Member Info for LuckyLuciano

This is BHP graph and a mirror of past performance, but I am posting it because of how crucial is the price action of fast few days actually of Friday gone.....
https://www.investing.com/equities/bhp-billiton-chart
Is BHP which may have noting to do with Fxpo but still an iron ore producer and a big one.....

In my opinion and going forward THS as an edge on SLP. Already forward PE is better for THS even with adjustment for SLP cash, more over THS cash will grow faster....But the point of been a refinery or also a miner is quite important. Yes there is a risk attached to mining but it gives more control on production and potential, and also I think we are missing the asset value of owning the metal in the ground....SLP report talks about lower feed grate if I remember right, this is out of the company control, moreover there could always be a day when supply dry out or become more expensive. I have limited experience on PGM mining and production and possibly I am saying stupid things. Just using commune sense.

Beside is perfectly logical after a lock down to see spikes of inflation. On the commodities super cycle inflation I am not so sure, recent price rises are a combination of lock down supply chain dislocation, government pumping trillion in the markets and some genuine supply deficit. It (the market) should all be analysed for each commodity to see the reasons behind price increases, but I suspect in some commodities there is also some opportunistic policies from some suppliers to creep the price up. If one believe in that though, conspiracy theories possibilities of all sorts opens up, and it gets even more impossible to understand what's happening. Anyhow inflation is not necessarily a bad thing if people can afford to pay the prices, there never be so much cash around, if only the super rich would share it with commune people, inflation would be a non event, because wages would rise same as profits and people could afford to pay the prices. Final word on the stock market a dip is due, it coincide with many catalysts like earning season is ending, no more money printing till July ($4 trillion proposed by US) market in overbought territory confirmed by RSI indicator, sp not reacting to fantastic news and covid still rampant is some part of the world. One can't be blamed for stay in cash for a while and see what happen, as long as iron ore price doesn't drop like a stone FXPO will make new height, and I am not particularly concern on iron ore price but the wide market... 40% correction is huge not going to happen.....not even 30%. Maybe something in the middle between my 10% and your 40% unvrkw , we will see if and when, all this will comes true. The sign are there and many players (not us) are talking about it. Is a dangerous game to bet against the many opinions...just for the sake to be right. These are just my opinion supported by some research, please dyor and if you are still reading, thank you for you patience and kindness.

CCC. let me assure that won't be unvrkw to push down Fxpo to 2.60 (if that will happen) I mean with iron ore at these price how can be possible that a poster succeed in that...I understand that this is Fxpo board but is good sometime and in absence of more relevant news, to talk about other financial matters that believe you me, may affect my and your interest and investment even more than you can imagine.
Personally I have to thank unvrkw for starting this post because it made me look at the big picture. The same big picture that made me a lot of money since March 2020 is now changing dynamics...2020 where easy money, after a crash comes always a bounce back up if you are long only investor. Now though its wise to keep an eye on the big picture...I know is frustrating and confusing when there are some fantastic companies out there like Fxpo, which sp doesn't reflect what they are worth. Recently the narrative of keep investing in the market was a switch from secular investments to cyclical and indexes managed to go even higher, but I ear that many professionals and head of investment banks are becoming more and more cautious (not pessimistic) in keeping money on the table...IMO the technical (not fxpo sp ) of S&P500 index confirm this 100%. I would spend one word on the bond market with hope that someone may comment on my assumption.
Recently there was a mini market correction caused by the 10years bond rate creeping upward near 2%, the narrative was that inflation is coming hence many in the financial world calling for the Fed to react somehow. We may whitens something similar happening as a catalyst for the next market correction. Real inflation thought are consumer prices going up, not bond rates . Bond rates go up when asset managers and government sell US bonds depressing the price...when the price of bond goes down the capon goes up. This is the real danger to US economy (but noting to do with inflation) if the world start to sell US bonds means that the Fed will have more difficult to finance future debt and also that the interest repayment on current debit get higher and higher, but this is another story. I mention this because my theory is that if financial institution are selling bonds (and is many trillion $ market) I am wondering where this cash is going to be invested? Hence my conviction that stock market will always go higher because in long terms will bring always better returns). Now about inflation I am not denying that there is some underlay inflation. You unvrkw mentioned that there aren't many discounted prices out there in support of inflation scare theory, this is not true my friend. Let me take this opportunity to say that I booked 16 days in Tenerife in September in a 4start hotel half board, return fly and car hire included for £650. Now this may be an opportunistic bargain but about inflation I believe in market dynamics, if prices get too high, consumer will stop consume and price will come down. Next post...

Let me say unvrkw this guy you are following is a bit dramatic, often the truth is right in the middle. I mean gold at 10000....I heard that before, maybe in 100 years time. Is easy to make prediction without setting deadlines....
I think there will be new high in the market. Who knows maybe even Tuesday coming.....but for sure the market look overbought and sp are not reacting to good news on the up side, as they should. A market correction will bring new lower entry opportunities... lost of cash around and negative interest is you don't do anything with your cash, inflation would push even more people to seek returns, and is not going to be 2% 10 years US bonds that will attract capitals out of the stock market. I am for a May/June correction maybe 10% and then slowly back upwards.

https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures-streaming-chart
I see more a correction back to the blue up trendline....but is a guess work.

Thanks NelsontheDog and Thanks verasity for the tips I will take a look...

unvrkw I am starting to see your point about doom days to come, although I can't agree on few things.
Recently I have been focusing soo much on fundamentals of PGM and Iron ore, that I lost contact with the broad market. Fortunately your post made me to switch on back Bloomberg TV which I haven't followed for a while and got some confirmation on what your saying.
Have also noticed that although my miner shares are coming out with fantastic results, the sp is failing to make new high, therefore decided to go back in cash 75% and see what happens.
I remember "Sell in May and go away" maybe this year is happening....
On technical since little before 2021 the S&P index has broke higher resistance trend, starting from 2018 while the RSI is still trending lower and lower, a mega sell signal. (when price go higher but RSI fail to follow higher)
Now assuming that a correction is coming, the next question is going to be how low it will go. I think with these miners (PGM and Iron ore) we are in a good place because the fundamentals are very good, but at the moment they are trading water because of overbought index among other things. In the case of Fxpo for example recent ups looks been a bounce from Russian troops backing down, more than a sustained trend, 447P is also all time top and next Q2 and H1 Results are in July and August, if market corrects fxpo will retrace like any other share.
Thing is as you say unvrkw if the correction is going to be sharp can not last long, or it would reach too low levels so either sharp and quick correction or slow and longer...I am more for one month or two correction rather than 6 months or more.
On inflation as I said imo it is an economic tool used by Fed and bond holders and financial institution to manipulate the market short terms, more than a real thing that would affect the disposable income of families, hence the effect on the main market is much smaller compared with the tsunami of cash that is regularly pumped by central banks, ultimately the rate is still decided by the central banks and they won't rise it anytime soon. Lets not confuse the 10 years bond rate with inflation, they are 2 completely different things.

Sirius50
for what I understand the FX effect on profit change (in this case negative ) because costs incurred in ZAR appreciate compare to financial reporting in Dollars. This is mitigated buy sale price in dollar increase (I suppose the edging is already in commodities prices go up when dollar go down).
Possibly the best way to manage cash at bank for SLP is to keep it in ZAR and receive a decent interest to mitigate for local inflation, then maybe they could edge the future price of PGM but not because of FX fluctuation.....

WOWWW $4576/oz Average PGM.

Anyhow I can't see short/mid terms a better place to be than commodities. Have done lots of research to differentiate which kind of commodities and it looks base metals and PGM are the winner for many reasons.....
I am 100% in iron and PGM and missing copper because I remember reading that although demand is strong also supply is potentially strong, beside can't see many copper producers undervalued around, possibly I am too late for copper. Oil voice around taking about $80/barrel if it happens will be a top for a quick retrace, too much supply at these prices but then again it is a very political commodity so short terms anything is possible. But PGM and Iron ore for me are going to be the winners for years to come. I am reading more and more steel demand coming from China, which also produce it for most of the south Asia countries and India, meanwhile supply is very limited for sure this 2021 year but probably also in 2022.
https://www.mining.com/web/fortescue-third-quarter-shipments-flat-due-to-weather-disruptions/
Another disappointing supply number....

unvrkw
an equity drop 60%.....for real?
You mean almost double the drop from Covid19?

Some support may come from the Dollar.
If rate are to rise, the payments on dollar denominated debit form developing countries, can only be attenuated by dollar devaluation. It would also help the market as Fed money pumping going forward might slow down.

Price looks trapped at all time high day candle close at 449.07 almost 10 years ago 28/04/11. Is great to see price making many attempt to go past this level (why not with iron ore at these prices) yesterday $226/t is not retracing much and one could think is going to move even higher, but frankly I wouldn't mind for it just to stay at this levels.......Fxpo sp past 450ish has no more resistance levels, who known with half year result coming and more dividends where is the limit, we are trading at just a little more than forward PE of 2 making more than £1billion profit per year. Lets see this or next week if we smash 450p

Bananaman2 I also hold foreign shares in my ISA on is Zimplat (ASX) which by the way has a similar forward PE of THS......Totally undervalued. I was just trying to understand a bit more about lows and regulations. Appreciate Ilja Graulich from THARISA intervention, but possibly now that we know a bit more on the matter, the best is to contact your broker for final clarification.

Although I am not 100% sure in regard of ISA accounts.....
For example is possible to hold foreign shares in ISA and when those shares are listed in more than one foreign country, the shares allowed in ISA are the one from the primary listing. Now I suppose that if the Cyprus exchange hold the register but share are not listed noting will change but is this possible? Is this a new thing due to Brexit? Under which regulation will the shares come, UK or Cyprus?

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/china-importing-sa-coal-pgms-in-a-greener-world-make-headlines-2021-01-14
Maybe been posted already but is enlightening to realise how much are important PMG metals.
I guess the markets and trends got a bit deflected by Tesla/Musk meteorite and its followers, but more and more business, governments and research is happening on Hydrogen Electricity and therefore the use of PGM.
This Swedish company is planning to produce steel completely on Hydrogen power, it would be the first.
https://www.ssab.co.uk/news/2021/04/hybrit-ssab-lkab-and-vattenfall-building-unique-pilot-project-in-lule-for-largescale-hydrogen-storag

Indeed Sotolo
I was wondering the same, possibly by Nov 2020 the market started to see reopening of economies, more request of Platinum cars sales etc.

unvrkw
I see where you come from....it happen to me some time when I try to get too much information in.
The normal outcome is that I diversify too much and start to buy all sort of shares, making it even more difficult to follow strategies...Warren Buffet said those that diversify are people that don't know where to invest and although it sound a bit presumptuous, there is a bit of truth in it.
I am looking at the indexes these days and the most they retrace is few %, last time I sensed fear in the market was recently the bond rate rise...what happened to that? Economic indicators these days are all manipulated by Government and Fed statements, interventions, the media and the way they sell news to the public and distortions by changing the rules of the game. In the end possibly the most difficult thing to predict is when a market crash will occur.
In view of these things I am trying to stick to very few investments and trends for 2 reasons, first because I am not able to follow many trends and shares, and secondly because if I get it right I would maximise returns. In theory unvrkw if government keep pumping money the market should keep going, is it not the reason we got some tech companies at astronomical PE? About inflation yes maybe...but if is gradual and accompanied by more cash circulating around it should improve companies revenue, the real danger is "stagflation" this is why Governments around the western world are not just buying bonds and debits but also spending in infrastructures, the game is create jobs and modernise. If the manage to do so is a good thing.

My numbers are very vague and on top of that I am not a professional.
I make for 2021 sales some $600 Mil coming from PGM and $230 Mil from Chrome.
Last year 2020 result are to be interpreted, roughly I get EBITA at 18% on H1, at 28% on FY/20 and at 36% on H2 Rev.
18/28/36% is the growing exponential but who knows when capex/opex have been recognised including PGM prices.
Therefore to look at H2 EBITA could be misleading, because H1/H2 revenue difference was $18mil. but all in costs in H2 were $23mil less, meaning that EBITA in H2 didn't increased because of PGM prices.
Given this unpredictability including grade% of ore and the Chrome operation I often have different approach in guessing valuation.
If for 2020 average PGM realised price was $1700 and for 2021 is $4000, on constant volumes the difference in prices should be all profit (in theory) in practice is never like that....
Still I am guessing 2021 net profit will be around £200million at current prices, therefore half of today market cap.
Possible?

Interesting graph comparing Platinum, Gold and USD Index.
Since March 2020 and massive USD printing obviously Gold and PL started rising but then from November 2020 the 2 metals when opposite ways, PL up Gold down. Anyone view is welcomed....