now in the economic cycle IMO.

But if we are being too pessimistic, it should become clear fairly soon.

And I will be the first to come on here and congratulate those posters who have shared their higher estimate valuation opinions.

I would be delighted to have underestimated BOD acumen and wider market appetites for such a valuation!

Well, if they do manage to get something akin to the higher numbers that some have suggested represent fair value for the pending disposal, in this market, then I will certainly not complain. In fact it might even give me pause for thought, insofar as current impressions of said BOD.

Like everyone else, I want to see the best possible price for a disposal, or indeed for an outright sale.

I really wanted to see the BOD just deliver on the previous RNS material though, but they failed, cut the only recently reinstated dividend, making them look unprofessional in the process, and IMO have lost market trust and investor confidence as the cherry on top.

Which is why I am now of the mindset that I am, when not long ago this was a planned LTH component of the p/f.

I have not even been a holder here for that long. I can only imagine the frustration of proper LTHs right now!

I just think that a recalibration is taking place right now (see recent IPO action, like ARM, across the Pond), which means a lot of people are going to have to manage lower expectations. At the very least, for a couple of years anyway.

As for NAVs....really not much better a guidance tool than a broker rating, IMO.

Almost certain, JG68.

Paddyboy1: I was referring to a total take out.

I would want to be notified of any such low ball bid, even a quid, although I would support the rejection of anything that low.

Likewise for 120p. Although 150p....I would vote to accept, at the time of print.

Because I do not see this BOD getting us back to that level, let alone higher, via their own efforts, to be blunt.

In this climate, over a multi-year period, maybe. Or just as feasible, taking us down to lower levels than we currently sit. That is a risk that IMO cannot be dismissed out of hand.

Also IMO, that kind of price would be very good for the buyer in a relatively short period of time (subject to good management of course), and adequate for Mobico shareholders, given the hash made of the business in the past few years. And the BOD credibility gap, some might feel.

Especially in this macro climate.

I agree. It is not a screaming bargain at this level, because we have a management team that has many question marks over their capabilities right now.

In a credit environment that is particularly challenging for all debt-laden outfits right now.

How effective their negotiation skills might be when it comes to the matter of the potential disposal. Not to mention their effectiveness in making those additional cost savings, while improving revenue growth, as cited in the update.

But I trust that a poor deal will be blocked by the big holders here, so hopefully that is one risk that can be removed from the equation.

Jury out on the cost savings and revenue growth initiatives though, IMO.

The more I ponder it, the more I hope we see an outright bid, sooner rather than later.

That may not offer a good return to some LTH's, but if the next update also disappoints, then we are almost certainly looking at another fairly material drop in the SP - and a far bigger mountain for a new CEO to climb (on the assumption that at that point a new CEO would be a given).

Selling it off cheaply, no. But at the time of print, this company is not in financial distress - things are far from rosy, of course - but they are not on the cusp of ruin.

No thanks to the BOD, whose management is very much under scrutiny, IMO.

I am sure financial savings can be found in the ranks of the senior management team, for a start.

And to a point, fares can be raised also, even in this climate.

It is not like most of their customer base will switch to cars for transportation if eg further 5% price hikes are implemented.

Anyway, personally, I am hoping for a takeover or a new CEO. Or both :)

In the meantime, looking to see if further short term trades present themselves while we wait.

Although given all the geopolitical stuff going on right now, next week might be one for extreme caution on that front. GLA.

It will be interesting to see if it holds/builds on this sudden rise into next week.

Along with the spike in oil prices, it certainly speaks of an ill geopolitical wind right now.

Agree with your thesis on the potential for oil.

I bought some CVX from the profits I took on SWBI yesterday.

Not that I think the latter is a 'sell' right now, but I wanted to take a reasonably meaty position in the former, without using dry powder. And a 23% return, plus a dividend on top, for a few weeks 'work' is quite satisfactory in this market, IMO :)

Technically, I could still see oil selling off at some point in the short term, and am ready to take more CVX if that scenario plays out, but the ME factor could indeed blow such technicals out of the water.

If things settle down soon (we all can but hope), I remain bullish on oil for the medium term at least anyway.

Not going to comment on the politics of this latest conflict. The sad reality is that the suffering for many people is far from over in that part of the world.

And it does also represent an escalation in the potential for even more serious conflict that is far more global in nature.

I would also add that IMO, if you are bullish on oil, you should also perhaps consider uranium and precious metals. Not investment advice of course, same for my naming of the above stocks also not constituting a recommendation etc.

Good results from JPM and Wells Fargo. Not bad by Citi either, from the brief glance I took earlier. BAC is the one I am waiting for though. Good weekend all.