Member Info for LWHL

Like other miners, it is all about the AISC. We need to see this one show real progress on cost controls, in addition to good production numbers. High gold and silver spot prices are all well and good, but the miners need to be demonstrating strong profit levels.

Still heavily invested here and elsewhere in the PM miner space, and I think we are going to see higher gold prices and hopefully 28-30 USD silver prices later in 2024 - but only profit is sanity, at the end of the day.

IMO, and with very few exceptions, the reason is simply because this is just an unpopular sector right now.

It will come back into fashion (so to speak!) at some point. It just depends on your time frame.

For ASOS in particular, they first need to show good progress in debt reduction and hopefully no profit warning (as some bears are suggesting will be revealed in the next update).

It could be a case of simply surviving this year and hopefully green shoots at some point in 2025.

But I am of a very bearish macro mindset right now, so could be entirely wrong about how the economics/discretionary spend will play out this year.

And I do not see MA or the other big holders simply dumping and running away here, even if the above bearish scenarios play out.

So for those with good, deep knowledge of this particular name and sector (unlike me), it could be one of those that fit the pound cost averaging model of investing, as long as you have a strong stomach and some patience.

Indeed. RSI approaching oversold levels though, although not sure how useful such indicators are for a micro cap.

Might be tempted to add a few to the (small) current trading tranche if we see low 9's/high 8's again, but the current level does not appeal to me. Especially as this does not look like simple PI selling. Could be something, could just as easily be nothing.

Disappointing RNS - I thought it would be another increased holding one :)

Not yet. Looking closely though and toying with setting a buy limit for 395p ish.

I want to see how the US fares in early trading. Both our and their markets are overbought right now. Potentially some fresh profit taking this week IMO, as they are into a new tax year, which could mean an (overdue) correction occurs in the coming days. Which naturally we will follow IMO, irrespective of how different our index valuations are.

I am also mindful of the competitor updates later this week and next week.

If they are good, that should have a very positive impact on the SP here. If they disappoint, I expect to see us drop below 395p, perhaps back into that 380p area even.

And it feels like a toss of a coin right now on that front, so I am currently collecting splinters from this fence-sitting :)

I agree. In fact, when you start to see lots of positive tips and articles in the MSM...it is usually time to consider taking profits :)

I am inclined to agree, because we are not moving with the market at the time of print.

Fingers crossed this trend continues! GLA.

I think it is no more than simply moving with the general market this morning. Nothing sinister like that.

However, to my simplistic eye, the chart now looks a little bearish and a retest of the 50 DMA an increased possibility.

Nothing of note for those with a longer term horizon in mind, though.

I would want to see it break 85p and hold, personally. Cannot rule out a double top yet.

I think 75p on no news would only happen with a market correction. Which might happen of course.

Meanwhile, I think I will take a few more for the longer term pot if we revisit circa 78p. GLA.

I would keep the return fees. Maybe a certain number of free returns per year for top customers, but not as it was before. Those people who buy loads of stuff and return most of it...very annoying. Perhaps give their details to the just stop oil mob! :)

Meanwhile, with fresh eyes, I see that my initial post last night was right and my corrected post was wrong. Both dividend stuff and updates this week. I wish you had a delete function on this platform.

Anyway, the chart here still looks solid at the time of print. It would be good if ASOS issued an update along the lines of awareness that some news outlets were suggested they would provide a January update - either to confirm or to refute this.

Ignore the last comment. Both of those are interim dividend dates for Next and JD Sports. It has been a long day! Time for bed soon I think :)

The only place I see it mentioned is that IG article that the other poster first cited. It is not on the ASOS website, nor the financial diary on LSE right here. Nor the recent RNS's either.

We do have updates from Next and JD Sports this week and some other similar types the week after.

Not to mention a lot of important domestic and international macro data in the days and weeks ahead, too.

All of which may influence the SP here, for good or for bad.

But nothing stopping ASOS from giving a January update anyway. IG may be mistaken, or ASOS have been a little bit sloppy in not at least updating there own website.

Not sure I agree that the SP will be dead for a long time if the next update is weak though. I could imagine a hefty drop initially in such an event, perhaps a boardroom clear out, but then I think the company would be properly in play.

Against that: top three of the visited websites in November. That is impressive IMO. Of course, it needs to translate into sales and those competitor updates are going to be keenly reviewed.

I was banging on about the need to raise fares a while ago. Especially after the bumper salary increases that they gave to drivers earlier in 2023. I am sure it can be done, without going outside of the government funding agreement. If not, renegotiation is required, IMO.

Anyway, does anyone have a good idea of what Systematica's average price is? I have been reviewing short tracker but feeling too lazy to calculate the average, based on their various short trade prices since their first declared short to the most recent (small) reduction.

Quite a range of prices, but am I right in thinking it is probably in the region of a quid or so?

Just wondering if they might choose to take decent profits very soon and close out fully, rather than risk having to eat a loss from a current position of strength, in the event we see continued momentum in the SP next week, or of course a bid.

Yeah, I saw that too, but nothing on the corporate section of the ASOS website, unless I have overlooked it.

Anyway, happy New Year everyone. I trust some of you had a more exciting NY eve than I did. Barely stayed awake till midnight :)

Absolutely, but more because it could lead to an even greater escalation and enhanced risk of a proper global conflict. Especially when you throw in those recent comments by XJ regarding 'reunification'.

Quite frankly, inflation will be the least of our worries if that scenario plays out.

But that is macro stuff. For now, at the time of print, the technicals IMO look good here for a retest of the 200 DMA fairly soon.

Beyond that, at this stage, no idea, but if Cosman keep adding, then I could still see this one bucking an overbought market and putting that test in.

Will likely know at some point in January whether this comment is going to age well, or not!

Happy New Year all.

Thanks sj74. I think a revisit of the 395p region on no news would be too tempting to avoid another nibble, but I did wonder whether they might give an (unscheduled) January update. It was actually this prospect that led me to my decision.

If trading has been good, then an update IMO would be a no-brainer decision for the BOD to take, well before the AGM.

And in that scenario, it would IMO be a 'sail away' event, and probably goodbye to the 4 quid level (on top of a few scampering short closures too, I would expect).

I decided to close out my final tranche the other day. So you can probably look forward to an immense break out when the markets re-open :)

Still very much on my radar, and shorts continuing to reduce means that it was probably a premature call on my part, especially if there are going to be no further updates before the February AGM.

If I do not get the chance to return, should this one indeed sail away, then good luck to you all and all the best for 2024.

Given the amount of time and shareholder cash that has gone into Songwe, I doubt many LTH's would agree with you.

I do however agree that I would far rather it be sold off, rather than us carrying it on after MDA approval. Unless we get an amazing funding deal that does not destroy existing shareholders.

But I guess the politicians meant the end of 2024, rather than 2023 for this decision?

Silly us for mistaking their words, but on the plus side, we have more time to play with I suppose :)

Well, in an article in the Sunday Times, she is listed as one of 'the blue-chip bosses walking a tightrope'.

IMO she has had long enough now, so hopefully the next update will be a good one for long-suffering shareholders.

Or if not, hopefully changes will be coming in 2024. Happy New Year all.