Member Info for LWHL

I am no fan of the Tories, but you are going to be disappointed if you think the red mob are going to bring fiscal prudence to the table, let alone balancing the books. Trust me, they do not have a clue either. Their playbook is not going to make any positive difference whatsoever. They are not going to cut spending and they are not going to get control of our spiralling debt problems either. They are also not going to increase the tax take by much, if at all either.

Just because the Tories have become irresponsible big state spenders, does not mean that the other lot are going to do what is necessary to fix this mess. And you want even more freedom of movement than we already have in the UK?

You cannot fix the demographic issues we face with more of the same failed policies. Unless you advocate an approach like the UAE takes to immigration (and deportations), in which case, sure, it might start to work fairly effectively after a couple of turbulent years.

For all the benefits that many of us here enjoyed from EU membership (given all of us on this chat board are likely to be either wealthy or at least fairly comfortably off), the EU was - and still is - its own worst enemy.

Brexit was botched, but I believe it was a symptom, not the cause.

As I often say, the solution to our problems can be found with less government, not more!

Anyway, we agree on the topic of the BOD here :) Hopefully good inflation data will be revealed and then maybe we can break out of this range and on towards the 200 DMA soon...

Yep. I nearly bailed after that. And would not have had an issue if the BOD had been shown the exit either. I have seen boardroom clear outs happen for less.

However, that is in the past. No more failures should be tolerated though.

Good points. I would also add that after the dividend fiasco, this BOD is on a degree of borrowed time IMO. Another update that surprises to the downside, and I am not sure that Cosmen or the other big boys will continue to remain entirely supportive.

I have been pondering that scenario too, Mary, although I never like to look too far ahead when it comes to trading prospects. That is more for the 'investment' hat.

Although my investment here was started with the expectation of having bought around or near the bottom....which proved to be somewhat wrong :)

78p on no company-specific news would suit me just fine. Would likely be back with another trading tranche like a shot if it comes to pass.

Agree, although hard to tell with this one right now. I thought we would struggle to crack 85p, but did so fairly quickly.

Anyway, 90p plus is now likely, because I have taken profits on my side pot trade, a couple of pence ahead of my planned exit point :)

Just back to holding the longer term pot for now. GLA.

Let's test the theory: what is your take on the closing price today, based on L2?

Agree with holding your nerve with this one (subject to the obvious caveats!) but do not bank on lower interest rates just yet. If they start dropping them before at least several inflation prints of 2% or very close to, then a second high inflationary wave will follow, IMO. Also think the macro picture remains dreadful, but the stock market will do its own thing for a while yet IMO, so do not conflate the two.

Whether good times or bad, people still need bricks. Hence my own retained position here. Fingers crossed the next update demonstrates this faith has been justified! GLA.

One option JG (not investment advice of course!) is to have a LTH and a separate trading pot. Takes the edge off the frustrations that market volatility can induce and IMO can also quell the impatient tendencies :) Especially in a market like this one.

Need to be comfortable with position sizes of course and you then run the risk of increasing potential losses if you get it wrong, so not a dead cert. Works for me personally, and I think this is a similar strategy to Mary and many others.

Had a few nice little side pots in some of my longer term planned positions, like Mobico. I would otherwise have just kept sitting in a paper loss in that one, had I just bought and bottom-shelved it. Particularly frustrating with non-dividend stocks IMO.

Anyway, I have held WG before and it has remained on my radar. Not planning on buying back in prior to the next update now. Will take a view then, although of course I might not get the chance if they give holders good cheer. GLA.

Agree. In principle, it should not affect guidance. Especially if they are working hard with the cost cutting initiatives, as they alluded to previously.

IMO, it is also unlikely to influence the Frasers/MA strategy, which is one of the key factors that keeps me drawn to this one like the moth to a flame :)

US markets did well today. VIX also down. Same for USD (a little) and oil prices too.

Bodes well for UK markets in the morning IMO, but naturally anything can happen at any moment in time, so not investment advice etc. GLA.

Easily filled. GLA.

Put a small buy order in for 381p. GLA.

Indeed. Lots (most?) currencies go the way of the dodo eventually. Always as a result of political mismanagement and failure.

I forgot to add in my last post, 10 of the 11 previous (US) jobs reports have been revised lower. Like Peter Schiff (who I must credit with this stat), I also think the next few will likely see downward revisions also.

Which feeds the smoke and mirrors narrative, which I think quite a few of us here share the opinion of. Leading to some accusing us of being 'nutters' or similar. None so blind...etc.

I really cannot see a way out of this mess for any of the major economies.

For the US in particular, I think I read somewhere that in 1971 (or thereabouts) they were the biggest creditor in the world. Now they are the biggest debtor.

I agree that the interest rates are one of the key factors propping up the USD right now. Trouble is, this is also resulting in (not so) slowly creating conditions that normally would look like a nailed on debt default, sooner or later.

There is IMO only one solution, which applies equally to the UK, the EU and probably much of the rest of the West too: significantly less government spending. Musk/Twitter style.

There is no silver bullet, but this is the best available option now left, involving IMO the least amount of collateral damage (although it would still result in plenty).

But as that scenario is not going to happen in an orderly fashion, it will IMO happen in a disorderly fashion at some point.

But probably not before this election cycle is finished...

They have been spinning the data for a while now though. The amount of government jobs has been the only real growth area, along with low wage sector employment, in the last few updates.

The latter presumably brings in little to no tax benefit (although presumably less of a welfare drain on their society than would otherwise be the case). The former in the main is going to be a total net drain on state finances.

Meanwhile, and again going back several updates now, higher paying jobs in the private sector continue to reduce.

But - it is an election year. Therefore, hopefully we will continue to enjoy stock market conditions that remain entirely detached from reality, for a little while longer.

Make more profits, build a bigger cash reserve for as long as possible. Then start to buy certain names more heavily when the VIX has caught up with the macro realities.

I did. That was some unreal action. Volatile times to continue, I think.

I see the 520's I called the other day came to pass. Naturally, since I never set a buy order for it, and have had my attention elsewhere, so entirely missed it today. Sigh.

Well, I took another small position around 385p ish today (pure gamble, technicals nowhere to be seen!) and another, slightly larger trading tranche over at JD this morning. Set sell orders for both and will wait to see how they pan out. Good weekend all.

Also bear in mind that they know where stop losses are placed, so IMO a lot of those shares in the low 370's got picked up today, as one example. Lots of traders will have lost their shares by this method today. And every day, across the entire stock market.

I use them myself on occasion, but not always, for this exact reason. Until very recently, I was using it here regularly for buying (and then selling). Can't beat them join them etc.

Not sure how effective it would be if every PI here set sell orders for very high prices, but it would at least potentially confuse the algos briefly :)

Meanwhile nothing has really changed. We know Next did well and JD Sports poorly (although when you think about it, not really that badly IMO). Am pondering on that one actually for a trade. Will follow the early action tomorrow and make a decision. Stamp duty to consider though.

ASOS draws out the gambler in me and the SP action continues to be a trader's dream, so I might yet jump back in, perhaps against my better judgement. GLA.

Indeed, and while I would have preferred to have seen us continue to rise quickly to 90p on thin air, IMO the technicals over the past few days suggest a solid base formation taking shape.

We are also, at the time of print, getting close to the oversold area on the RSI.

Obviously tomorrow is another day and no certainties etc, but fingers crossed, cautiously positive here still.