Member Info for LuckyLuciano

Xwave10 hi
I can see people been very sensitive, to neutral or negative comments towards LLOY and the market right now. Please let me say that you may be one of them. I know because I have been there...
IMO when Falky says ======
Just be careful.....IMHO-DYOR
Good Morning All=========
in response to vulcano post=======
yes buy the dip , FTSE is green and LLOY will follow ,nice
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From my neutral position, I am 100% with Falky.
Falky is not deramping with false information is just giving a valuable piece of advise, i the end it looks he was right.....
Is not deramping by saying the LLOY is crap, that will never make a profit or other unfounded arguments, is just saying something out of his trading experience. In the same way Falky can be called deramping then vulcano should be called out as very ramper, but this normally doesn't happens because we like to ear and reaffirm our convictions even when they are not true......
As I said if negative comments are backed with facts, links and reasonable arguments imo they are more valuable than affirmation and pack on the shoulders.

..Agree 100% with Cardinal3
as long as someone add valuable and genuine information based on facts, anybody is welcomed.

....sorry forgot, lots of big companies earning release coming, which could mess thing up.

No seriously seany123
do you expect to get a reasonable answer to your post/question?
Me I say. First right now is anyone guess what will happen tomorrow with market and sp, so many forces pulling from so many direction the only certainty is lots of volatility up or down or both, therefore I do understand where your question is coming from .
Secondly reading most of the posts content on this board, your question sound almost sarcastic......
My guess....and I repeat is just a guess. US future overnight opening high/in the green, Uk market in the green for then investor taking profits as the US future start to lose momentum....Tuesday US consumer confidence should disappoint, then we get the Fed on Wednesday and US GDP on and Core Goods on Thursday, big week coming, if the Fed reiterate rate rising.....we could end up end of the week even lower.....

...still in London and for another 3 week. Then on the 14th Feb of to Tenerife for 2 week.

Reality is whatever growth you like to measure, percent point more or less, it all comes due to massive increase in gov. debit. So the real measure should be how efficient is more gov debit for the benefit of the whole economy....Please let leave this arguments aside or I will get an ulcer...

Very difficult indeed to decipher the market right now. One thing is for sure though, the market these days is manipulated by central banks, and these days mean since QE started.....back in 2009. Cut rate and borrow more to prop up the market has been the main drive for indexes. For those which understood this trend very well and invested in growth stock saw fantastic returns. Now apparently the addicted market has to go dry and like any addicted person it will behave erratically with great volatility. I say apparently because it seems still strange to me that the Fed wants to cause a self inflicted damage to its American financial dream. Don't be surprise to ear talks of a U-turn on rate rise if Consumer confidence, Jobless Claims and GDP data come out disappointing next week... Has I said before IMO its important to understand the nature of recent increase in inflation and its context. This matter its surely open for debate but I see almost in every commodity and good price increase in the last year, reasons that are beyond increased demand, and these reasons have affected the price much more than higher consumption. The Fed its self is talking of a gradual normalization in prices, implying that rate rise if any may be not so many . Is almost like trying to find an excuse to rise rate in the knowledge that soon they may need some ammunitions to do more QE and easing.....
If I am reading all this correctly in the same way an artificially manipulated market goes up, it goes also down hence current drop. But what everyone like to know is how much the drop will go. Given recent events is reasonable to predict indexes to make higher lows, where every rise will be sold till inflation start to ease or the Fed signal a U-turn on rate rise or both.
Lots of volatility coming, and lots of economic data from US next week to mess thing up...one trend is emerging though and that is that trading banks on the wave of rate rise seems death in the water. Apparently the profits banks are making are going to pay higher wages and bonuses, at the begin of QE all the money flooding the market were also going to sustain share price and share holders, now the printing seems to go straight to bankers...
Anyhow congratulation to those with an idea where we are going from here, because I have not got a clue. I was thinking to day trade any meaningful rise...the market is bond to bounce up a little sooner or later, and I don't short, so alternatives are stay in cash or average down on the few AU Nickel miners I have got left in my portfolio.

Lots is coming out of from super overvalued shares, is interesting to see how efficient is the market right now... Correction is reaching also big blue chip techs which is a sign that its serious....
People that sells big blue chip techs to this rate are not retail investors......A correction a la 2020 would be very welcomed, all eye on main indexes technical indicators and central banks....

I am up 700% since march 2020 and not thank to UK shares. Have been trading for more than 20yeras and been waiting for a market correction like pandemic for donkeys years...
In my experience when the market goes side ways is very difficult to make money for a trader and definitely impossible if rates start to rise and QE is finished.
Right now it seems is time to step back from the market and wait for opportunities having done some good home work....this current correction could go on for moths and if you are trying to enter the market at any dead cat-bounce you'll get burned. Is not going to be easy because I have done so much research on so many stocks in to many sectors, that the temptation to get in when I see a 10% sp drop is going to be always there. I am trying to see some technical levels on main US indexes or to think at what feasible argument the media could come up with to justify an end to current market correction, but with end of QE rate rise and geopolitical going on it looks any rise will be sold off.
Again my advise if investing right now is buy little and be ready to average down....

In my opinion war will never happen in Ukraine nobody want it. I see the Russian move in Ukraine a good pretext to close the gas tap to Europe and keep prices very high.

I might have been a bit harsh on Tesco but for fish/meat and wine, in my opinion they are usless.

Gazzleberry
I am sure you are right, but is only in the last year or so that they have implemented so widely almost on every product, and especially on wine which upset me most...

Theosus
interesting reading...and what business and anybody for that matter, hate most is uncertainties. This is a killer for spending even more so than having to service a bigger debit.
Covid has exacerbate this uncertainties at any level.....
It is incomprehensible how some politicians or lets say the Gov. is allowed to embark in massive QE one minute and the next talk about rate rises. This give you lots of confidence in knowing that at the top there are people that they KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING. What a mess....

No offence I find Tesco bad quality and expensive...since Lidle and Aldi stole the spot of the cheaper stores in town, Tesco has struggle to find some identity and is now imo expensive compared to quality of product. Hence they have resourced to ClubCard

Lots of loss making companies out there will drag the market down together with LLOY imo.
I was reading (unfortunately after investing) that the best time to buy banks for a rate rise theme, is when there are talks of a rate rise (rumours) not when it actually happens. Indeed rate rises have its pro and cons regarding future profits, even for banks.
Recent Godman Sachs disappointing numbers due to cost rising has derail latest banks rise and I can see any financial results been sold off. I am going back to cash keeping an eye the severity of this correction. There are still some compelling sectors especially in trending commodities like Nickel, Lithium, and even Energy, Coal and Iron ore....the latest a bit more unpredictable. Possibly the best strategy right now, to cut out emotions, is to find an entry point in a mid/long term compelling investment and be ready to average down, but i am not prepared to do this with a bank.

If you take out inflation from GDP I am not so sure......

I don't worry about things because the Bank of England know what they are doing,£450 billion of QE plus £500 billion of Tory fiscal deficit and the country is strong again,back to 2019 austerity output supposedly.
"But that’s not why we do QE. We do it to keep inflation low and stable and support the economy. "
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/quantitative-easin==============================

Are you for real?
No wonder politician are so complacent....and the elite hide billions offshore. With people so deluded around about a system that in their eyes still works? My eyes see a free for all grab what you can system, they only try to amend things when when in danger of revolution or uprising/anarchy. But to think that a QE resolve problems is only viable if you believe that debit will be payed by someone else and you can only think like this if you are in power.

If these are the number of December Christmas period you can imagine what will be for Jan/Febr....Then again inflation may go up even if people don't spend due to supply disruption and other more sinister reasons. In my opinion there is a trend in many industries sectors where production is controlled/constrained to sustain or increases prices (ala Opec) lots of "cartels" have formed including in the energy sector. Consumer are now at the mercy of lobbies and algorithms which can predict shopping trends and increase prices or reduce supply when demands are at the highest. the opposite of globalization is happening.....and every participant is taking advantage of the chance to maximise profit. Hence we have inflation without rising consumption (stagflation). The most stupid thing that a government should do is rise rates, unless they what to please some financial lobbies in try to indebt even more those depending on credit. In stead of addressing the problems at the rout cause the Gov are playing this game of rate adjustment and QE while debits are rising to the point of no return. We are close to face the crude reality, soon most of us will have to work all day just to pay energy bills, if you live in those unbalanced economies like most of Europe, Japan etc. Our leaders (some more than others) have proved time and time again to be at best incompetent to manage a country, what is left of our (so called Democracy) is just free speech and be able to manifest our anger, all the rest is pure dictatorship. I mean ....is the House of Lord democracy, for example? The Machiavellian plan is perfect we are under the illusion to be in a democracy, meanwhile they are stealing the money and hiding it in offshore accounts....they are all at it. My monthly energy bill has gone from £130 to almost £250, meanwhile wages rise only for those that have already millions in the bank. In the end they may as well rise rates, but I can see this been done artificially to cause a general market correction, including banks. I have sold today LLOY at break even, with my luck of recent it will start to go up from Monday.....but I am not going to chase it.
Some US indexes are at long term support trend line, and poised for a bounce if will happen or not is to be see. I struggle to think of any valid fundamental reason for a sustained bounce upward, and possibly the market need to correct much more before we find a floor. If this scenario is correct even banks that should benefit from artificial rate rise will struggle imo.
Without consumer confidences and spending, anything is struggling.

longtimeinvestor
just a bit concerned that the Fed is awaiting March to act.....

......Then again I watched a video recently on macroeconomics and inflation, suggesting that recent spike is indeed temporary due to covid/supply issues and in due course it will come down. In the mean time rate rise has started (not in US yet though)...very unpredictable times right now.