Member Info for LWHL

He appears to do it on a number of chat boards, from his posting history. Time waster, IMO.

Anyway, I was busy this afternoon, and also forgot to register for it previously too.

Assume I will have got the email from IR a while ago, so will have a look and catch up with it at some point this week - but thanks to those who did attend and have posted some commentary here. GLA.

Well thanks, MrWolf. A good week in the markets and more importantly, on the domestic front, although next week may be a different story on either or both fronts! :)

Hope you and yours are in good form too.

To the poster mentioning dividend payment: both IG and AJ Bell seemed to pay up promptly. It surprises me that there seems to be such a wide range of differing experiences when it comes to this matter.

Have a good weekend all and hopefully a prosperous week ahead too.

Am surprised that nobody has commented on here since the last update.

IMO, it was a fairly good update, with a 'better' level of revenue decline than I had anticipated.

Still want to see evidence of improved cost controls and more data on TT performance next time.

Also hoping they get a real heavyweight to replace June (who I wish a return to good health, but whose departure, from a commercial POV, I am relaxed about).

What was your take, Ace?

Yeah, if I had known what the trading desks and culture was like when I was a kid, I would have probably gone down that route myself.

Equally likely that I would not be here today...but it would have been fun while it lasted, no doubt :)

I forget now what percentage of revenue the fine equated to. I seem to recall it being very, very small in the grand scheme of things, though.

I heard someone once suggest that the debt to the original Mr Morgan is still being repaid, after he bailed the US out during the Wall Street Crash of 1929. Entirely tongue in cheek of course and I myself hold no opinion in either direction on such a muse :)

Yep. It is indeed hopium, unless/until proven otherwise.

At least multiple insiders put their hands in their pockets with this one. Unlike so many AIM outfit BODs.

Just a waiting game now. Should not be too much longer, IMO. For good or for bad.

Still backing Iain and the team, FWIW, but not a recommendation etc. GLA.

He has not advocated anything that I have read. Only given an indication of what he sees from the charts, and occasionally his own positions and targets here, from time to time.

Never buy or sell on anything you read on these chat boards though. Its just for fun!

If he is, I need to get one myself. His track record here is frankly impressive :)

I agree. The markets will start to/are starting to assume that the next step will be rate cuts. Which I think is not going to happen until inflation returns to no more than 3%, probably spanning at least a couple of prints. Maybe sub 3%.

Well, hopefully no rate cuts before that point. Otherwise, one scenario would be a market melt up, which in the circumstances would be very bad news, even though the likes of us would probably do very well from it.

I expect the central bankers will try to dampen the current enthusiasm with hawkish language (because a rising stock market will not help in the battle to cool inflation). I think the markets will shrug off such words.

So, could be good for trading in the short term. By which I mean a few weeks, even a few months maybe.

Which would suit me just fine. VIX currently sub 14. Just need the DXY to to come down a bit and that will be particularly beneficial to some of my core holdings. Not that it is ever wise to look too far ahead of course.

Menawhile, good luck to current BARC holders. If you can stay above the 200 DMA today and tomorrow, then that sets you up very nicely for a further rise IMO.

Well, I thought it was a good RNS.

Perhaps the market is simply focused on Songwe right now?

Either way, a fairly relaxed holder, at the time of print. GLA.

I think - if successful of course - it will be much better than 14p, but well short of the pounds per share that some LTH's would have paid.

For those investors, even early/mid 20p territory would probably feel no different to 14p.

That might be too conservative a range of course, but equally, to avoid running the risk of coming across as ramping, it might be too optimistic too.

Presumably not long to find out now, one way or the other. GLA.

From the tone of your responses, it seems that you are as insulated from the consequences of the high inflation we have had (and continue to have), as I am.

Only I seem to be more aware of it than you do. And perhaps a little more sympathetic too.

You clearly have no idea how damaging 'a bit higher for a bit longer' rates are going to be for so many individuals and companies.

I never said that there was going to be an apocalyptic event by December, but if the stock markets remain around the current levels at that point, then I will happily put my hand up to being wrong, because I am expecting a more notable correction than we have seen so far since I made that comment.

I do remember that statement. It may have been in response to having been baited by you at the time, actually.

I also did not miss your point about market recovery. You actually seem to have misunderstood what I said, although I am not quite sure how.

Anyway, this is turning into a derail now, which I am sure none of the other posters want to see, so I will leave it there.

Well, let's just hope that inflation does indeed come down - and remain down - soon. Although achieving an average of 2% may well be something that needs to be discarded for years, at the very least.

I agree that from the talk coming from the US Fed and the BoE, they do seem to be giving the impression that they know they cannot hike much more without causing absolute carnage, worse even than what I think the economic data in said 6-9 month period will show, even factoring in an imminent pause scenario.

The evidence of the full effects of the more recent raises are still some months off too, of course.

Where we perhaps differ, is I see a lot more pain ahead before the next round of 'green shoots' recovery.

As I keep on saying though, it is easier to make money in a bull market than a bear market (as a 'long' rather than a shorter), so I will be delighted if it turns out I have been too bearish.

Above all, different opinions are what makes a market and what makes these chat boards enjoyable platforms for communication. GLA.

YOY figure worth thinking about, not just the core MOM metric.

I agree though that the markets will reverse before the recovery.

It is not me who is behind the game, IMO. But, we shall see.

And it does not mean that I am avoiding taking on trades simply based on my macro opinions, so do not worry :)

An entirely unsurprising CPI miss across the Pond. Our own miss next week will be confirmed, unless a miracle occurs IMO.

No market sell off yet though, but goodness me, how bad is the economic data going to look in 6-9 months time?!

No way can they drop rates until they get on top of inflation. Even if they 'only' hold them at the current level, that is going to be really tough going for millions of individuals and hundreds of thousands of businesses, large and small.

Hey ho. GLA.

If you think we are near the top of the interest rate cycle and indeed that rates are going to come down soon, then IMO you are probably wrong.

I can certainly see a pause on rate hikes happening shortly, but not cuts. Inflation remains far too high and the BoE have an appalling track record on forecasting, so I am not banking on them being right about inflation by the end of the year for example.

But if you are right, then retaining an interest in IM, subject to us being able to secure very attractive terms with a big hitting partner, might be the better long term play.

I remain firmly in favour of a full sale, because a company that is debt free in this environment is not to be sniffed at.

However, I am fully supportive of JW and whatever his decision will be, is likely to be one that I will be happy to defer to.

It is a nice problem to have anyway :)

Indeed. Not an impressive performance, it must be said.

Trying to decide what a good price to add might be.

Sub 60p and I will take a few more I think.

The next update better show some improvement, or some changes might be required. GLA.

Actually, in all probability, it is controlled by those who control the government, but you could argue that is simply splitting hairs :)

CPI print shortly. Ready to add a few here, should we see some weakness. GLA.

The chart looks primed for another test of the 200 DMA soon, IMO, but time will tell.

Not looking to add at this point, but a fairly relaxed holder at the time of print, even though the MDA saga continues to drag on and on.

US is tomorrow. If the print comes in hot, I am expecting the markets to drop lower. If this happens, I am even more confident that our own print will be a miss, too.

Not that I particularly trust the CPI data. IMO, it is more generous than the real figure would be, but that is neither here nor there, for the purposes of this.