Member Info for LuckyLuciano

...here is someone wanting to buy on the cheap...

Call. Ne conspiracy theorist but I would not be surprised is a fund pop up soon with increased position rns. Tga sp has been marked down every day for the last week by mm, and so one at the company is making negative noise to help sp disruption. They whant pi out and II in.... Just my opinion.

I read it more in 2021 than 22

So..finally it seem we are going to get a trading update before year end....
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Dear Luciano,
Thank you for your mail. I am sorry to learn of your frustration.
With respect to the interim financial statements for the period ending 30 June 2021, we presented information on both an IFRS and Pro-forma basis (to assist shareholders in understanding the restructuring of the business ahead of the demerger). These results fairly present the performance and position of the company over the period, and have been prepared in accordance with IFRS, the JSE and LSE listing rules, and have been reviewed by Thungela’s auditors. The interim results are available for inspection on the Thungela website and the release was accompanied by an analyst/investor webinar held on the 13th of August. During this call the analyst and investor communities had the opportunity to ask questions regarding the interim financials. A replay and transcript of the call is also available on the Thungela website and can be accessed here: https://www.thungela.com/investors/investor-presentations
Thungela - Coal - Mining - South Africa
Capital Markets Day (6 May 2021) Thungela held a Capital Markets Day on Thursday 6 May 2021. At the virtual event, hosted by Thungela’s Chief Executive Officer July Ndlovu, July and his Executive Management Committee provided an update on the business and its near-term priorities.
www.thungela.com
.If you have any unanswered questions please send these through to me and I would be happy to provide clarity.



With respect to market communication, Thungela complies with the JSE and the LSE regulations governing disclosure obligations. These obligations require the company to keep shareholders informed of developments (both positive and negative) in the company’s sphere of activities that are not public knowledge - which if made public may have a material effect on the share price - and to notify the market of such information as soon as possible. Thus, while the strong prices are public knowledge, the matter relating to TFR performance and the potential impact on our business was not public and for this reason Thungela released the announcement on the SENS/RNS on Monday.

We continue to review the nature and frequency of our communications, and while at this stage it is not our intention to issue quarterly updates, we are considering issuing an operational update prior to the year-end close in order to assist shareholders in better understanding the operating performance of the business.

In the event that you have any questions regarding the announcement made on SENS/RNS on Monday please let me know and I will address these.

Once again, I am sorry to learn of your frustration and please do send through any questions you may have.



Thanks and kind regards,



Ryan Africa

Investor Relations

https://www.mining.com/web/chinas-commodity-prices-tumble-after-planner-mulls-coal-intervention/
Apparently from the article every country is trying to curb energy prices and coal.
Many analysts reiterated that high prices will persist for several months.
China unable to increase significantly coal production.
IMO a cold winter will see new record prices, in any case this is the ultimate show down on what can be done
to reduce prices, with China committed to do anything it can, this sound more an act of fear and desperation,
than a secure calm and controlled measured which will have any meaningful effect.

As mentioned another day candle with big shadow pushed up from 360ish support. Would be nice tomorrow a gap up opening and a blue day close.... Not easy but possible. Have emailed the company but PB department will email also other recipient within in the company. I have the feeling that this new outfit at the helm of a company needs some trial and errors b4 they get their act together. One can only hope though..

There are few email addresses to send enquire, I too will send a couple voicing my concern of lack of positive news but only negatives, and some trading updates.

Perfectly agree that this new guy in charge of Tga has no public relation skill what so ever, he seems able to transform a good new in to a bad one. lol
My view is that having found him self solely in charge of something, the enthusiasm got a bit out of hand, I mean he doesn't need to do hours long web interviews on geopolitical and macroeconomics of coal, like recently when his remarks on lower production caused a 10% drop in sp. Would be better if he would stick to resolving the Transnet situation..... Anyhow either he is going to learn from mistakes or it will be a bumpy ride to results, which in this conditions can only be mesmerising.

.... more over, although this tech is more irrelevant, i see in the last 3 days higher lows.

rylidan not sure about the meaning of "market confidence"
possibly market sentiments, but mainly the exact definition is market news flow....
In this circumstances sp has lost most of its fundamental intrinsic value, more so with Tga which recent financial results came from a restructuring business and operation.
Without this value base and moved by news flow sp is looking for support and resistance on technical, more than in any situation, for sure any catastrophic new would break those technical prices, but this is valid for any share out there.
IMO Tga is de-risking because we had many negatives news out there, some more specific to Tga than other, many of this news where close to non event but still caused an investor reaction. Ultimately what count is coal price and a market supportive of high prices....al will be revealed in a week or so, when cola prices will keep a some great levels and the market will start to realise that Chine ammunitions in curbing coal price are running out....
I am looking at 2 day candles for the past two days that have been pushed up from 360ish and today could prove the same.....

Great article CM and indeed coal is here to stay, unless it become uneconomical in a global way. More over the stuff is needed not only by China but India and even Europe hence the price will be sustained especially is we get a cold winter....
China has a huge problem with energy, its overproductions for export and massive population now requiring more comforts all need energy consumption which china doesn't have. Geographically China doesn't have any of the advantages that some other country have like sun in Africa, wind in UK, or oil and gas in SA and Russia....To keep power and control in the end CCP will have to bite the bullet and subsidise coal prices in short terms and possibly increase mining of coal in mid/long terms.

I am not pessimistic here just realist. China tried and succeeded to curb some commodities prices, Iron ore was a success story in curbing price, but this happened because China was consuming the majority of the stuff, been almost the only buyer from the moment they stop buying the price collapsed. IMO with coal is a differed story, it already show how misjudged was banning AU coal import, coal is needed globally and high gas/oil prices exacerbate this.....these two facts will keep the price of coal at higher levels. All they can do is to subsidise the coal market with internal production. Tga sp is suffering because is moving by sentiments not fundamental values, these prices are a great opportunity to buy a company that makes its market cap in cash also for the mid/long terms. A coal price at $150/t for 14.5 million tone export and 40% net profit are all very conservative numbers and yet it gives £3.90 sp in cash. Unfortunately financial results are still months away, they are badly needed to consolidate a new company and to give some visibility once out I am sure a PE multiple of 3/4 is on the card. For now we can only look at the coal prices and what effect has had the Chinese attempt to control it. Was about time that this show down in price control from China would happen, I was expecting this.....lets see what happens.

.... And beside China should be more concerned with cooking coal prices rather than termal coal. Sure popular urest for lack of electricity would be dangerous fot CCP but lack of industrial activity and shutting down busenes could piove even more damaging. Coal price above $200 was unsustainable we all know that, will be interesting to see how much China can do to curb prices. I am not pessimistic a long term average at $150 /t would be the right price under many angles. I am trying to see value in Tga with these shenarios.

They actually are reducing internal coal production prices by 100 Yuan, and limiting coal contracts exchange traded to max 10% move.
Is likely that coal export prices to china will settle a bit lower, but China still has only 16 day coal reserves and winter is coming. More over is not just China, is Indonesia and India and Tga sells most of its coal to these last two countries.
All in all I am still looking at average coal price for Tga of $150/t which is much lower than toady prices, for a cash flow of £530mill

Sorry the cross ram will be the only post.
Probably many here are already invested in Serica, but I wonder why taking imv a higher risk investing in Ukraine company with many issues unresolved, when with similar potential we have a UK company like Serica.
Also much bigger market cap and less volatile share, like for like because of Ukraine operation JKX will never be valued same multiples of Serica.

China has been trying to reduce coal price since ever. They managed to control iron ore price by shrinking steel production, a policy that will probably bite them in a different way, has steel prices consequently raised to the benefit of US steel makers. Now with cola what China is going to do, freeze the population to death, or stop producing everything????
Energy prices are very difficult if not impossible to control, unless you are the one that produce it, like Opec.
China depend on energy and all the can do is to open more coal mines, which are already doing.

What a joke this SA fund.....

Today looks a good day, some big buys coming in and just small change sales out.
Maybe recent news have flashed out small investors. Great to have all uncertainties cleared out from Tga, other coal socks have performed much better recently, now is Tga turn.

https://www.investing.com/analysis/conspiracy-or-incompetence-why-fossil-fuels-are-flying-200605464

Todays gas price drop likely find support at 4.75 or 50 day MA. consequently will keep coal price high.
Interesting week for energy prices.....
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