Member Info for LuckyLuciano

...on THS sp we have touched 2 important levels of fib retracements, drawn from two different lows, 36p and 70p.
Both levels match with 120p which is also the January retrace range .

Try to do some technical on Rhodium is more difficult than winning the lottery. Its unopen market price and been easy to store for national or industrial strategic reserves, possibly throw all the technical out if the window.
Still by tracing a fib levels on recent rise there are two interesting supports...
From the very bottom price of 573 to the top there is a 18400/38% and 15000/50% support levels, retracing the fib from most recent lows at 7525 still to the top the 50% is at roughly the same 38% level of previous fib or 18400/18500.
Could it be that at 18500 there is going to be a meaningful bounce back up in price?!
Another aspect of PGM prices is that even if Rhodium price goes much lower it doesn't mean that Platinum or Palladium will follow or other meatal will follow and they may compensate for Rhodium demise...
Chromium price looks good considering that is used in the steel industry which seems to be on the up for the foreseeable future...

https://www.mining.com/web/russell-chinas-first-round-of-copper-zinc-aluminum-auctions-fails-to-impress/

https://www.mining.com/iron-ore-price-rises-while-fitch-sees-weaker-consumption-capping-gains-in-h2/

Above possibly a balance view of current iron ore price trend.
China attempt to control iron ore price have clearly failed, even the last saw prices dropping at begin of week for then rise again at the end. I was reading the for this year Australia export of iron ore to China is up 20% year on year....and with infrastructure spending around the world there is not only China that need the metal.
Iron ore is the kind of metal among all in the best position for a super cycle of high prices. Its supply restrain due to underinvestment in exploration, high demand due to its use in so many industries, and the difficulty any country has to store strategic reserves for the rainy days, makes its price reflect market demand like no other metal. It is to be see if in H2 there will be more supply coming out from producers or less demand. my feeling is that at worst price will stabilise, not decline, which is fantastic for Fxpo and dividend pay-out.
I fail to buy back in on recent retrace at bottom 400p but happy with my re-entry and thinking to add more. Q2 and H2 approaching for many miners not only Fxpo, will revive share prices and is likely we could see Fxpo going past recent high at 500ish. For anyone invested in Russian miners there is a bad new, been higher export taxes, another sign that ferrous metals are in hot demand worldwide for the foreseeable future.
https://www.mining.com/web/russia-prepares-to-hit-metals-firms-with-2-3b-in-export-taxes/

I definitely agree on the spread is a daylight robbery and this is one of the reason the low volume....which is also bad for the sp.

Yes I was looking to add at 400 but not quick enough. Have the feeling this opportunity won't come back. Before H2 results another catalist will be Q2 production in July.... Iron ore price dipped on Monday on China trying to control price... Today price is back higher, there is no way China will be able to do anything about higher prices.

...right as if positive or negative comments from this boar, would change the destiny of THS sp and its operation, including worldwide market dynamics and trend on PGM.
People should be able to distinguish comments if based on facts or b@****, otherwise they should not invest in the stock market. I personally welcome negative comments if based on facts, ten times more than those which shows only the positive side of a coin.
I bought back in yesterday at 125, with a view to average down in case the PGM prices misbehave..

https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_77a351fd4576edcd55353359c0efc320.png
Any view where we are going from here?
Blue line is H2/Results and Red line is possible Support

Indeed Denziiil
news of China selling national metal reserves to keep higher prices under control may have some desired effect, on metals easy to accumulate and store, like high price metals sold by the ounce, rare earth metals, silver, gold and PGM possibly even copper. But I suppose iron ore is too cheap to make sense having a strategic national reserve, the only real reserve is into the ground, either you have it or not. This is why they have to resource to scrap metal in trying to lower prices
Iron ore is the real Achille's heel it seem now also for India...

https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/iron-ore-exports-india-puts-an-end-to-decades-old-pacts-with-japan-korea/2273477/

Is in a day like this that one would expect Tharisa to post some encouraging words of reassurance.
The truth is that clearly THS management has different plans and unfortunately policies compared to SLP.
Sure preserve capitals and profit is needed for expansion and improved production, but I wonder if the company shouldn't have bought directly shares from FI, in stead of allow them to sell on the open market. How much money were/are we talking about £ 10-20 millions? And how much market cap THS has lost since this selling is going on...? If this is a reflection of the confidence the management has on THS, one can be excused to have some doubts on future execution of company plans.
Investors here are stuck with hopes of a pgm price to hold or improve and a resident seller that right or wrong, must have some reasons to sell.
Meanwhile SLP sp is taking the opposite direction, which clearly shows that is not just technical or fundamentals but there is something more to it.

Apparently in a recent research, they found out that chips can be used has catalytic converter. Only side effect is that cars tend to get fat.

....beside is puzzling to see the two different approach from US and China to curb inflation . The US Fed playing with rates (which imo will not go up) and bond purchase. The Chinese (that understand economy much better than anyone else) intervene directly by releasing resources, raw materials and metals in to the market. The funny thing is that in both cases the end result will make inflation worst.....The only hope out of all this madness is that we preserve Nature, diversity and the ecosystem. If only we would stop making babies for a while, wouldn't be easier? Anyhow sorry for the drivel...
These are interesting times indeed, particularly the commodities space is at pivotal point, where each commodity fundamentals become relevant going forward. I think iron ore is in a good place and will remain there for a good while. If one like to go down to the nitty-gritty, could argue in favour of rising cost like wages and energy prices but fortunately, on this area Fxpo is ahead of the curve. I would expect production costs higher for coming H1 results, but wouldn't be sad to complain with iron ore prices at this levels?

Many thanks very interesting piece..
Can't read anything about been auctions or fixed prices, if they mean to curb inflation the better give the metal for free.
Beside....

.........mind you today pgm prices are very much under pressure possibly due to strong dollar. Hence 120p entry could go out of the window.

Heading towards 200 ma support currently at 114p.
120 looks a good entry price.

rbrand lol
problem is trying to decide what are the right balls size, some like it big some like it small, in the end we all have to deal with our balls and be happy about it.
Any link on the chinese metal auction?

I bought some yesterday for divi but bought some more today, which at current price seems a bad idea.
Anyhow strong support at 400ish and 100 MA

back to recent lows, is anyone expecting 400p or this is going to be support?

https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_f12e9d0b5c7133e49e4775edf70f44bc.png
I am comparing THS Blue line, Zimplat Red line and the price of Rhodium in trying to figure out what's going on with prices.
Is so evident how THS sp is following the Rh. price especially of late..on the down side.
Another curious thing is how THS sp failed to rise with Rh. price for the first 3 months of 2021, possibly reason for this is FI selling.....
Zimplat is in the graph to add a side view on peers fundamentals comparison, even if there are many differences between the two companies.
For start though ZIM sp is a confirmation that it followed Rh. price much better than THS.
For a bit of fundamentals (and for what is worth) have compared PE of THS/ZIM for last 2 yeras.
The sp I considered is either the price reached after results or the prevalent price at the time of result.
In 2019 ZIM pe was 8.5 THS was 20, in 2020 ZIM pe was 4.2 THS was 5, so possible at similar valuation....Going forward there is an important fact to consider been that ZIM result for 2021 will include end of this month June, therefore Rh. price will be still considerably high, whereas THS full year results are delayed by 3 months and we don't know where Th. price is going from here, hence the selling.....
My conclusion beside if FI as stopped selling or not, is that what is affecting most THS sp is the Rh. price, this could be a great opportunity to buy at discounted price, especially because RH. price is notoriously volatile.