Member Info for LuckyLuciano

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8LsT1qjj5I
There was no doubt that Russian oil will find a way in other market, but I suppose the question is at what price....
Also South Arabia will not be happy that Russia may increase market shares...

Thanks Texan done my bit and sent my suggestions for a more fair WT.
With a bit of ranting ......

Very good points.
What gets me about WT is how undiscriminating and rushed in this tax is.
True edging means less profit so no benefit from higher oil price, but also what is high oil price 80? 90? 150?
Different tax rate should apply to different average oil price realised at end of the year, to be a fair tax, therefore taking in consideration edging, but also the eventuality that oil price could drop to more normal levels...
I suppose when the Levy was conceived they didn't care much about these details (which are not..) because they though by giving such a generous rebate, it would make it up for any incongruence and unfair rates....We still have to see if the rebate works, which I think it will (in order to reduce the WT) but more importantly according to what they say, if it works to encourage investment in the NS.

Another point to consider is USD/GBP recent 15% appreciation going straight to the profit numbers.
But the market right now is short sighted, ready to sell any here and now any negative, even factoring in negative probabilities still to materialise.
If one as to believe at the eventuality of recession and demand destruction, oil has to be one of the few commodities which price in the end may be unaffected, current drop is only noise.
Many Gov. talks of capping the price of oil and gas...if that happens forget about demand disruption. Sadly war in Ukraine and Russia cutting gas supply. Opec interventions. The primary need for energy in anything we do and produce.
Even in the most pessimistic forecast I can't see WTI price going lower than $80 Brent $90ish, which is the highest price since 2014 and possibly gas is even more bullish.
At this rate HBR is destined to make some £1.5 billion profit every year going forward and be all cash market cap, by end 2024, unheard for a oil company.

That it another one on the Ignore list like his friend jefff.....
I mean this guy start a tread by blaming himself, for listening to other people....
No sorry is blaming other people for convincing him to do wrong things...
Now one can clearly see how easily is to affect his decisions, I am trying to understand what valuable input can someone like this, give to the board.
No time to waste here. IGNORED..

Its funny that all of us know very well, sp are affected more by market sentiments, and yet we keep focusing on fundamentals and market value.
For Hbr we need to be frank....the big debit and stupid edging, are what is keeping the sp so low.
Add to that current turmoil in geopolitics and world finance and the only realistic outcome, is the current sp and its volatility....
Indeed given the current circumstances may protract in to 2023, even after HBR will get rid of its debit and at lower edging, is not easy asses what will be a fair multiple valuation for HBR, a PE of 2? 4? 10?
Best metrics will be to compare HBR to peers when 2023 will come, surely not looking at historic valuations as we live in unprecedented times.
One thing to note is that in the last week HBR sp is moving more in sync with other NS oilers.
Possibly the negativity on remaining debit and edging is gone, yet now we have negativity on oil and demand destruction and imv this is a fantastic opportunity to buy the dip.
Oil was due a correction as noting goes up in a straight line, but if I look at the mid/long term trend it can only be bullish.
For example any economic recession, can be easily reversed by more QE or other interventions, lower oil price can be easily reversed by less OPEC production.
The Board of HBR seems to be very wise....starting a buy back right now is a great move, including Directors purchases. They work in the sector and they can see thing happening far before than any of us here. When they talk of scenarios of oil above $100/b, there must be some reason to believe it....
Its only a matter of time before investors will be rewarded by investing at these prices, but right now there is so much headline news fear factors, that one can be excused to sell HBR for a few % gain.

More than short seller I see lots of retail investors trading this for a mere few % gain or loss, just for fun..
With a little help from the main market comes August H1, we will move to a new higher support/resistance level, and if oil will keep average above $100, the big push in sp higher should come with full year result begin of 2023, when debit will be payed and edges reduced....
Another imminent catalyst for sp new level could be coming from imminent drilling results in Indonesia, but doubling of so here as to happen in 2023...

Just trying to understand how much negative can be the 25% extra tax, against the generous rebate at 91% capex.
Have I understood it correct that to cancel out 25% tax, capex on NS operation needs to be 27.5% of profit before tax?
Is not HBR capex for 2022 at $1.3 billions, assuming half will be spent from introduction of WT in May, will it be enough to offset all the 25% WT charge?
And for next year 2023 with a bit of planning is it possible that WT, will have no effect on the net profit numbers?
Is understandable that the industry makes some noise and lobby against this new taxation , especially the way it was introduced and the lack of clarity under different scenarios on oil prices volatility, but in the end it is also an opportunity.
Serica which from initial market reaction, apparently was supposed to be one of the hardest hit by Energy Profits Levy, managed to come out with such positive latest update RNS.
I think and hope after the Levy will be put in to law, that HBR will also come out with an update to the market, explaining what will be the impact of new taxation (if any) and what they will do to mitigate or nullify it.
Would very much prefer that an RNS on WT will come out before H1 results..

Just wondering how much more low it can go?
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio/table/by-month
Average PE now at 18.5, looking back its lower than 2020 pandemic.
There are companies out there with a current PE of 1.5, giving guidance of better record profit in next quarter and still the sp keep dropping.
F@ck the inflation and rate rise, fundamentals are out of the window, the market and many share prices are looking for technical, to find support.

if oil above 110 can be considered tanking..

..reports of Gazprom reducing further gas supply to Germany and Italy, officially due to technical reasons, but one as to wonder if recent visit to Kiev from the 3 European leaders is behind this escalation.
Lots of catalyst and news flow to keep oil/gas prices high, will be interesting to see how oil price will react if we're going to have a bear rally on indexes with uds down...

Is the first time I try to filter someone on LSE.
Hope it works.

Is all over the place right now...
Prices are erratic the least...
Look at USD/GBP for example down 45 up 2% in the space of few days.
Dollar index the same .....for not to mention the main market indexes.
Oil price recent blip down possibly has been following Dollar index rise of last few days, now in reverse might push oil price higher....
Have to say a bit disappointed to see HBR to close in red, imo the market is missing something when Serica is up 4.2% and HBR down 1%. These times best sit tight and hold with an eye on oil prices.

Please BH don't make me start with investment timing, I am possibly the crappest of all...
But foe HBR imv the perfect storm of macro interest is aligning perfectly.
Price of oil, dollar strength, production increase, exploration success (hopefully), debit reduction hence finance costs gone..
Interesting times...

just raised rate to 0.25% against US 0.75%
I say UK is trying to find its way out of downturn in the economy, by devaluing the GBP, with the view that inflation will soon start to top out..
Parity with the USD coning and 20% hike in HBR profit by the end of the year.

Was puzzling to see the massive US index drop overnight.
Just wondering when the cash market opens what will be the direction...

Rookie1 and Jefff
MUST be the same person......
I wonder what is their/his short position ......
Anyhow Rookie1 was reading your post on conspiracy theory and it seems interesting at the begin......Had to stop when you go on saying=================

I read you post earlier lucky, about how unlucky we have been with so many things happening one after another for the last two years and yet you still havnt clicked. It’s not coincidence, everything is supply chain disruptions with an intended purpose,Hyper inflation.
Nice excuse to tax the company’s into oblivion and then redistribute to the mass’s. crippling buisness while winning votes, no buinsness = no employment. No employment means your eating out of the governments palm totally controlled hooked up to a digital world.=================================================

My God mate please read again your posts when you sober up......
Only a paranoid person would write and have these convictions, please no offences Rookie1 I genuinely mean it, why do you think that everybody is out there trying to screw you up....
Human been are not perfect we all make mistakes, is it not possible that all this conspiracy theories you talk about is simply how humans been are?
Look at the history of humans they have been fuc@king about since ever, when this conspiracy started then one millions years ago?

...or included.

I see more WT, has head line they needed to come out with, due to political pressure.
In the end after all the QE and Furlough benefits hand out, I can't believe they couldn't find few billions to give to the people on benefits for energy bills.
But because since Brexit this Gov. has taken a populist stance, they had to act on high oil prices.
Indeed the generous WT rebate and especially the fact that has immediate effect, imv is an opportunity for the industry, after some capex readjustments, to pay less tax at current oil prices.
No coincidence that HBR sp didn't dropped immediately when WT came out, but surely there will be some oil companies that will actually pay some towards WT, some more some less.
If then BBC or the some news headlines will go against the generous WT rebate, the Gov. can always saying that it benefit the North Sea....another Nationalistic concept that will please the masses, me incuded.

Another everyone guess talking point...
I am trying to look at the technical in conjunction with news flow and recent events.
RSI is very much in oversold territory and yet there is no "divergence signal" forming, indicating that a rise is imminent.
In my view given the current climate, is likely that we may see a lower price before the rise starts.
Is comforting the fact that recently there has been high volumes traded above this price, meaning that when the rise starts it will be very fast....
I am not sure even if a positive rns from the company, would change this current balance on sp, as inflation and rate rise talks are affecting any share any price out there...
Possibly only a massive jump in oil price could make a difference right now.
So we are awaiting August H1 results, by then the company will have payed more debit, and made more profit. By then or earlier the company should also clarify the impact WT will have on profits.
On this matter, assuming company guide line of $1.4/1.6 billion profit for 2022 with oil at $100/b.
I have done back of the envelope calculations adding $200 divi. with oil at $110/b and adding 25% WT.
Starting from $1.6 bill FCF have ended up with $1.96 bill FCF less 25% WT at $443mill, which is almost a third of this year total Capex and half from May Tax starting point.
IMV is likely that this year all WT will be fully rebated and that we will benefit from price of oil above the $100/b initially forecast. Of course more we get to August and more this is factored in the price, but for now technical on sp have some support levels lower than current sp hence force of gravity is in place together with macro sentiments, while oil price at these levels has become a norm......which is goooooood.