Member Info for LuckyLuciano

I am not 100% sure, but seem to remember reading somewhere that on the 19th April, there is scheduled a meting between countries (Germany, Russia, France, USA, Turkey....not sure) that oversee the cease fire between Russian separatist rebels and Ukrainian army back in 2014. If this is the case it could poove a turning point...

Thank you TigerByTheTail
is always welcome to get some new investment ideas.

VanVan
there has been many attempt to forecast Fxpo future earning on this board and although yours is possibly the most optimistic of all, no doubt Fxpo is one of the most undervalued company out there.
Please don't underestimate the risk attached to it due to the Russians and the difficulty to read future outcomes...
Add to that the fact that Fxpo asset is all in Ukraine single mine operation ....and one can understand why people with lots of regret are selling here. Really a shame.

Thy did say in financials that fist half 2021 production will be a bit lower for then recover in H2. Still expecting some 12m/t sale for 2021. No mentioning of higher iron ore price, favourable market conditions or for that matter Russian troops..... A typical Fxpo production report. I suspect it will be trading in a range for a while and doubt will go past 400p especially with the Russian issue, dividend in may are not certain though probable. I will still look for a re-entry around 360.

Iron ore miners:
Champion Iron Ore (CIA) Traded in Australia and Canada, Grange Resources (GRR)Traded in Australia...To me the 2 best mid/long terms. CIA will double production next year all financed and current PE around 6. GRR small pellet producers with other assets current PE at 2.5 These companies will present Q1 in a couple of week with sale numbers that should reflect higher iron ore price. DYOR.

...mentioned also on Bloomberg television as mass military drill from Russia. Drill meaning not so threatening, still I would venture to say that today was a bounce back up in fxpo sp, but we can not exclude more lows....Coming up Q1 numbers results will be on production not reflecting higher iron ore price sale. Still awaiting a re-entry below my selling price if it happens, if not hopefully my other iron ore miners will compensate for that.

Have to agree as well.....I had too much % of my investments in Fxpo relying on fundamentals but forgetting the geopolitical risk, hence having to sell and now for me is more expensive to get in. Had much less I would have probably let it run...Have spread my investment in GRR, CPI, BHP, RIO and ORL to have also an exposure to different metal/commodities. Still awaiting to re-enter Fxpo though might be at higher price.

.......I would add that most of this crisis is caused by Biden.
Why did he feel the need to go calling Putin an assassin worldwide on the public domain. Did he really need to prove publicly that he is still a hard on man? At the age of almost 90? Really.......?????
And what about the consequences .....does he really care? I had high admiration of Biden but possibly I knew little of him.
Is sad to think that often lives and destiny of so many people in the world, depend on so few egocentric bastards leaders of us all.

TigerByTheTail I am sure you know more and better than me on the matter. I am just sourcing info from the net, but as you say the naval base was Russian and given by Ukraine to the Russian till 2042. Can you envisage a different solution given the events occurred in2012/13? It all started with revolutions in Ukraine squares against filo-Russian government. It seems to me that Ukrainians are used by the West and Russia for their geopolitical interest. In the end I doubt the west will do anything if the Russian decide to take part of Ukraine for whatever strategic reasons, this is also the west fault. One as to consider that if we put a proud nation like Russia to the ropes, when they have noting to lose...is likely that they would/will resolve to drastic solutions. years and year of rhetoric sanctions from the west , best described as the most hypocritical politics ever seen. isolating the Russian to their onw world and dimension, no economical or private development.....what could they do if not build one of the most powerful military machine in the world? The west is well aware of this and this is why they will do nothing is Russia invade, beside the fact that most of the west is still battling with covid-19, never mined a was against Russia.

Nwa456
I have to agree with you didn't realised that some of my post can be seen as "subtle derampers" my apologies.
That was no my intention I think I mentioned that I would buy back Fxpo if and when the time will come. So nothing subtle from me...The ifs and buts from my comments on current Russian/Ukraine matters are all to do with the uncertainty of circumstances. In one of my post I have even tried to make a chronological analyses of facts to try to predict an outcome of current situation, but even that is probably anyone guess in the end, especially regarding fxpo sp direction. In the long terms though the fact are clear: Fxpo sp will be much higher (iron ore price beside) if things remain the same , no Russian invasion, doesn't matter what the west would do about it. So will the Russian invade or not? Is the water problem a real issue for them? Have they been provoked by a document circulating declaration from the Ukraine president with the intention to regain Crimea? Do anyone know personally Putin so the we can all place our bet and get rich?

Nice to see some people need insults in absence of better vocabulary. Never mind everybody is welcomed and I surely am not the patronising type that decide who is in or out in a constructive conversation. We are here to make money and the best we feed the topics with valuable info the better is for everyone reading.....
Never been god at History but on this I think I got it right....
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In 1783, Crimea was annexed by the Russian Empire as the result of the Russo-Turkish War (1768–1774). Following the Russian Revolution of 1917, Crimea became an autonomous republic within the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic in the USSR. During World War II, Crimea was downgraded to the Crimean Oblast after its entire indigenous population, the Crimean Tatars, were deported to Central Asia, an act recognized as a genocide by Ukraine and three other countries. In 1954, it was transferred to the Ukrainian SSR from the Russian SFSR.[5]

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was re-established as an independent state in 1991, and most of the peninsula was reorganized as the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, while the city of Sevastopol retained its special status within Ukraine. The 1997 Partition Treaty on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet partitioned the former Soviet Black Sea Fleet and allowed Russia to continue basing its fleet in Crimea: both the Ukrainian Naval Forces and Russian's Black Sea Fleet were to be headquartered in Sevastopol. Ukraine extended Russia's lease of the naval facilities under the 2010 Kharkiv Pact in exchange for further discounted natural gas.
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If you further bother to investigate what is "under the 2010 Kharkiv Pact"
You'll find out that Russia has been given Crimea till 2042 by Ukraine.
I am not pro Russia, but I know very well how the west can conceal information to manipulate the masse opinion. Anyhow I am not here to talk politics but to understand what to do with my investment..
Some here seems to make decision out of principle and the hearth, or idealism....
Well this is admirable and if I had few billion $ I would do the same, starting with buying a massive forest with lots of trees encouraging bio diversity and all that...
People post on here are charged with their emotions and insults are for free, one has to wonder all this charged up anger where is coming from ….What is the real reason.

I am not sure how it all happen...Some claimed that the Ukrainian president with backing of US , de-facto declared war to Russia by producing a document with the intent to reannex Crimea. If this is the case I can't blame the Russian amassing troops at the border.....If this is the case though is most likely that if Ukraine/NATO don't invade Crimea the Russian won't do much. The Russian don't get involved in Ukraine but soppy army to the rebel separatist group, this is how they act in Ukraine and if it stay like this not much will change. unfortunately Ukrainian army and Russian separatist rebels have been fighting and killing each other for years....Another thing will be if Russian army enter the Ukraine but this imo will happen only if someone invade Crimea. I understand Crimea was given to the Russian and Russia has there a massive military base for decades. Can't blame them trying to keep it. About the south corridor to water supply...not sure if this is the case it means that would be a premediate act from the Russians. But if all this was instigated first by the Ukrainian president would be a different thing.
No regrets to walk out of Fxpo (with lots of regret). It has now become a trading share on sentiments and technical. The fundamentals are out of the window. Volatility will increase dramatically...I can see opening low for then go back up dramatically and close even lower.....or whatever else depending on future events....For sure £1 per share would be tenting but won't happen not even £2....

I wouldn't be surprised to find out this has been instigated by the USA. Politically for them this will reinforce the need Europe has to rely on USA protection via Nato and reinforcing a geopolitical relationship that was deteriorating with Europe more willing to do business with China and Russia. The USA warmongers are coming back lets hope it won't deteriorate....

Same here had too much invested in fxpo 80% of my portfolio.
Thing is that going forward many journalist will start writing on this matter, with conjectures on what could happen if the Russian invade etc.....The news carousel has started and who knows when will end...Is not really what is actually happens on the ground, sadly many Ukrainian soldiers had died recently without causing any concern, is when the media circus start that worries me. Fxpo fundamentals are intact and if no major disaster occur on the ground it will see higher price imo . When is now anyone guess.

Thing is Biden recently been seen as old man and weak by the media...…may take the opportunity to drag on this issue with Russia to improve his macho/juvenile image on the international scene. Putin for what I understand just finished some military exercises in the area and all he did is to leave some extra troops near Ukrainian borders.... just to make the news probably. I don't think the Russian will invade, is not their war...these are so called Russian separatists against Ukrainian gov. Russia is just selling arms to them and use them as leverage, but they are not interest in Ukraine as long as the pipeline of gas/oil trough Ukraine keep flowing and that Crimea remain Russian, I think they have and always had some 30000 military there in Crimea. Possibly noting will happen but this thing may drag on for months....

Sorry EagleBlue1 I don't understand exactly what are surprised about.....
It seems to me that with your post you are assessing the current circumstances better than anyone else and I honestly whish you are correct. n
I am not there to be right I am here to make money and when I see my holding going down I have to make decisions. I reiterate that Fxpo is possibly the most underrated miner out there, but I also have learned that the market is always right. For market I mean the majority of people point of views... I have tried top be a contrarian, at best it works 50/50. My conclusion before selling are not just based on the Russian event, I am also considering that coming Q1 production numbers on 6/7 April won't be such a catalyst for sp movement, that we are past one of the biggest dividend from the company and that H1 financial are still far away. Fxpo may surely be at £6/7 buy the end of the year but it is quite long time away, meanwhile Putin play games (not so funny has people are dying over there). I have not sold after divi and saw my investment going down ..looking at the mid/long term prospect but... war and political tensions are something I am not prepared to see trough.

Never fall in love with a share. Obviously depending on how much profit one is making, is possible to hold, but my profit would have been eroded quickly as I think is likely fxpo will hit 330 support. It looks like there will be more posturing and bickering between Russia and the West before things will eventually normalise, all this news will hit fxpo sp doesn't matter how good the company is performing....sad really. Unless this issue is resolved officiously with a meeting Biden/Putin or something like that.....there will be pressure going forward. imo. Next market opening day Fxpo sp may be hit hard with news filtering, unless meanwhile something diplomatic happened to resolve the issue. I don't think the Russian will invade the are just interested in the militarised Crimea, for them taking on board Ukraine is a headache they don't need, is not that they are running out of land or resources.
looking to renter fxpo when things are more stable, depending on price obviously.

Unless I am missing something this is another high grade pellet producer, (some 3m/t year) in a politically stable country, with at current iron ore price projected PE around 2/2.5, and another project (75%) owned with more than 1 billion iron ore reserve in Queensland. Main operation been in Tasmania.
I am already invested but will add.
Also thinking to reinvest in Champion Iron Ore (Canada/Australia quoted) CIA.

To donmac101 and SR123
If wasn't for you I would still be watching fxpo sp going down and wondering why ........

Long term sp support at 357 looks like going to be broken..

Also out here ...this is an unpredictable issue that could escalate, in any case medial will cover this for a while which is no good for fxpo sp.
Just yesterday in Italy they jailed an Italian official selling military secrets to the Russians, plus Biden been not the same friend of the Russian like Trump. Is unfortunate that Fxpo is caught in the middle....such a great company.
Anyhow probably will reinvest my cash in two other iron ore mining company on my radar.

I see lots of large sells going trough. Large investors are getting out. Me thinking the same...