Member Info for LWHL

The February strategic update will be an interesting one to watch, according to the Sunday Times ('The blue chip bosses walking a tightrope').

This one remains on my radar, although happy to sit on the sidelines for now.

Happy New Year all.

You are absolutely right not to get carried away, JG. And it is indeed only speculation at this stage too.

But we also have recent evidence of some stake-building here and from a chart perspective, IMO things are looking quite good right now. No certainties though, naturally.

No idea what price would be enough to get the green light here, but all of the recent activity has tempted me back in for a side pot trade.

Core holding still in the red, but no plans to sell that (subject to the obvious caveats). Hoping for 90p or so for this little trade. Probably best you all run for the hills now :) GLA.

Yeah, those lovely big green candles a couple of minutes after the bell bode well for today.

One of those occasions where I will be delighted to be wrong on a short term call :)

Going to be interesting watching the volume today. Usually you would expect thin trading at this time of the year, but if we can see some heavy activity, that would strengthen the bull case on that RNS IMO.

Regardless though, and as I have maintained all the time I have been an investor here, IMO, this is a right place, right time company. A comment that I hope stands the test of time! GLA.

Xenor: Until we get the fully done and dusted deal, then the markets will likely price this degree of uncertainty in.

Which would be entirely reasonable, but no cause for panic either.

The type of posters that you are referring to are more likely to do the FUD thing at that point, because (on the assumption the deal is a good one for shareholders) then anyone short will likely need to get out PDQ and those looking to buy in will probably have to try their luck in multiple auctions.

I am calling a red day here. And I will take more if we see a particular number hit.

Not selling any unless/until 18p, so if I am wrong and we get a strong, positive market reaction, then I will take some of the trading tranche off the table then.

GLA as we see what happens shortly...

I am inclined to agree with you Mary, but without specific numbers outlined in black and white, I think we are going to see a red day here.

Tempted to join you on adding on dips (if the market takes the update badly) but already have a slightly bigger holding than originally planned. Decisions, decisions! GLA.

It is the job of JAY employees to do that. Not shareholders or those on the sidelines watching.

But ultimately the market will tell us what the number is, presumably sooner or later.

It is also an impossible question that you asked of me, Ashton. I am not inside, nor an employee of one of the mining outfits who would have most, or all, of the necessary information to conduct a pricing model for such things.

I did not start the subject of valuation. Some posters have suggested a range of possibilities to this question, all essentially guesses, just like mine was, which followed afterwards. It was not instigated by me.

I am sorry that you are disappointed with this answer, but I guess you also do not have figures yourself, otherwise you would have shared them here.

For non-disko stuff, I am inclined towards zero, or a number that might as well be zero, insofar as shareholder value is concerned.

Just my opinion and because you seem so keen to extract a precise number from me.

We are going round in circles now though, so let us park this until further company news. GLA.

The worst case scenario is they fail to sell any of them. Rio and the other big players have had plenty of opportunity to buy Dundas over the years, but have not done so. Same with the other, far less advanced, assets.

We only found out quite recently why they never took up Dundas. Quite a different picture was painted in that Dundas kitchen sink RNS by RE, compared to what shareholders had been led to believe by RM in prior years.

Add in conditions that look like a fire sale (as another poster suggested the other day) and we are hardly going to see them command top dollar, even assuming they actually do carry some material value, all combined.

How much estimated value would you give to them Ashton?

I can assure you, Ashton that the macro bigger picture is very much at the front and centre of my thoughts.

It has been for several years now, and is the primary reason why commodity stocks make up the bulk of my p/f at the time of print. Albeit mostly mature, proven and profitable outfits now.

Whether I am being unduly pessimistic about the revenue the pending asset sales here will generate, well, perhaps. We shall see.

HZM and even SHG (as potential bad case or good case scenarios) come to mind - neither of which appear (again at the time of print) to be good for LTH's in those outfits. Yes, I have seen what HZM did today. The comment still stands. Worse case scenario: CHF.

It will be interesting to see how much they get for the sale of these assets.

I have no idea what the potential value for these might be. Not least because trust/credibility concerns in the management for many people is likely to be somewhat low. For sensible reasons covered before, so as not to labour the point.

I am however fairly confident that it will be appreciably lower than they have, over the years, led investors to believe the potential values to be.

The evidence for this suggestion can be found in various RNS's and interviews in prior years. But no doubt it will be explained away when the time comes.

Anyway, not sure I see great wisdom in having multiple listings for 49% of a potential asset which is years away (at best) from production - even on the assumption that Kobold give a terrific update whenever they do. And on the assumption that it is not another duster, seemingly in the fashion of Dundas. Which I still cannot believe some people can overlook, to be honest.

If I were still a shareholder here, I would be hoping for a pay day from Kobold, because quite frankly, IMO, your potential returns will be gobbled up quickly, if this company continues independently. This is an assumption based on how they have spent money in the fashion that they have over the years.

Last post from me here now, until Disko news. GLA.

Fair enough :) Should the time ever come where AI gets that good...shares and all other financial assets will be the least of our concerns!

Totally agree that as a one asset outfit, significant headcount reductions should be confirmed. And IMO, by early/mid January really.

Still think they would benefit from having a CEO though, even if it is only one of the NEDs 'wearing the hat', but that is a matter for shareholders to push for, if they agree.

Enjoy the rest of the holiday period and good luck for 2024.

My apologies. I see that now. So there is currently no CEO here? I assume there must be an interim/stand in for the post?

On a separate note and further to a post made by another commentator here, I assume you are not a bot? FWIW, that has not been my impression, and is not meant as a jibe either, so I hope the question will not cause offence.

I merely posted a response to an earlier comment from a few days ago that was directly 'for the attention of' me.

I only just saw it this morning. And thought it polite to reply.

I have no need to 'ramp' or 'de-ramp' anything.

Perhaps you might also find a better use for your time than jumping on the comments of posters who simply do not echo your bullish sentiments here, and who furthermore were not even seeking your view?

You have essentially butted into a 'conversation' that you were not even involved in :)

Happy Christmas anyway.

UFO, yes. Not the other one, which I am entirely unfamiliar with. So will take your word for it.

Ultimately, my opinion here is based on the many reasons and explanations that I have shared on this chat board.

Some disagree. Time will tell if this time will be different. But IMO, if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck etc. GLA.

Happy Xmas Ashton. I hope you and your family had an enjoyable day.

In response to your post directed to me, the reason I suggested people review the material going back several years is because IMO (and clearly that of a number of others) this will paint a clear and useful picture.

Ignoring everything that went on before, and only focusing on Disko now, would be something that I could understand better, if the entire BOD had been cleared out and you had an entirely new management team.

A very small one too, given the focus is only going to be on one thing now and where Kobold are apparently going to be doing all of the heavy lifting. Musk/Twitter style headcount reductions, surely?

Instead, you have RM back as CEO (this is where, to repeat the point, all of the company updates and interviews from circa 2018 onwards is a useful exercise) and Bo still employed in some capacity. I mean...I really do not know what to say about that.

OK - RM bought a decent chunk the other day. And now he is CEO again, he will not be able to update the market in such a tardy fashion with future buys and sells (as per his last non-CEO holdings RNS which I mentioned at the time).

However trivial in itself this may seem, given he is not new to this game, I think that is another black mark/red flag right there. Albeit a tiny one when compared to the many others. Dundas probably being the biggest, to my mind. All on RM's watch.

He has not announced a U-turn on Dundas, so presumably the first kitchen sink RNS that RE issued was not based on falsehoods.

Anyway, let's see how much they get for selling off all the other non-disko stuff.

Stuff which they raised money from shareholders for and diluted further in the process. Some quite recently too, no less.

The range of assets that they spent years touting as one of the investment cases for the company, on top of the 'flagship' Dundas. Not having all eggs in one basket etc.

Anyway, I presume a Kobold update must be due soon. I have not been following this one as closely as I did when I was a holder, so you probably know more about the latest on that front than I do. GLA.

The only certain winners in that particular scenario would be the assortment of lawyers, M&A consultants and probably the BOD.

I have seen similar strategies taken elsewhere in many other outfits, and I am not convinced that it works particularly well a lot of the time. Certainly, insofar as shareholders go.

And, as that is my only capacity in ITV, that is my single interest :)

Yeah, I would not support a partial sale of assets. All or nothing!

MrA: Wishing you a very happy Christmas too. Well done on your successful trade here. I presume you have set a sell order to protect your gains, whilst letting it run further should it continue to do so into the New Year?

Mr Wolf: Hope you and yours have a nice festive break.

I promised to come on here should the markets not have corrected by now, as I said that I expected they would have by now.

And that I would be delighted to be wrong. Well, I am indeed delighted to have been wrong about the timing of such a correction. Like many here I am sure, my p/f certainly looks far healthier than it would have done, had that scenario come to fruition.

GLA and let us hope for a good 2024.

IMO, however bad the results - if we assume the worst, just for this hypothetical scenario - then I am inclined to agree. Although actually, I do not think it would even be sub 4 quid. So I do not really consider it a punt either, albeit easy to say from a position with a currently low average and now only a small position too. All relative, I guess.

Ultimately, all ASOS needs to show the market in the next update, is that they have (at least) met guidance and are confident in their projected forward guidance.

Evidence of debt reduction and forward guidance on further debt reduction.

Preferably with some decent inside buying immediately afterwards (as soon as the window opens).

Then the macro stuff which I, and perhaps a few others, are mindful of, becomes less of an issue. For this company, at least.

Continuing the bearish tone (lol) - have a look at the recent Fed Ex update. IMO quite a useful bellwether, especially when added to wider, key economic data elsewhere.

And that is the US, whose economy is far stronger than Europe's, all things considered.

So IMO the caution is entirely sensible and valid. But does not mean I have gone into a bunker and sat in cash only.

Going to keep playing (while keeping back plenty of dry powder) until the music stops, although to each their own....