Member Info for LWHL

It did not help I agree - and to be clear, my sympathies are with the innocent Ukrainian people and the lives lost and ruined. I did not give that example to put forward an opinion on the war. Although all wars are by their very nature, inflationary events. History shows that.

My point was that it is simply untrue that inflation was caused by this alone.

Same as the politicians blaming 'greedy' companies for price rises. I simply do not believe that they are so lacking in basic economic intelligence and understanding (not all of them anyway) - ergo they must be lying.

As you point out, QE is the disaster. Milton had this stuff nailed.

I also agree with you that all we can do is play the cards as they fall. The mistakes they make create opportunities for those of us who are in the fortunate position to be able to profit from them. When we get it right. GLA.

That might be the latest narrative (excuse), but no.

Like Biden blaming inflation on Vlad, as one example that springs to mind, you just cannot trust anything a politician says. I include central bankers in that bucket.

But that does not mean the markets are going to crash immediately. We might even have a good run ahead of us yet. And I thought that we would have seen a proper correction before now in the markets, so I can make no claims to having any great timing over such things.

I have done far better in this market than I would have, had my bearish opinions played out when I thought they would, so I am far from unhappy about this, in that sense.

Can they keep the game going until after next year's election? That is the big question.

In the meantime, I plan to keep playing until the music stops, whenever that might be.

Then, when everyone says it is the end of the financial system, the stock markets, etc and the VIX is at suitably appropriate (elevated) levels, I will start buying more heavily in certain names.

I assume it is a joke.

If it is not...well, I would love to pen a detailed rebuttal, but then not only would it be long, but it would also be difficult not to fall into the trap of contributing to the existing (and growing) inter-generational divide.

So, so tempting though....

I expect it will be an after hours RNS :)

In all seriousness, be careful in this market guys.

I have been reflecting further on the last US Fed update. I cannot shake the feeling that there might be some liquidity issues in the banking system perhaps, because if you listen to the last few speeches by J Powell, then the recent one the other day...that is essentially a U-turn, as I read it.

Not that they will disclose anything that they want to keep under wraps, unless they have no choice.

If this speculation is accurate, it naturally will have ramifications for the wider banking system, so not simply a localised matter.

But I could be entirely wrong. Certainly hope so anyway.

Even with these thoughts, it does not change my trading plans. Play the markets, not the macro. GLA.

Shorts have reduced a lot. At the time of print, now only 0.61%. We are not going to get a squeeze from that, even if they bought back the whole lot quickly. They might even have already closed out today.

But as you say, we will see in the next few days perhaps.

My fault. I nibbled a few more today :)

There is a first time for everything. Not the egg on face (that happens frequently!) but a bid claim on a chat board that actually happens within a short period after the post .

But yeah, it would rather :)

Nice work, Tom.

Always enjoyable to make some nice sized profits in a short time frame.

Only play with what you can afford to risk though, even at this kind of SP level, mate.

I have not got a buy order currently for this name, but if we see that kind of price on no particular company-specific news (or major macro event for example), that would likely be a similar target I would aim for again too.

But if the markets perform strongly again tomorrow, I do not see either of us getting a successful buy order filled. GLA.

There you go! Got your profit too. GLA.

Fair enough. I agree with you.

I listened to his full speech earlier today. Two things stood out to me, reading between the lines.

First, that it was OK for the masses to experience sustained, high inflation that harmed their purchasing power. But they are not willing to allow us to enjoy some of the relief of a reverse for even a similar period of time. The bit where JP said about not wanting to overshoot on the 2% target, hence potentially cutting rates before that 2% print. Also a bit of a U-turn IMO on some of his speeches given in the past.

Second, what this actually means, is that they do not think they can achieve 2% now (let alone getting the average back down to 2%). I read a comment somewhere earlier that he has in effect thrown in the towel on inflation. An opinion that I am inclined to agree with.

But play the markets, not the macro. On this basis, a good time to be long the markets IMO. For now anyway.

Hopefully we get a bumper offer from the US for that operation, or indeed a full company offer, while such euphoria lasts. GLA.

As long as the BOD turn things around here, then sooner or later the share price will start to reflect that.

Meanwhile, shorters are having to compete with PI's for anything in the 380p - 390p range right now, IMO.

Short tracker has them at 5.29% still, so if the turnaround is working, then I cannot see how all of them are going to get out with a profit.

Indeed it is IMO more likely that some will have to eat losses, given the small free float, on top of other holders with far higher averages, who retain long term confidence, and thus are not going to give up their shares at anything close to this level. GLA.

Meh. Plenty of brainless mistakes in my locker. Your decision was nowhere near that level of folly.

FWIW, I toyed with the idea of setting a sell order at 415p, but happy (at the time of print) with overriding the chimp on my shoulder, as the saying goes.

Always a battle with your own psychology. Rather than congratulating myself on my pre-JP speech purchases last night, I find myself dwelling somewhat on not having bought more!

But at the end of the day, it was good risk management and the markets might have tanked after his speech.

They might still plunge for no particular reason later, who knows?

To borrow someone's saying (I forget who now) be careful when everyone piles onto one side of the boat...

My concern, as time has gone on, is the prospect of a deal being bad for shareholders. I would rather they walk away, than agree to something that only benefits the Malawian politicians.

The other side of the business must not be put at risk just to get a Songwe deal done. A bad deal is worse than no deal.

Immediate sale to a big player who can take over once the licence is granted remains my strong preference. And the most logical, commercial decision, given our size etc. IMO.

But I also have low expectations that we will hear anything before 2024. So not giving it much head space.

It did. But you might easily get your 411p later today. In fact, IMO you might get more, should the US continue its rally when they open. Or sooner perhaps.

At some point, the shorters (not just here, but across the markets), are going to start to feel the heat. If these rallies are sustained for any period of time.

Then, if that happens, the margin calls start. Then the fun begins for the long side.

But as I keep on saying, the macro stuff keeps me grounded and actually quite fearful of all this euphoria. Hence lots of trimming here and there.

But in spite of my opinions on that stuff, I still have quite a significant amount of risk on exposure, so am going against these personal sentiments in many ways.

If you only follow the macro, you will never make any money in stock market equities.

In fact, you would probably go broke, because you would only be short everything.

A look over at the SQQQ stocktwits (US) chat board underpins this opinion.

Anyway, as always, keeping my eye on this, should another opportunity present itself. Comfortable to have left some in play in case we finally have seen the back of this (for me, most gratifying) trading range. GLA.

It smells nice so far though :)

Just the 400p tranche left on the table now. Same price target for those as before. Although I anticipated getting that months ago, so who knows?

It has meant that this one has remained more on my radar than if it was in the buy and hold bucket, so in that sense I am actually quite grateful. Would not have side pot traded this one as much, if at all, otherwise in all probability.

Eight times so far, since you asked :) GLA.

My comment was tongue in cheek, WT.

You think gold will go down? With a lower DXY and sub 80 USD oil?

You do know that the central bank mandate is to obtain an average of 2% inflation I presume?

If they lower rates before even getting back to 2% (never mind average), then that will likely mean the economy is in turmoil.

And the narrative of a soft landing can finally be discarded by even those who buy the current theory today.

But putting that opinion aside for a moment - watch what happens to the stock market when they do cut rates.

And employment levels for that matter. Because rate cuts IMO will follow ugly employment numbers, among other unpleasant economic indicators.

Agree with you about the manipulation though, but I am not sure even they can keep the game going until after the election next year. We shall see.

However, before then, I agree a rally is likely. I even bought back a few shares in some of those that I trimmed and one that I had sold out of completely earlier today.

A long way from being fully invested though. And largely with a view of hopefully having the opportunity to trim and offload again before the music stops.

Agree too that Mobico and most other UK stocks should perform strongly tomorrow, and potentially into early New Year. Confident in my prediction about tomorrow, less certain beyond that. Because these are volatile and highly risky times, with a dreadful global macro picture too, IMO. GLA.

While nothing can be certain, I would be staggered if we do not see a strong UK market rally when the bell rings at 8am.

Very few names will not get pulled up tomorrow, IMO, but we shall see.

Typical of our luck if this is one of the very few that sits in the naughty corner tomorrow! I think it will be one of the many green stocks - but we will know within 12-14 hours...

My bearish macro thesis remains unchanged, but I'm happy to continue to have the chance to make some profits while the music continues to play. GLA.

Indeed :)

I will be setting a sell order for 410p first thing, just in case it behaves sensibly!

As always with this one at the moment, it is the perennial box of chocolates. So, now I have said that, it will probably hit 402p, then back to the low 380's, to punish me a second time for veering away from my original plans :)

Is that the same fit and proper tests that the Premier League operates when determining prospective foreign club ownership matters?

While you may be right about the prospect of such a bid not being successful from an avenue such as that (I have no idea in either direction, personally), when you think of some of the...lets say 'unfortunate' matters that have gone on at ITV, or indeed so much macro western political...stuff...the phrase stones and glass houses comes to mind :)

Anyway, to that poster, please feel free to ramp away, if you so wish.

And if you can get this pumped up to 80p or so (in order that I may take profits), that would be splendid :)