Member Info for LuckyLuciano

I would add that on this board, we read a lot about PGM production and deficits but very little about car production trend, which possibly is of major importance.

If I can point out that criticising people posting opinions that are contrarian, to the greatens of THA future, wont change the sp and the market sentiments. Mind you... looking at Ths volume of share traded daily, is possible that even one investor opinion could change the direction of the sp. (jokes a part)
I can understand the frustration when there are expectation of sp to go up a lot, and in stead the opposite happens. What is annoying and puzzling is the reaction of some people which refuse to try to find reasons......Imo any contrarian view based on facts is welcome, possibly even more than lots of ramping up talks we normally read in investors boards, including mine when I am invested. We are not sheep and if good to doubt our own decisions, actually it is a great sign of intelligence. So even if one is invested in a share why shouldn't be able to have some doubt and share it with fellow investors?

ragnarlothbrok
indeed the sales going trough with Ths have changed from regular round volumes number to randomised volumes. My guess is that maybe the institutional seller has reduced of stopped but now is the retail investor that is selling. Reason could be that sp is below desired pre agreed price for institutional investor to exit, but also because having broke short term support some retail investors are heading for the door!?

Not just THS sp is under pressure (albeit with the additional issue of the resident seller) but imo almost every mining comp. out there has reach its sp peaks for now. This was predictable considering the speed and the highs that many commodity prices have reached of late, noting goes up in a straight line. Considering the pros and cons right now for the commodities sector for me the cons have the advantage. You can single out one company one share and have all the argument you like in favour of that company, but if the sector is on the retreat all comps. will be affected. Even SPL short lived effort to run higher after result has come down to earth. Investors should focus more on macros for now whereas fundamentals become a less important factor. This is time to identify sp ranges on retrace an find entry points for the mid/long term timeframe, or trade ranges if commodities prices keep coming down. Perversely lower commodities prices could be a good thing for producers because it would decrease the risk for high inflation and therefore support the main indexes. It is just an example of how difficult is right now to predict share prices going forward....

Interesting video and comments a good way to get a bit more informed on ths.
On the strip ratio my take is that during rising prices companies could be mine lower strip ratios area and vice versa...
Strange that on the video they didn't mention about the resident seller as reason for the depressed sp.
No doubt though THS lack of explanation on may financial items and accounts, create a sense of uncertainty in investor mind, as if already the company structure wasn't easy to understand.
On the total revenue not matching average pgm basket price due to refinery costs...it is plausible and make sense but then again there should be more simple way for investors to decipher and understand these issues. For example is the refinery cost a percentage constant of does it change with ore grade/ volumes etc??
On chrome tax, in the video is mentioned a tax on revenue whereas Visitor mentioned a possible tax for buyers (China) to pay.. In any case not knowing is the worst situation for investors.
Lastly their forecast PE for 2021 in my opinion is a bit optimistic as they consider a Rhodium price at 27000, but nobody can say that it won't be even higher.

https://investorintel.com/markets/technology-metals/technology-metals-intel/why-lithium-and-rare-earths-are-truly-a-bull-market-and-the-ev-transition-is-just-bul/

.......just an intuitive non fact base theory.

I wonder if any of you has the feeling that lately, commodities (including pmg) are moving in sync with the main indexes.
After the major downs of covid19 in 2020, many commodities prices have bounced back up on technical and some fundamentals on expectations and trends. But beside some headlines from China crackdown on prices , it seems that many commodities have topped and now trending with main indexes..

toptiger
many thank for the explanation it all make more sense now...

What I found puzzling is how the MM can control the sp direction of Ths, this is frustrating if not scary and is the main reason I decided to leave....
What made me particularly weary is not the fact that the mm is keeping the sp low due to some selling orders but the opposite. There has been many days where the sell orders were far superior in numbers and volumes, and yet THS sp close unchanged, as if there is an agreement between the seller and the mm to exit above a certain range. Anyone with more experience on these matters welcomed to comment.

Thanks all and thanks to those that teacher me one thing or two about PGM mining operations...

....by the way this is my last post on ths for now. No point for me...if I am not invested. All the best to all invested here I am sure it will make new heights.

Sotolo I am mostly in cash my only hold is GRR (AU) iron ore miner with a valuation so ridiculous, that I am prepared to wait next financial result some 10 month away, to see fundamental reflected in the sp.
I have to reset my trading strategy, have made too many mistakes of late and my investment keep reaching all time high for then retrace...now down 15% from top. Did very well in 2020 with biotech by trading news flow albeit taking some risks.... But now is completely another game. It seems to me that for one reason or another these days buying out of fundamentals alone is not necessarily a winning strategy. For miners what is getting in the way is the price of commodities been at all time high and China making lots of noise. I have been shouting that commodities prices will keep rising because not only China but also the rest of the world will increase demand ...now I am not so sure. Possibly the truth is in the middle and commodities prices may just settle below these high...we will see. The fact is that lots of comm price increase has been priced in the sp of many miners (I know many disagree with this ) and now many of us are invested awaiting to see the financial results. With this in mind looking at the technical is possible that some miners sp will be in the range for a while pushed up by fantastic fundamentals and down by China war on commodities prices, and languish demand from other economies among other reasons ...I will try to re-enter on retrace if opportunity arise. Companies on my radar are: Zimplat, Fxpo, Champion iron ore, Tharisa,

..by the way normally when i exit a share it starts to rise...

indeed H1 results are out and for what beautiful they can be the sp has not find new high, in fact we can be happy that it has not tanked as normally happens when numbers are already known...Out of this we still have a seller...today 100k sell fist trade in the morning...just to say hello. Well folks i am out, till the seller is gone this is not for me.

Hi TBTT
thanks for more details on Samancor indeed been a private company i suppose they can do a bit what they like with operations, moreover it looks themselves are owned by Kerman Group another private mining investment company....many closed boxes or Russian dolls accounting where numbers get lost in translation. Anyhow slp is making a nice living out of it till it last....As you say slp must have reached top valuation by now, whereas unlet pgm price collapse ths as still lots of room for upside. Hoping for some positive forward guidance from tomorrow H1 results.

Yes Sotolo one way or another the chromo story gets a bit in the way when reflected in the sp. But then if one believe in market efficiency that should be reflected already in the price....When comparing ths with slp most valuations get lost if one try to be too specific, but if I understand it correctly the main difference between the two is that ths mine its ore, whereas slp recycle its product from other operations. That ths produce double pgm than what spl produces . That ths also has a chrome mining and refining operation, which bring also the question mark of taxation. Last an possibly more marginal than above points is that ths has a much larger ore mine reserve producing/developed and at exploration stage, slp has only exploration stage mining rights.
One thing that gets me out of these operation is how is possible that slp is able to get chrome tailing dump and produce pgm with much higher margins than ths?
Why ths is not doing the same with its chrome operation, and if is doing it why ths is not more profitable than slp?
It occur to me that a company treating tailing should be les profitable not more....no doubt the market is pricing in mainly this side of the story with slp, add to that the clever management policy of share buy back and this is why you get this high valuation. With ths given the unlikely possibility for its business model to change any time soon, i suppose the strong points are increasing production in short terms, and yes.....if they will share some profit with shareholders or buy back some shares would be nice.

I am looking at London price
https://www.investing.com/commodities/rhodium-99.99-futures
In any case there has been quite a drop albeit from stratospheric heights. Will be interesting to see if it settle at some point on fib retracement levels. I have the 50% fib from 2020 lows at 18000ish.

sp creeping up slowly and it seems the seller is having a rest.

First time I see a spread of 1p.