Member Info for LuckyLuciano

https://tass.com/politics/1411915
It may never happen but ........not a share to putt all your eggs for sure.

Going back to my 2022 revenue calculation, I am revising the $480mil at $80 boe price, I have not accounted for the portion of gas equivalent that would bring much lower revenue more neat $250mil, with gas prices similar to end of 2021. In which case you £100mil profit BaysilHope are more realistic.....

Hi BaysilHope
beside M&A ...and I hope they are not thinking about doing any M&A, at these high oil prices, because in theory every asset right now is expensive. My hope is on some drilling success, CNE has a busy drilling campaign, any success at this high energy prices would/should immediately translate in some sp appreciation, without the need to venture in new unknow asset purchase with all the associated initial management costs and unknowns. Given the current market forces and CNE fundamental and technical situation, a tender offer seems the very right decision I too would prefer though that the remaining $200mil would possibly increase the price of the tender offer in the form of dividend sometime in the future, rather than a share buy back. Share buy back are not accountable for....who is going to pocket the money if shares are not cancelled?

...I don't know fleccy to me she sound Romanian....but then again I am Italian, so what do I know about Russians. Anyway definitely not rap because she was white skin.
On other news Boris Johnson said that when it comes to sanctions to Russia noting is off the table......or at least please leave the booze and crisps....
Meanwhile Jo Biden in his last years of glory, sensing that sanctions wouldn't work, started to pull out funny faces on live television....Europeans were wondering is he was trying to scare away the Russians or if he was taking the ****, thinking at how much more money now European citizen will have to pay on energy bills.

FYR 2022 earnings could hit $140m or £110m divided by 350m shares is 31p EPS x 8 PE ratio equates £2.40-2.50, excluding any material M&A in this year. GLA============
Indeed but possibly profit for 2022 could come a bit higher?!
Please correct me if wrong...Egypt in 2022 at 40000boepd should bring 14.6mil boe, at 41% revenue entitlement and $80 boe price makes some $480 million, add earn out from North Sea some $150mil (all rough numbers ) makes $630 mil total rev for 2022. Costs Capex at $200mil, Egypt opex ($6 x 14.6mil boe production) $87.6mil. We have $630mil less $287.6 mil = $324.4 mil. I am sure there are other deduction to make in the same way that total capex could come higher or possibly lower for 2022. Then there is this item called Depletion and amortisation charges, I am not accountant but it shouldn't affect directly the bottom line profit for PE calculation. Again I am not saying that forward PE for CNE is something like 3, but possibly is lower than 8

A higher sp price for tender would be good to unstuck CNE from current resistance price level, which is been there for the last 3 years. below link shows CNE, Serica and oil price chart comparison and without making any direct comparison with Serica it shows that CNE has not cached up with current oil price trend, possibly due to technical reasons among other things.
The green line is CNE sp resistance....
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_0481c77b80879e54f21d421394070468.png

...no doubt also us private share holders will be able to participate but is more likely that a financial institution will benefit the most. Another plausible scenario without conspiracy theories is if the BoD is hoping that not all the tender offer will be taken up and there will be some cash left in the kitty...for working capital, if that is a possible outcome...

With the tender offer one plausible reason is if the BoD wants some friendly financial institution investors, to buy shares on the cheap.. Say it comes out at 180p and a financial company buy the lots, they will have a good advantage on us shareholders...right?
Only time will tell but no doubt an offer lower than current share price would be a steal....

wokinpark
I have misunderstood some you previous post....
On tender I am no expert here...but isn't it like a share buy back?
If that is the case and assuming that atm CNE share price is suppressed or undervalued, it seems a good thing for share holders.....Obviously is important at what price it will be done and nobody know that....but assuming it happens near current price should be good, possibly better than dividends, if one assume that increasing production in higher oil prices will translate in more cf and dividends.....Possibly the BoD will set a price slightly higher than market price just to entice current holders to sell, but at the same time not pay too much for the tender. A high tender price would also show how confident is the BoD of future prospect and potential profits for the company. Al guess work ....

I know this interpretation of sp is too simplistic, especially after reading all the accurate financial numbers on this board.
So please take it with a pinch of salt and excuse me for the drivels.
I am looking at CNE sp chart since before 2020 and trying to add events that have taken place in to the sp.
Please excuse my presumption but I think the market got stuck with a mix of technical trading and fundamental value events and is currently miss-pricing CNE share value.
First of all just to say yes...I am invested in CNE.
Back to the chart oil price due to pandemic has capitulated on sprig 2020, hence CNE sp.
This imv is the first event that a distorted the rest of valuation of sp. having reached a new low for almost 20 years have till now disconnected the market with current price and value, in relation to oil price. May some uncertainty is due to recent volatility created by non economical events due to geopolitical tensions, but oil price was rising and should stay high also due to reopening of the economies and end of pandemic, beside obviously Opec agenda.
Back to the chart it seems to me that CNE is stuck in a trading technical channel with strong resistance at these levels, but this doesn't reflect the true value of the share. Perversely one would assume that once the tender is out of the sp and CNE is back at for example....£140, then its true value will start to be priced in and the sp will rise....

Hi
Future prospects are another 100 millions barrel exploration target in Egypt, production increasing in a high macro economical oil price. Other drilling success elsewhere..
Management is running a company with net cash, in a high inflationary environment.
About tender price I doubt the BoD will sell at this price so no games played here, but please give an example of game play for low tender price....and what you mean a decent tender price? Is it a price one would lose out in selling?

Theosus
ban on the problem....
Unfortunately this is something happening all over the Western world..
Complacency, arrogance, and self-centred interest are the virtue of most Western politicians...Just listening a press news interview with Russian foreign minister Lavrov, he gave a nice bloody nose to all those puppet journalists from the West asking stupid questions. By the way imv Russia is going for a complete change of political administration in Ukraine..

MVarawa what a lot of cr@p......Check your info before opening the toilet.
On Khan been a second generation immigrant, you came across a dam right ******, no surprise this country is ever more isolated....Thanks to people like you. On London been the great financial invention of all times, please check the history of banking and finance......it has been going on for thousands of years.

Strange turn around on US.
Either some Russio/dollar are funnelling in to the market after the sanctions, or after the invasion the market is repricing...

Woodstock1970 unfortunately even worst than that.....
Ignorance means to ignore....and one in this case could give the benefit of the doubt.
But I am pretty sure many politicians in many circumstance know very well the suffering they can cause to innocent people, when they make certain decisions or sometime they chose to ignore certain issues. I will never excuse exasperating the Russian regime when at the same time allowing dirty oligarch money to be recycled in Europe. Or for example do you think that Biden really cares if all of the sudden a much larger and dangerous was escalate in Europe? Let hope the Russian don't decide to invade any Nato country because I am not so sure how many US soldiers will be willing to fight for Estonians for example....

Going back to the original question, how Russia will retaliate, well, as things stand probably lots of vodka shots to celebrate....... About many people in uk that don't speak English as first language, I know also quite fiew English people that when they speak you wouldn't think they were born in uk. Maybe was a bad idea to make good scholarship so expencise and the complain if better educated foreigners come to this country to steel jobs... Ps. Sorry as European soon or later I had to say this to someone...

Indeed chill out a bit people...talks of ww3, end of the world....come ooooon.
The West new all along that this would have happen, wasn't Biden keep saying that Putin will invade for the last 2 weeks? Was he bluffing or did he mean it? In any case noting that the West could do about it. The West (Ukraine) has been harassing Russian speaking citizen in some regions of Ukraine since 2014 Crimea incident...France and Germany together with US have not been able to resolve that problem, maybe they though....o well another chase to sell more army to Ukraine, or maybe they are simply useless puppets at the mercy of multinationals that fund their struggle to remain in power. I am not lefty as much as I am not pro total uncontrolled capitalism, but beside ideologies nobody can deny that there as been killing going on in these Ukrainian regions since Crimea.. maybe now this will stop, in which case Putin will come out a winner. Indeed is now even more in the West interest to create conflicts in occupied regions than before....

Falky I though you was already living in the future pub wise....

No way Putin would attak members of Nato he is not stupid Nd he has not support at home or escono. I al interest anyway.

Nato, Un, Europe, UK, and even Soviet Union.... All massive bulls@it made for the people to believe that there is a system and everything is under controll, to give a sense of security. In the end is a free for all out there, people make decision thinking that is all figured about and planned when at best they/we can just manage to make decision based on what we know here and right now, some time one second one minute is already a distant future...... Possibly the Chinese have the best political model on how to run a country, decentralised power in a dictatureship regime.