Member Info for LuckyLuciano

I don't care...I left her because she was too demanding in bed.

Well troublesome you can't deny that seadoc has taken a difficult road with his short position especially now that the sp has past the lower uptrend channel.
Understandable shorting this from the top of the up channel, but now past the lows of the uptrend channel is a bit risky, imo.

Can you tell I start with the wine?

Sorry guys nobody is perfect and everyone if free to make their points, add to that the we more often than not talk and express our self out of emotions. People sometime seek a controversy of argument to find an answer, rather than to make a point.
Amen.

Seadoc I beg you to reconsider your position.
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Because they are chancers. in for a turn. Many LTHs are traders that failed to get out in time.
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This your opening statement imply that ncyt is definitely destined for the downturn. I suppose you imply that does people are in a losing position. Funny enough my interpretation is that may investors here are people on profit that are getting out slowly for whatever legitimate reason they have. After all ncyt height was back in April an people at that levels had plenty of time to get out. Then we had a bounce from 200p and now we are in a consolidation phase, so shorting ncyt is becoming a bit more risky (beside the fact that I found it difficult to believe that someone is shorting NCYT share, not for a fundamental principle but from a practical point of view.) Anyway I fail to understand if your shorting position, is based on having understood and analysed what kind of investor are on board this share, or if is based on you theory of xy and z specificity and all that , or maybe I just don't understand it, good luck with that but make sure you are investing to make money, not simply to be proven right on your theories.

In get your point Topprize and don't disagree with that, possibly I was a bit sarcastic regarding rns bringing down the sp ,
but hey this is the BoD communication style. In a sense its reassuring to see that the Directors don't bother to pump up the sp with continuous info to the masses.
I suppose for now the only forward news we have to stick to, is this:

Outlook
Given the visibility of orders, extended contracts and the launch of new COVID-19 related products, the Company anticipates revenue for the second half of the year to be greater than the first half of the year and margins to be at least at a similar level. As a result, there is expected to be greater cash generation in the second half of the year and the
Company is reviewing its capital allocation policy to enhance and accelerate long-term value creation through its three-pillar strategy of organic, R&D and acquisitive growth.

Again I am asking if rns are bringing the sp down, why people insist to have them?

I am sorry but we had a trade update for H1 and on the day the share price tumbled, another R&D update after that and now we broke the uptrend . What is the point in asking for these news flow from the company if shareholder sell at the first opportunity, to the point that right now we have a forward PE of 2/2.5 to 2020 profit??
If I was ncyt director and realise that news depress the sp i would keep quite, wouldn't you?

Indeed ak_gabba you make a perfect point in what I am trying to say on this board.
AVC, and SNG yes are covid related stocks but are news driven sp.
Its funny but often expectation make shareholders commit their hard earned cash and take risks much more that facts and fundamental base news, hence the relatively higher sp (depending which time frame we like to consider) . Ncyt is AVC, SNG few months ago when the sp was driven by expectation.
Just wait and see when investors will realise that affimers is just a dream, or that interferon has not passed approval due to side effect or other issue.
This is not my wish, with respect to all invested also in those two companies but if I was to bet on black or red i rather go to the casino.
Anyway yes covid shares but in a different stage of sp progession.
I am looking at vaccine stocks right now for example (many of them)and the sp of those has a similar trajectory of ncyt.
If we like to be more specific and compare companies that make test kit, take a look at codx, cemi, or even identical twin sp movement of ALBIO french market and possibly a direct competitor of ncyt, which i am looking closely (by the way) to find a good entry point. Just to say ncyt sp is behaving as it should be right now. A re-rating will come with results, not news and promises like in the case of AVC and SNG.

Sorry ak_gabba which other covid stock is doing well right now?

Yes probably is the time the company switch to a quarterly update, given the volume of sale is generating compare to just 6 months ago. Maybe they haven't catch up yet, with the company transformation from a pr perspective.
Is likely that it will happen in the future. Still all in all assuming that we are travelling at 22.5£mill sales x month with no increase I think is a good floor for the share price, for people not to panic.
I am still convinced that the mm is playing psychology games with the traders out there, by manipulating the sp.
But this is conspiracy theory so please disregard my last comment.
Incidentally many covid related shares right now, are exactly in the same sp trend of Ncyt, meaning that current sp is not a problem of the company but just how things are at the moment.

I suspect because most of the shares are in the hands of retail investors there is little interest from fin institution to cover this share, for now.

Is exactly the question I was asking my self earlier on. It seems that before covid no analyst was covering ncyt due to the small size of the company, if anything a coverage would rerate this company and be more of a catalyst that any general meeting or financial results.

The good news are that Ncyt has many international sale channels already open before the covid event, and now as huge capacity to fulfil many orders books also with innovative product, we also have quality top of the range. We are in the best position to increase revenue and given our margins i suppose we are also competitive on prices which is a good thing .

..sorry should have said at 400 mc and 40 millions profit..but you get my point . Are 40 million £ profit doable in long terms to sustain a double of price from here?

Indeed and even if we double from here, at some 200£ market cap we would need only 20mil profit for a PE of 10. Talking about uncertainty in the medium long term of the businesses.....

neil13
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The simple fact is other companies have caught up and Novacyt are longer the exiting new thing .
The big rise has already taken place .
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Assumption based on what? just because the sp has moved few %down?
Well mate thank you for your detailed research and info. Great contribution to this board.

Its my humble opinion that Ncyt is now become a share to buy and hold for 6 month to 1 year, not to trade for the short term.
The sp has skyrocketed from the begin of the pandemic on the wave of news driven sentiments, with lots of volatility culminating in a correction back to 200p. Now that investors have some visibility on the radar regarding revenue stream, the focus and reason to invest here have shifted to fundamentals, where news (non financial) have little or no effect on the sp and yet, possibly non financial news on R&D or new market opportunities, should be the one that drive the sp forward and create a solid base.
In consideration of the technical blip of yesterday were the short term up trend was broken, my conspiracy theory goes that the MM have widen the spread to bring the price down and trigger some sale. They (mm) may need shares for when the good news will come and ncyt sp will skyrockets, I don't know but is suspicious the the spread widen near such critical levels.
Anyway back to trading or holding ncyt, and sorry for this long post (is also because I am in quarantine and have no one to talk to). Trying to trade ncyt now imo is very risky because is not that we have expectation of some sure price sensitive news and the certainty that the sp will move upward. Ncyt sp need consolidation meaning that it will go up and down driven by more unpredictable factors therefore trading become more difficult. But imo holding represent a good opportunity and not just because sales will increase given the development of covid-19, but also because the BoD is aware of the dynamics of covid and is taking measures to warrant a lasting sale stream for the company, not with nice rns and empty word but with actions...

I am amazed by the complains of some here, shouting out for some news/announcement from Ncyt , just to satisfy their need to calm down the fear they have to be invested in Ncyt. Come on people look at the jo-jo up and down of ncyt sp, then put yourself in the shoe of a BoD working hard to innovate and sell the product to create revenue for the short and long terms of the company and ask yourself, do I really need to worry about the fears of some retail investors, by reassuring them with continuous rns, for them to sell as soon as the sp rises 10%.
Trust me if Ncyt would start to produce a rns every 1/2 week ala Avct...it would mean that something is going wrong with the company.

My risk/reward from here is 30% on the downside and 110% on the upside
https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_e5ef53cd9b748260b3a69b83d859a314.png
Next fib wave up should be 38.2% past all time high. When ?
Probably in the new year . If you think about it at 638p sp and a market cap of some 450mil £ , we may just have a PE of 5.5-6. Not a bad investment 100% return in 1 year max. I know we got used to make 50% gains in a day with some shares but these days unfortunately are over.