Member Info for LuckyLuciano

EIA should read EIG...Need more coffee

..Main thing is that this rumours of shares on loan and Euroclear is now on the open....
They say there will be more RNS coming out on this.
Company (EIA) is committed to the oil sector with recent acquisition of some Repsol interest, on this by the way has anyone a link to EIA/REPSOL deal? Pl

Again thank you Obsolete..
and so it seems that there are no short position on HBR.
The threshold for notification to FCA is 0.1%, therefore the 10% held by Euroclear are not short position as suggested by Indy0105.
Kind of big statement in my view without doing the proper research first.
Moreover this guy/girl is suggesting that is aware of other instants when big short positions on HBR HAVE NOT BEEN DECLARED?
My world how does he do that? knowing things that nobody else know? Amazing.....
This is the quality of information going round these days...be aware of Donald Trump like posters on here.
Stick to your initial believe on investments and do your onw research, be suspicious of people not posting links or source of info.
On EIG via Repsol getting more involved in Indonesia my take is that it prove EIG is serious and committed to become a big player in the energy space and not here for financial speculations....
That Indonesia is interesting for the vicinity of China, but not necessary China been a customer as Indonesia need badly to get rid of coal use for its own industries.
And that Indonesia is one of the most tax friendly country in the world.
Awaiting drill results by the way...

Thanks...in any case though we are not able to know at any one time what's the total short position for HBR, like with Nasdaq...
A daily disclosure means almost nothing..

Thanks Obsolete...
In which case HBR share held by Euroclear could be easily be a collateral for HBR outstanding debt?!

I mean in USA via Nasdaq web site for example one is able to know short positions for every stock, I am trying to look in London Stock Exchange website...

I am trying to understand the Euroclear/short/loan situation here....
Had a quick look and it seems Euroclear is a facilitator of financial transaction, like a mm..(not sure if I got this right thought)
Hence my theory goes that EIG lends shares to Euroclear and by doing so is making money, but EUROCLEAR is not shorting directly HBR but facilitate any entity wishing to short HBR.....Therefore is not clear how much % is shorting at anyone time it could be zero. It seems to me that shorting disclosure in Uk is not as transparent as in USA.
Any more competent contribution is welcomed..

I like to see info on 10% Euroclear on loan......
In absence of that , the shorting story sound a massive Buls@it

Interesting times...one more reason I wouldn't short HBR..

...I am not so sure there is much shorting HBR going on out there. I f I was shorting I would use WTI or Brent, has the chart is more predictable than single share.
Selling is likely coming from panicking investors, and possibly the mm helping with spread to push price down to fill HBR shares buy back...
Just based on intuition no facts...

Is my time frame for investing in hbr, target price been above 600p. My assumption for this to happen are : Brent to average above 100$ and consequently hbr be debit free. Oil price is reaching interesting support level, testing time... Recession sentiment are pushing poo lower but I am reading that in US even at higher prices driving mileage per person is at record high... For oil price to collapse is needed a catalyst event of some magnitude, imo normal economic data even if negative cannot push poo to unprofitable levels. At £10 profit per barrel HBR is making some £750mil per year. At this current price is PE if 4.5 and debit free in 6 month..... £3 sp must be a great entry.

... Also PCE peaked at 6% and is forecasted at 5.2, remember it excludes energy and food..... May just come as forecasted or lower.... Bullish for stocks.

Crater... Sound a bit too dramatic, maybe is because you in the end don't go short. Indeed with current volatility and macroeconomics data including GDP out next fiew days, it is very risky taking any position, been short or long. The professionals advise to be in cash or very cautious. US GDP has been negative 2 consecutive times and expectation are for a third time comes tomorrow, it may easily be a good number in stead and burn6all the shorter out there. Rather to own shares right now....

lol

Not sure what's happening but some gut feeling tells me something is changing, in valuing HBR against some peers.
Today (so far..) Hbr in the green and Serica/Enquest in red?
Maybe speculation on coming drill result?

If WT for 2022 is due sometime in 2023, is still to be seen if we will have to pay any and how much will it be....
I did an approximate calculation of WT for 2022 with oil price above 100$, for 200k day production.
It came at $443 millions going against some $800 capex left to spend since May. No sure how much of $800 is eligible for offset, and how much is spent in North Sea.....
Also I am expecting the BoD to maybe change some capex plans by focusing on Ns?!

The risk - When the war ends brent will drop $30 in one go, That was said Saudi's yesterday on Bloomberg. This will happen at some stage. I want to be out before that happens for sure===============================================

Possibly true about the drop, although wouldn't bet exactly on how much it will drop....But this is only short lived sentiment reaction not based on facts.....
In reality with the war ended you get, growth and expansion, les fear factor on the markets, still sanction in place, and then you always have OPEC and USA that will make sure oil prices will remain above certain levels.....
The point been if you invest for a short time frame like a gambler, then sure odds might be higher, but the chances that you get it right are much lower.
When the war will end? On which terms? What will be the effect on oil price? How long it will last?
Good luck with your calculations.
I am happy to know that by end of the year we have no debit and less edges in place, on top of been invested in a muchly needed commodity in a safe geographical part of the world.
By the way awaiting Indonesian drilling, talking about catalyst news...

Good analyse and lets remember that HBR market cap was above £5bill, with still debt and edging in place, if wasn't for the Profit Levy.....
In the next month or so I am expecting catalyst news to push the sp back to higher levels.
Conclusion the WT consultation and possible favourable change of terms for NS Oilers.
In absence of this, a RNS from Hbr clarifying the minimal impact that WT will have on the bottom line profit.
On this I suspect the company has been quite till now because of the consultation from the Gov. on the matter, in other words they could not say that the tax has minimal impact on the profit, and then go and complain to the Government about it....
The we are going to have the H1 results.......

Is not just this share, is the whole market getting ridiculous cheep levels...
Markets and sp move on sentiments more than anything else, forget about fundamentals , when there is fear and greed...
We need to pay out debt and reduce edging, once that happens and if oil is still above 80$, then this share will move north significantly, imo.
If you invest in HBR with 1.5/2 years time frame with, with aim to min. double your investment, you are betting that oil price will average above 80$ and that in this period Governments will be done with rate rises...
IMO, higher wages and tight labour market will level out high inflation and therefore there will not be a recession, as I said is all sentiments and headline news.
Sit tight and relax or if you are brave try to trade this market, I wonder how many shorter got burned yesterday.
Also it was interesting to see yesterday OIL, in absence of any fundamental news, still rising together with the main market (again sentiments) if that is the trend, when there will be a market bounce back up, it will be a great support for price.
DYOR

Me thinking BoD of HBR awaiting/hoping to get something out of consultation with Sunak on WT and for it to be passed in to law.
Once that is over and with a bit of tinkering on capex, they will come out with rns saying that actually the Levy won't affect much it at all the bottom line profit, going forward.