RE: What we need now..16 Dec 2023 19:22
Inflation is not down much, and that is without even getting into the credibility of the CPI criteria in the first place.
Very recent hints of rate cuts (a U-turn on previous central bank commentary, to my mind) - when we are not even at 2% now - let alone average 2%, which do not forget is the fairly long established central bank mandate, gives me the impression that they know something that we do not (yet) know. Liquidity issues perhaps? I do not know specifically of course, but IMO something is 'off'.
Commodity prices are not on the floor, although I can see oil having a small bounce before having a natural retrace (in line with typical recessions) below the current price. Even allowing for OPEC decisions and the fact the US needs to refill their reserves at some point. I am medium term bullish oil and other commodities FWIW, and still hold a few CVX (will load the boat if that sees high 90's next year, although naturally not investment advice etc). Natural gas looks overdue a bounce IMO, although not currently in that space.
Then you have national debt and private debt levels. And a bunch of other indicators that look far from rosy.
For this company, right now, it is not so much the oil prices (lower the better of course), but the purchasing power of the consumer (which IMO is only going to get worse in 2024) that I think will validate my opinion, rather than yours.
Always fun to speculate and debate though. Will make more profits if your thesis is the correct one and mine is too bearish...so I am rooting for you, jamesss :)