Member Info for LuckyLuciano

ragnarlothbrok it seems you give it a try as well.......

Have been reading the Seeking Alpha article and the first thing one notice is how many contradiction are there.
It seems the writer has set out to first to scare investors away from Sibanye-Stillwater and then look for the reason why this should de the case.
The only truth about this article is that Rhodium price is super volatile. The article itself admits that forecasting RH price is almost impossible....
Another analogy that imo is completely wrong is to compare the dramatic RH drop in price during Covid19 with what cold happen again this year, due to reduce deficit of RH supply. Indeed the only two dramatic drop in RH price I see on my graph occurred one in 2008 credit crunch and another 2020 covid19 and the reason was not for oversupply but for reduced demand which is completely another matter.
Below is another article on Rhodium surely some of you have read it already.
Is dated September 2020 and at some point predict RH price to drop to $10000 by now.....This to show how difficult is to predict RH price.
https://www.mining.com/rhodium-price-rockets-to-all-time-high/

My take is that Rh is traded over the counter and its price move out of sentiment as much as market sup/dem.
With the reopening of economies there should be a sustained support in price as demand for new cars improves.
On a technical view (yes I am going to make a fool of my self) the price will probably drop to the 24000 level incidentally also first Fib support and is unlikely will make new high, but definitely will not collapse this year, unless we have another pandemic or something similar.

..yes all commodities and metals are on the down side of recent. In my view many commodities price are looking for recent support levels and will bounce back. They have raised too fast too soon recently mainly only on the back of Chinese economy and with the reopening of the rest of the world economies, commodities prices will be supported at these levels but with high volatility. Some price pressure on stratospheric commodities price is a good thing imo. The danger of inflation feat to the market would be fat too damaging than a normal readjustment of prices, the main objective now is some stability and been able to keep these price levels for a longer time frame.

Make it what you will, yesterday 3 trades above buy asking price 2x 100000 1x4000000 shares, quite big and has to be an institution. Unless the mm is allowing selling above ask price......Today though quite few sells going trough at 148.88. Doesn't mater what the price is static. I too think that when the price will move will be quick and possibly also with relative low volumes.

Pl been considered one of the precious metal use to have an inverse correlation to USD Index. At the same time a similar inversed correlation is usually going on between US index and USD Index. I might been speaking too soon but today I see USD Index down and market down as well. It seems that Platinum has been affected by main index sentiments and today it has retraced in sympathy with the rest of the market. Is puzzling to see the market in this conundrum....if down pressure is due to inflation it should be a good thing because it means the consumption is rising fast and faster with the complete reopening of the economies...But a down dollar index as well and the market could signal that there is not so much confidence in the underling economies, all this create lot of volatility. Time to keep calm and carry on....as someone says.

Considering that toady trading update was already in the knows, imo the sp is not doing too bad. All miners are in red including the main indexes and PGM prices are not having the best day either.

Sotolo you reading is perfect is the announcement that was not clear....
To your questions if any of us knew the answers possibly would be making more money playing the lottery. My guess on the sp is that these value stocks have a delay reaction to good news, but eventually the price will reflect fundamentals.
Since these results the average price of PGM sold by Ths have increased some $1000/oz, 78% of which should be going straight to the profit numbers. They sold PGM at $3290/oz in H1 and in April price was $4011, with Platinum and Palladium rising further 10% to these days... PGM prices will be sustained by reopening of economies and controlled car emissions. One thing I am awaiting also to happen is platinum price to react to dollar depreciation which to date hasn't been so evident.....

Soto I think it referred to H1 2020

I am reading that apparently this is the nature of value stocks sp movements like THS. Growth stocks move with expectations before fundamentals, value stocks move once/after the fundamentals improve. Lets wait H1 results and see what happens....
No doubt inflation fears is creating some panic among investors but the Fed will never rise rate to kill the market...Possibly if price increases will go too far, will choke demand and readjust inflation. It doesn't make sense to talk about rate increase, when in few months time they are meant to print few more trillions for infrastructures and other matters.

Just gone trough buy 419 shares, spread 143/147 price 149, UT.
Not complaining but it seems the mm can do what they like with sp. Lets hope they decided to make it rise.

today two 50k buys and the price goes down....

I am wondering if FI sells have cleared out...Friday were almost all buys with a mysterious 155k at 148p occurred at 9am buy showing at day close . On has to wonder why the mm is paying so much with the timing of buy or sells, also would be helpful is the F@KERS would reduce the spread.

Thanks Mike for the numbers
I will spend the day trying to understand it and learn something more on PGM..

On revenue I am considering production numbers because sale numbers are not given in the quarters updates. So I get roughly 75k PMG at average $2850/oz and 730k chrome at average $145/t for a total of $320millions.
I think to be more in line with Mike for rev and profit and I definitely expect a rerating starting from coming results, also SLP had a delayed sp increase after results and THS deserve a much better rerate. What I am starting to understand with value socks and in particular miners is that the sp move after numbers....opposite to growth and secular socks like techs, where sp moves much before expected numbers ..... I suppose is the nature of the game for some reasons that I can't really understand completely...but is like this. So looking for ward for H1 financials and by end of the year who knows...

Trying to predict roughly numbers and comparing sp with previous results.
Mid November 2020 THS came out with 2020 results. The sp at the time was around 80p and eps for the full year was some 12.5p ($/£ 1.30) for a PE of 6.5.
The sp after 2020 results raised some 50% to 120p in one month....
Are we going to expect something similar with H1 results?
I am expecting £60 million net profit for H1 and again a PE of 6.5 only for H1 result with PGM prices much higher incurrent H2.....
The sp of THS puzzled me big way....It does seems to be a share that moves on results and 2020 rise was mainly after financial results. My prediction numbers are very approximate and surly incorrect on the up or down side .....

CCC. never mind I am sure you know what is going on. My apologies.

CCC. you can lough as much you like.....
Last time I checked people can post as much as they like on any free speech board.
Some people have more to say than others, but this is not a good reason to come patronising the space.
Moreover a post like yours starting with WE do seem.....is a joke. Are you a Royal to use the pluralis majestatis so shamelessly in your lonely post. I was hoping at least the with such introduction you would have brought some new input to the ongoing conversation, in the end is just a recap of what has been debated till now. Well at least you tried.

unvrkw Its clear inflation is a factor to consider now for anyone investing in the stock market.
Let me try to explain where the danger comes from and please correct me if I say something stupid.
Directly for FXPO the danger is rising cost of production prices, but that is more than offset by rising of iron ore price.
Indirectly and not only for Fxpo too high inflation would kill consumer spending if wages don't rise as well. Lots of cash as been given away this time not only to bankers and financers but also to commune mortals, many have rushed to buy the latest useless thing and saving apparently as gone up during pandemic, possibly inflation can be sustained if doesn't rise too much, and then there is always borrowing which rate these days is at all time low.
The Fed will always maintain that they are not bothered by inflation and I believe them. In my opinion this is a speculative inflation and also a global inflation driven by the East, it is a good place to be if a business produce staff that China needs....In my opinion the danger is bond rate not inflation. As I understand it the rate of bonds rise when the price of bond decline. So when fixed asset funds sell bonds the bond rate rise, which in theory if it rise too high would attract capitals and rebalance. I am not sure what is the direct relationship between bond rate and inflation any explanation is welcomed...
Anyhow to make this post shorter, I think the stock market will keep rising , is the ultimate investment place and the best way to finance enterprises. Sure noting goes up in a straight line but will keep going up. I am a bit weary when there are sudden spike in prices not supported by some evidence and even more weary when price rise on negative news like Friday US job creation report, this is not contrarian theory is a real negative new. Then you get $20 iron ore price increase for Fxpo, is like been on a boat abandoned in the middle of the ocean hoping the wind will take you to the promised land. The funny thing is that I often chose to swim and end up missing the boat.

will be interesting to see a retrace how low will go. As things stand the market is super bullish and any retrace will be minimal, but at this levels even $40 retrace would still make $203/t a dream price for Fxpo.

Sure lets get back to fundamentals for Fxpo. At current iron ore price I make around 300$/t iron ore and some £1.5 billion net profit (this year will be les because the average price obviously will be lower than 300$/t) This is massive a market cap of £5.8 billion would make a PE of just less than 4 and a sp at £10. I am reading more and more the words Commodities super cycle like a self fulfilling prophesy.
But beside Fxpo fundamentals possibly would be wiser to debate, without been negative but just objective the dangers of such unbelievable commodities price increase. I am particularly astonished by recent price rise, it seems to rise faster and faster which is never a good sign